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Tropical Major Hurricane Michael

Latest sonde into Michael's eye shows the minimum central pressure has fallen to near 943 hPa given the 945 reading w/ 20 KT wind. The hurricane hunters vortex data message (VDM) also shows the eyewall is still open on the SW side. Amazing how much this storm has intensified in spite of this, likely doing so via the asymmetric route I alluded to Tue morning on twitter.

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Webberweather53 said:
Latest sonde into Michael's eye shows the minimum central pressure has fallen to near 943 hPa given the 945 reading w/ 20 KT wind. The hurricane hunters vortex data message (VDM) also shows the eyewall is still open on the SW side. Amazing how much this storm has intensified in spite of this, likely doing so via the asymmetric route I alluded to Tue morning on twitter.

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You think it will close before landfall?


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In regards to the NW trend we always tend to see with winter storms, is a NW trend something that applies to tropical systems as well?
 
"Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States."
 
StoneMtnWx said:
Goodness...to think those low slp on Euro/HMON/HWRF could actually verify...
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It's already within striking distance & stronger than what the HWRF was initially predicting a few days ago near landfall.

packfan98 said:
Wow! I was thinking it would start to weaken by now.
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It's likely closer to 939 or 940 but given how close extrapolated MSLP has been to actual MSLP verified by sondes, I wouldn't think they'll differ much beyond a millibar or so here.
 
deltadog03 said:
Eric, I think he prob. has 1 good last shot to try and hit Cat 5, what you think?
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Chances are small, because the environment is far from perfect, he's still a long ways from getting there atm, and shelf waters will limit the integrated amount of fuel he has to work with but the closing of the eyewall makes a category 5 a legitimate, albeit small possibility because now Michael will be able to intensify more quickly.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Chances are small, because the environment is far from perfect, he's still a long ways from getting there atm, and shelf waters will limit the integrated amount of fuel he has to work with but the closing of the eyewall makes a category 5 a legitimate, albeit small possibility because now Michael will be able to intensify more quickly.
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I agree. I am still amazed it took this long to close the eyewall fully and be as strong as it is .def definitely not the typical northern GOM hurricane for sure
 
deltadog03 said:
I agree. I am still amazed it took this long to close the eyewall fully and be as strong as it is .def definitely not the typical northern GOM hurricane for sure
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Agreed, the process of asymmetric intensification via persistent/large vortical hot towers is what was able to allow Michael to intensify despite that.
 
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