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Wintry Midsouth Winter Storm January 12th-13th

FFC's current take on this system. They think we could see more than just the mountains getting flurries. Seems to go with the Euro's idea.
With surface low basically traversing the northern sections of the
forecast area, first inclinations would be that instability may be
hard to come by. But with such a dynamic system, it appears strong
diffluence aloft may aid in the development of elevated convective
elements north and surface based to the south. 50 to 60 knot low
level jet could be enough to allow for some localized strong to
severe storms as well.

On the back side of the system, much colder air will stream into
the area. Column max temperature profile indicates all temps
going below 0C quite quickly as wrap around moisture moves in. For
now, will introduce a mix of rain/snow for the higher elevations
but this may need expansion with subsequent runs should model
trends continue.
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ForsythSnow said:
Yeah, this is a TN special at this point if you ride the NAM. I decided to throw my NAM ticket away and take the Euro train. Anyone else aboard?
snku_acc.us_ov.png
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Looks like an Ohio Valley special to me. Thats an insane cutoff near Indy. Nothing to 14" in like 30 miles.
 
If the NAM/CMC & EURO go toward the GFS... I'm not sure what to think about these models anymore lol
 
I bet we trend back SE where north bama looks better in future runs. Who want to bet?
 
accu35 said:
I bet we trend back SE where north bama looks better in future runs. Who want to bet?
Click to expand...
I bet the opposite. Pretty soon all of us will be looking at a severe weather threat over a snow threat. One more NW jump like that and TN gets way less snow and more ice to the west. Hope it doesn't, because then we would be looking at worse of a severe threat and that I'm not looking forward to.
 
Why are people acting like this is trending bad ??? This was never an ideal setup for Alabama , Georgia or east Tennessee. This has always been a good setup for northern Mississippi and West Tennessee. I think some people have unrealistic expectations of your SE of those areas. Things will change over the next 48 hours but this has always been a system that favors the NW parts of the region

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Why are people acting like this is trending bad ??? This was never an ideal setup for Alabama , Georgia or east Tennessee. This has always been a good setup for northern Mississippi and West Tennessee. I think some people have unrealistic expectations of your SE of those areas. Things will change over the next 48 hours but this has always been a system that favors the NW parts of the region

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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I think at best, this is a Plateau westward storm for TN but obviously anything can happen. I never count on snow in Nashville unless I see it falling from the sky.
 
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