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Possible Snow & Ice Threat Nov 14-15

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Nov 8, 2018.

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  1. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    The GFS, CMC, ICON and the Euro esembles are showing a possible snow threat around Nov 13-14.
     
  2. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Someone post eurp members please
     
  3. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    Euro control half inch SC jackpot is 30 miles to my south. Right where we want it. I’d feel better if it weren’t early November. This is the type of setup that sucks you in and let’s you down at the last minute around here. I know better
     
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  4. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    Yeah I would certainly not expect the current models to play out verbatim since it's unheard of for this time of year. If we see some snow showers here that would be a nice bonus though.
     
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  5. NoSnowATL

    NoSnowATL Member

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    Dang straight, snow flurries would definitely be a win this time of year.
     
  6. Jimmy Hypocracy

    Jimmy Hypocracy Member

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    Yeah we’ve got 2 things working against us. High pressure location and climo. I will stay on my toes nonetheless
     
  7. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Well, not really; here's a series from 2005 and 2008, both Thanksgiving week ... just south of Rosie in Blairsville ...

    2005.1.jpg 2005.3.jpg 2005.4.jpg 2005.5.jpg 2005.jpg 2008.1.jpg 2008.3.jpg 2008.4.jpg 2008.jpg
     
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  8. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    I was actually referring to this area not Blairsville. Would be rare to have accumulating snow here so early.
     
  9. Rosie

    Rosie Supporter Member

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  10. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Gotcha, but ... close enough ... :confused:
     
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  11. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    You would be surprised at the difference in weather between Cumming and Blairsville. They were enjoying normal fall type weather while we were baking last month.
     
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  12. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] 18z icon
     
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  13. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    System looks a bit faster on 18z GFS.
     
  14. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  15. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    And it's based off the 12z anyways so..
     
  16. NorthGaWinter4

    NorthGaWinter4 Member

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    I’ll be happy to see flurries but a thread this early in the season is fun
     
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  17. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    18z gefs looks better than 12z lol
     
  18. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] more members this run join the fun
     
  19. accu35

    accu35 Member

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  20. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Nomanslandva

    Nomanslandva Member

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    All (most) of the EUROs snow and ice is after Wed next week hour 168. Does not look like the other model have that trailing wave.
     
  22. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Maybe for VA. For GA and SC I saw around the 13. From earlier :
    [​IMG]
     
  23. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    2E770C53-34BD-4F91-AA62-2F8D3ABB1388.jpeg Mic drop!
     
  24. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    C66EFD12-5ECB-4B9C-9E95-5DB4FEFFD3BF.png Close the thread!! B Rad has spoken!
     
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  25. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    I ran back to the Dec storm last year and had a look at what we were looking at. Looks like it was a similar setup, but this one is weaker and the main low is further NE. Also, we are a month behind and the temps are a bit warmer in addition to the angle being sharper. Other point is look at how that storm was. 7 days before the storm the thread was created and this one is 5, but the runs I saw had the same time difference. A lot will change between now and the 13th.
    On the other hand...
    This is a good practice run for the disappointment train so get the oil ready because this one isn't going to be anything like the December storm. I'm certain we won't have anything outside the mountains except a few flurries at best.
    But then again I underplayed the December storm by a lot...
    Oh well let's just sit back and enjoy the thread that we get to open early.
     
  26. Will Rossman

    Will Rossman Member

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    My own LIX NWS office disco mentioning the possibility of light sleet for the earlier event on Sunday morning, but no mention of any winter wx for the 11/13 system.
     
  27. SimeonNC

    SimeonNC Supporter Member

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    What model was this based on lol[​IMG]

    Sent from my Z983 using Tapatalk
     
  28. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Lol Their in house model I'm sure.
    [​IMG]
     
  29. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    Showing some snow here. Would be awesome to see anything this early
     
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  30. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    Looks almost identical to their forecast for here. You won't see NWS be that bullish that's for sure!
    Screenshot_2018-11-08-20-48-43.jpg
     
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