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Tropical Major Hurricane Harvey

metwannabe said:
Alrighty then....

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_9.png
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The Euro is the new CMC, either that or things are about to go nuts. I seriously only think the west 2 have a chance.
 
Ok so the NOAA G-IV are conducting synoptic surveillance (the image I shared earlier from twitter) but when is Recon scheduled to check on what's going on.... tomorrow I presume?
 
It's probably going to take Harvey about 48 hours or so from now to shake off the upper low to its N-NW and mix out the dry air it's going to ingest to its west, in addition to being able to generate enough PV to sustain a very robust, *singular* LLC given that the central portion of the wave axis has been completely devoid of convection for the past 18 hours or so. There also may be multiple competing centers at least for the first day or two in Harvey's life over the Gulf as is normally the case w/ large tropical cyclones that form in/around the Yucatan Peninsula, like we recently saw with Tropical Storm Cindy... Thus, I think it's safe to assume that intensification of Harvey is likely to be slow and relatively muted thru at least Thursday night or so with these aforementioned preconditions being considered. Thereafter, as it approaches northern Mexico, Texas, and/or Louisiana coastline, throws enough heat at the cold core upper low to its N-NW that's attempting to shear it and begins to establish a poleward outflow channel into the mid latitude jet bisecting the upper south and OH/TN valleys, intensification may continue more in earnest once/if the inner core of the system organizes. There's also a window for some decent last second intensification once it nears the TX and/or Louisiana coast due to localized frictional convergence... A 55-70 kt tropical cyclone (a large/lumbering, upper end tropical storm to a low-mid grade category 1 hurricane) would be a somewhat reasonable first guess approximation as to what to expect along the NW gulf coast atm imo...

The short range HWRF forecasts showcase what I'm talking about here, with multiple, competing centers, dry air especially in the mid levels, and some modest wind shear being present through at least the next 48 hours as Harvey attempts to consolidate an inner core and intensify.

hwrf_mslp_wind_09L_11.png

hwrf_tcx_09L_7.png
 
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221504
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 22 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- N0AA 49
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0000Z
B NOAA2 0809A HARVEY B. NOAA9 0909A HARVEY
C. 23/1400Z C. 23/1730Z
D. 22.2N 92.8W D. NA
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2130Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z A. 24/0600Z
B AFXXX 1009A HARVEY B. NOAA2 1109A HARVEY
C. 23/2115Z C. 24/0200Z
D. 22.7N 93.2W D. 23.2N 93.6W
E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 72
A. 24/1200Z A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA9 1209A HARVEY B. AFXXX 1309A HARVEY
C. 24/0530Z C. 24/0945Z
D. NA D. 23.8N 94.1W
E. NA E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES STARTING AT 24/2100Z
B. A P-3 MISSION FOR 24/1800Z

3. REMARKS: ALL MISSIONS ON SUSPECT AREA IN THE BAHAMAS
CANCELED BY 22/1130Z.

Better format here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml
 
pcbjr said:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 221504
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT TUE 22 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 23/1100Z TO 24/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-083

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION HARVEY
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO -- N0AA 49
A. 23/1800Z A. 24/0000Z
B NOAA2 0809A HARVEY B. NOAA9 0909A HARVEY
C. 23/1400Z C. 23/1730Z
D. 22.2N 92.8W D. NA
E. 23/1600Z TO 23/2130Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 42
A. 23/2330Z,24/0530Z A. 24/0600Z
B AFXXX 1009A HARVEY B. NOAA2 1109A HARVEY
C. 23/2115Z C. 24/0200Z
D. 22.7N 93.2W D. 23.2N 93.6W
E. 23/2300Z TO 24/0530Z E. 24/0400Z TO 24/0730Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE -- NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX -- TEAL 72
A. 24/1200Z A. 24/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA9 1209A HARVEY B. AFXXX 1309A HARVEY
C. 24/0530Z C. 24/0945Z
D. NA D. 23.8N 94.1W
E. NA E. 24/1100Z TO 24/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE 3-HRLY FIXES STARTING AT 24/2100Z
B. A P-3 MISSION FOR 24/1800Z

3. REMARKS: ALL MISSIONS ON SUSPECT AREA IN THE BAHAMAS
CANCELED BY 22/1130Z.

Better format here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml
Click to expand...
Thanks I actually read that on their site (I'm familiar) I should've worded by statement better, guess I was wondering if there had been any updates to that schedule but obviously nothing has changed enough to update that (been a long day)
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's probably going to take Harvey about 48 hours or so from now to shake off the upper low to its N-NW and mix out the dry air it's going to ingest to its west, in addition to being able to generate enough PV to sustain a very robust, *singular* LLC given that the central portion of the wave axis has been completely devoid of convection for the past 18 hours or so. There also may be multiple competing centers at least for the first day or two in Harvey's life over the Gulf as is normally the case w/ large tropical cyclones that form in/around the Yucatan Peninsula, like we recently saw with Tropical Storm Cindy... Thus, I think it's safe to assume that intensification of Harvey is likely to be slow and relatively muted thru at least Thursday night or so with these aforementioned preconditions being considered. Thereafter, as it approaches northern Mexico, Texas, and/or Louisiana coastline, throws enough heat at the cold core upper low to its N-NW that's attempting to shear it and begins to establish a poleward outflow channel into the mid latitude jet bisecting the upper south and OH/TN valleys, intensification may continue more in earnest once/if the inner core of the system organizes. There's also a window for some decent last second intensification once it nears the TX and/or Louisiana coast due to localized frictional convergence... A 55-70 kt tropical cyclone (a large/lumbering, upper end tropical storm to a low-mid grade category 1 hurricane) would be a somewhat reasonable first guess approximation as to what to expect along the NW gulf coast atm imo...

The short range HWRF forecasts showcase what I'm talking about here, with multiple, competing centers, dry air especially in the mid levels, and some modest wind shear being present through at least the next 48 hours as Harvey attempts to consolidate an inner core and intensify.

View attachment 887

View attachment 888
Click to expand...


That is the thing that is easy to forget. A good 95% of these TCs in this area take much longer to get organized than expected. It's very easy to go all gung-ho on quick organization and then it never occur.
 
GFS has been trending weaker each run since last night and the euro has never been as strong as some other models so maybe weaker solutions are more legit
 
This would be a problem . Not directly related to possible Harvey but something that's news worthy


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gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_31.png
im thinking that this could go more east if it go back over open water for second landfall
 
Storm5 said:
Haha yep 979


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Not impossible. Warm water and some jet interaction to the north. I'm curious to see if the trough captures it like the cmc shows or if it's slower like the Euro and GFS

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SD said:
Not impossible. Warm water and some jet interaction to the north. I'm curious to see if the trough captures it like the cmc shows or if it's slower like the Euro and GFS

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I hope the trough captures. Not sure I can handle Harvey for 10 days


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Storm5 said:
I hope the trough captures. Not sure I can handle Harvey for 10 days


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Looks like about half of the 12z gefs went that way with those having the low in Illinois/Indiana by Wednesday. It's not impossible but neither is this getting left in Texas for a really long time

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