-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
- Status
Ilovesnow28
Member
As of 10:00 am this morning I'm seeing it snow a little down here in Tuscaloosa and it's still snowing some right now or should I say snow flurries...
I can 110% confirm I was driving home from Greenville Memorial at 2:30am and it was 37 degrees and pouring rain. Never a transition to sleet. The rain was wet and pretty though
snowlover91
Member
Not sure why wxsouth was showing sleet in a lot of the areas they were. The 3km NAM and soundings from other models indicated this would be mainly ZR in the mountains with some sleet/snow mixing in those areas but nothing nearly as far south/east as what wxsouth shows. The only model that showed what they did was the HRRR and it is notoriously bad with thermal profiles in winter weather events from what I've seen. I would call this a win for the 3km NAM and the FV3 GFS did remarkably well as did the Euro.
Gonna be hard to hit the forecast high if around 40. Still sitting at 31 per the truck thermometer.
packfan98
Moderator
There was a big push of cold air at 925 that could have caused sleet to mix in. Take a look:
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
There was a big push of cold air at 925 that could have caused sleet to mix in. Take a look:
Sleet actually did mix in according to a friend in the Statesville area so the HRRR was right in identifying the potential threat of IP
drfranklin
Member
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2016
- Messages
- 474
- Reaction score
- 687
I drove from near DT Greenville, SC to Gaffney this AM (leaving Greenville at 6:30am) - 2m air temp at my house was just above 37 - as I drove into Spartanburg county, the temp dropped to 34 with snow and sleet mix - arriving in Gaffney, it was all sleet and 34 degrees
Yeah at times there was sleet mixing in at Salisbury nc but not much
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Anyone else from the central-western piedmont of NC see any sleet or sleet/rain mix this morning? (I'll be making another retrospective winter storm map later tomorrow on the storm so it would help!)
olhausen
Member
Work up to the first snow/ Dusting of the season. Temp has not been above 37 or 38 for the last 2 days and is currently at 32.4 with very light flurries every now and then. Definitely a great start to what I hope is an amazing winter.
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
It wasn't widespread, at least from reports I've seen across the areas wxsouth mentioned. Sure some patches where it may have mixed in due to higher rates but not widespread sleet. The 3km NAM did quite well in forecasting the areas that saw ice IMO.
Nomanslandva
Member
We may have had a very little sleet but I never saw any, even way up here. We dodged a bullet though. mainly 31-32 at the height of things. Had it been 29-30 like many models forecast, we would have had terrible power issues with so many oaks with leaves still on them.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It wasn't widespread, at least from reports I've seen across the areas wxsouth mentioned. Sure some patches where it may have mixed in due to higher rates but not widespread sleet. The 3km NAM did quite well in forecasting the areas that saw ice IMO.
There were reports of sleet in the western suburbs of the Charlotte metro area, Kannapolis, Sailsbury, and sleet was so heavy in areas east of the mountains like Rutherford & Cleveland counties that it was beginning to accumulate on some of the roadways.
WUS82 KGSP 151403
SPSGSP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
903 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018
NCZ056-068-508-151615-
Catawba-Cleveland-Greater Rutherford-
Including the cities of Hickory, Newton, St. Stephens, Shelby,
Kings Mountain, Forest City, Rutherfordton, and Spindale
903 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018
...POCKETS OF SLEET PRODUCING SLICK ROADS REPORTED ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING...
Pockets of sleet have been reported this morning across portions
of eastern and northern Rutherford County, especially near the
South Mountains. This has resulted in some slick roads.
Additional sleet may be seen across portions of western Catawba
and northern Cleveland Counties before the precipitation tapers
off between now and 10 AM.
If sleet-covered roads are encountered, slow down and allow
plenty of space between yourself and surrounding vehicles.
Rosie
Member
Flurries!
ok i just saw some flakes. very very tiny. the kind only a snow lover would see, but, it is indeed snow. Logged on to see if anyone else in GA saw some, so thanks Rosie.
snowlover91
Member
Here’s why I say the HRRR did bad. Here was the sleet forecast map it showed before the event started. The sleet was nowhere nearly as widespread as it modeled. It’s known for poorly handling thermal profiles and p-type. I’ve been burned by it in the past before I realized that it has a bias of this, something important for our area since events are always so marginal.
The RGEM did very well, it seems to handle CAD quite well but sometimes is too cold.
CMC was also solid.
Overall I think the best 3 models were the RGEM, CMC, and the 3km/12km NAM.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yes, I already recognized that the area of sleet wasn't anywhere near as widespread or intense as the HRRR forecast on some of its runs but it did actually sleet over a "widespread" area unlike you previously claimed and accumulate in many spots well east of the mountains (and as far south as nearly to GSP (sleet was also reported in Gaffney, SC), but the HRRR was the only model to even show this as a remote possibility. You also have to keep in mind that most trace/light accumulating events go unreported, I've studied many storms just like this one and that's by far & away the largest reporting bias in historical records of winter wx around here. The reports that are available from yesterday via social media and personal communication clearly suggest the area of sleet stretched as far east as portions of the Charlotte metro. It's not a total bust and that has to be given due consideration imo in the context of other NWP, and if you blended w/ the other models it makes sense to include the potential for a brief period of sleet east of the mountains when heavier precipitation arrived in the morning hours yesterday, that's likely what I would have forecasted and many mentioned it as a possibility during the morning. Going full boar on the HRRR and suggesting we'd see up to an inch of sleet is reckless in light of everything that was going on, but not even considering it as a possibility when you looked at other modeling wasn't the right way to handle this either. A compromise solution between the HRRR and other NWP was closest to reality.
Last edited:
snowlover91
Member
Read what I said again, I said it wasn’t as widespread as what wxsouth showed and had previously mentioned that sleet wasn’t nearly as far south/east as he or the HRRR were showing. Within that context, yes, the sleet wasn’t as widespread as what wxsouth or the HRRR indicated. I think when you look at what happened, the areas that saw more than just a quick burst of sleet and actually saw sustained sleet for a few hours, the RGEM, CMC and to a lesser extent 3km NAM ended up handling things quite well. These models indicated the potential for bursts of sleet in other areas via soundings, 925mb temp predictions, etc but they didn’t depict sustained sleet for hours in areas that saw only a few bursts or even none at all like the HRRR did. We may have a difference of opinion on performance/expectations here and that’s fine, I’m just sharing my experience and why I don’t like or use the HRRR or even consider blending it. There are better models like the RGEM and 3km/12km NAM to use for blending the data and making a forecast, IMO. To each his own!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Don't get snappy with me... Yes, I read what you said. My point is which I've made pretty clear from the beginning & I'll reiterate again is that HRRR was the only model to show even a quick burst of IP east of the mountains which did in fact happen but wasn't as widespread as forecast. However, it actually was in fact a pretty widespread area that saw sleet in some way, shape, or form, east of the Appalachians unlike you previously claimed, areas west of Charlotte in the far SW piedmont picked up a quick dusting from it in fact.
This is where we diverge.
Last edited:
- Status