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Pattern Jarring January

CMC brings well below normal temperatures back after hour 168. Enjoy your couple days of warmth
 
Even at the end of the GFS run there's lots of Arctic air in southern Canada right near the US border. Nice patch of -35 2m temps
 
#winning

gfs_T2ma_us_47.png
 
has anyone noticed the low on the Florida coast on the Euro? Its been there a few runs now(but only on the Euro not the other models)... almost looks tropical????

Very bizarre for January and even moreso considering it was snowing in Florida 4 days ago :p

It's also really weird because the Euro during hurricane season is usually the last model to show anything
 
The tendency of model consensus since yesterday has been to maintain or even intensify the strong warmup for later this week but also to intensify the cooldown for early next week. The warmup after the cooldown largely remains. That's the key period to start watching to see whether or not many of us would be off at least on the timing with a warm dominated pattern starting just after mid month. So far, I don't see being off on that warming, especially based on the progged -PNA/+EPO and aided by MJO phases 4-5 early on as well as the lack of -NAO/-AO but wx predictions are rarely ever slam dunks.
 
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Didn't we have someone say that it doesn't look like we're going to have that typical permanent flip to a La Nina like pattern that you usually get yet earlier in this thread?

I do absolutely understand what a La Nina means normally but if it's not going to act like that...
 
pcbjr said:
Not going into specifics yet (e.g., MJO traveling; PNA) but it is a very real possibility ...
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Just to clarify, even most warm dominated patterns have short cold spells, which I'd expect, including when the MJO rotates around toward favorable phases for SE cold. All I'm saying is that I'm expecting overall 1/16/2018-2/28/2018 temperatures to average at least a couple of degrees warmer than normal for the SE as a whole. That being said, it may only be something like 2-3 degrees, which would be FAR colder than 1/16/2017-2/28/2017 and many months of the last 2 years.
 
GaWx said:
Just to clarify, even most warm dominated patterns have short cold spells, which I'd expect, including when the MJO rotates around toward favorable phases for SE cold. All I'm saying is that I'm expecting overall 1/16/2018-2/28/2018 temperatures to average at least a couple of degrees warmer than normal for the SE as a whole. That being said, it may only be something like 2-3 degrees, which would be FAR colder than 1/16/2017-2/28/2017 and many months of the last 2 years.
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Larry,
Was not in any manner taking issue with anything you said. I just look at MJO and many of the models (not all, mind you) have it getting back inside the circle and trending left, and looking at the PNA cycle over the past 4 months, if (if) the cycle repeats, then there may be something to watch in about 14 - 21 days. We'll see, but you know ... they can't even call T-storm 2 hours out ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
Was not in any manner taking issue with anything you said. I just look at MJO and many of the models (not all, mind you) have it getting back inside the circle and trending left, and looking at the PNA cycle over the past 4 months, if (if) the cycle repeats, then there may be something to watch in about 14 - 21 days. We'll see, but you know ... they can't even call T-storm 2 hours out ... ;)
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I'm still waiting to get the first colder than normal month in Sav in 2 years! I may finally get it this month! Odds are quite high despite the progged warmup since the first half will end up very cold.
 
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