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Wintry Palm Sunday NC and VA Winter Storm

I don't know if this means anything but has anyone noticed that the forecasted temps for tomorrow have been consistently dropping, at least where I live the forecast temp is now only 45.
 
I really think that map will end up about 50 miles northward like the 3KM Nam had shown and mainly be a northern most NC, S Va "storm". Like Webber said though, temperatures are really borderline and a 1-2 degree drop from the model would make a world of difference.
 
Belly up to the bar gang, here comes the first round of Happy Hour

refcmp_ptype.us_ma.png
 
Wow, the NAM is way further north. Gives me half a foot while every other model is way south and leaves me with nothing.
 
This is a butload of frontogenesis (contoured in magenta)...
Near and just to the north of this is most likely where the most lifting/ascent, and dynamic cooling is occurring and thus where the p-type may be changing over to heavy, wet snow possibly mixed w/ sleet.
nam3km_temp_adv_fgen_850_seus_39.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
This is a butload of frontogenesis (contoured in magenta)...
Near and just to the north of this is most likely where the most lifting/ascent, and dynamic cooling is occurring and thus where the p-type may be changing over to heavy, wet snow possibly mixed w/ sleet.
View attachment 4765
Click to expand...

If you get underneath this band you're probably going to be stuck there for a while considering the large-scale storm motion is nearly parallel to the frontogenetical forcing axis.
 
I’m gonna call it now, Roxboro 2-4” of snow/sleet!
 
I just don't know what to believe? Euro has been steady with big snows here, and most models have a good snow here. RNK finally went with WWA maybe 2-4 with mixing. I just can't remember something coming from the NW and dropping that much QPF here in the foothills, Usually NW systems we get down sloping? It wouldn't surprise me if we end up with hardly anything...
Surry-
Including the city of Dobson
401 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO NOON
EDT SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...Mostly clear this evening, then becoming partly
cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Northwest winds around 10 mph this
evening, becoming light and variable.
.SATURDAY...Rain likely or a chance of snow in the morning, then
rain or snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation up to 1 inch.
Much cooler with highs in the upper 30s. Light and variable
winds. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Rain. Snow or sleet in the evening, then sleet,
freezing rain and snow after midnight. Snow and sleet
accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace.
Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...Mostly cloudy. Sleet likely or a chance of rain or snow
showers in the morning, then a slight chance of rain showers in
the afternoon. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Highs
around 40. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
70 percent.
 
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