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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

anyone have the 8pm update yet?


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Absolutely no planes in Florida at all!!
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SD said:
Just making a point the best model and the official source for forecasts say the west motion will begin. Still waiting on east of Fl like the 0z nam lol lol

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Is the ULL as strong as forecast though on those models in real time?
 
gawxnative said:
I do not recall ever seeing the widespread "draining" action with a tropical system.. Is this due to the overall size of the windfield?
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Our friend lives in Mobile she posted way earlier in the day that the water in the canal behind her house was being pulled out. I would think it is just her size and isn't the gulf more shallow? It's still crazy to me that she has been pulling that much water from so far away.
 
One thing to remember the more extratropical this becomes the more this gets in the Euros wheelhouse. Don't be surprised to see it suddenly jerk her westward, the ULL over south AL has already captured it.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I think that if Irma stays too far east, the winds will be much more gusty up here due to the center being closer. But then again, we could have the same due to a weaker storm.
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FFC mentioned exactly what you are saying in their morning discussion. Essentially said the two solutions would have the same results for us


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ForsythSnow said:
I think that if Irma stays too far east, the winds will be much more gusty up here due to the center being closer. But then again, we could have the same due to a weaker storm.
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You'd think the more east the system is the more gusty the bands on the eastern side will be. Either way there is a steep pressure gradient so winds will be strong regardless

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SD said:
I will say Irma being over Fl is a win for the gfs. Euro was too far west

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That’s very true. But to the people who don’t think it’s gonna get captured and pulled NW.... guess what.... GFS does it too.
 
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