• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Jarring January

ForsythSnow said:
Yep. And the weeklies look cold rolling into March. It's going to be a fun February.
Click to expand...

Yep, the Siberian express kicks into gear later this week as a big blocking high goes up over NE Eurasia and the Bering Sea and goes right on thru to the end of February, dumping the coldest air in the Northern hemisphere straight into east-central Canada and the Great Lakes for several weeks straight. Fantastic looking pattern from February 5th & beyond.
 
does the fact that -80 F temps in Siberia were observed play into the strength of this upcoming arctic spell in Feb, if it indeed sets up?
 
Here's the Euro weeklies through the end of February. It's an all-you-can-eat buffet of high-latitude north Pacific blocking through mid-late February. The very coherent, robust MJO signal in the eastern hemisphere and relatively frequent appearance of this anomalous planetary wave pattern since the 2012-13 winter lends confidence to its verification even after week 2.
output_25zYwk.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's the Euro weeklies through the end of February. It's an all-you-can-eat buffet of high-latitude north Pacific blocking through mid-late February. The very coherent, robust MJO signal in the eastern hemisphere and relatively frequent appearance of this anomalous planetary wave pattern since the 2012-13 winter lends confidence to its verification even after week 2.
output_25zYwk.gif
Click to expand...
Thanks, Webb!
A dose for snoozing ...
Best!
Phil
 
Tarheel1 said:
I thought you said at one point , we were going to roast in February and were on borrowed time in January!?
Click to expand...

I think he was one of the posters that was posting stuff from the Twitters about how "don't expect a permanent change to a La Nina pattern" any time soon.

Edit: The folks that predict long range here, I think they've decided they're likely going to be wrong this time.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I think he was one of the posters that was posting stuff from the Twitters about how "don't expect a permanent change to a La Nina pattern" any time soon.

Edit: The folks that predict long range here, I think they've decided they're likely going to be wrong this time.
Click to expand...

There's not a whole lot you can go off of several months in advance other than seasonal forecasting signals which argued for a warm winter overall although a small subset of years supported a cold December and possibly a near-below normal January w/ some North Atlantic blocking early on (verified) and suppression of the Alaskan ridge later in winter thanks to the EQBO (likely won't verify). The inter annual persistence of the ridge over the Northeastern Pacific & Alaska, and anchoring of this feature by the anomalous NE Eurasia/Siberian vortex and alterations in background tropical forcing due to Hadley Cell expansion isn't captured by most canonical NINA or cold neutral ENSO analogs and is a dynamical adjustment most forecasters should make in seasonal outlooks. However this feature has been far more intense than even I would have suspected. As a result, instead of being blowtorch warm in February, we may see a return back to what was observed in February 2014 & 2015, wherein much of the SE US was bitterly cold for appreciable periods of time in those months, w/ plenty of snow & ice to go around. Obviously we don't know when, where, or how many more winter storms we'll see next month (if any) but the large-scale pattern is about as favorable as you could possibly get it for February during a La Nina.
 
Tarheel1 said:
I thought you said at one point , we were going to roast in February and were on borrowed time in January!?
Click to expand...
Trying figure out your point . You say you " thought " when in reality you already know the answer to your question . Many people thought we would be warm the second half of winter and that it would be front loaded . Just trying to figure out if you're being an ass and calling him out or if you're actually trying to learn why we might end up colder vs what we previously thought and the reasons behind it

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
Trying figure out your point . You say you " thought " when in reality you already know the answer to your question . Many people thought we would be warm the second half of winter and that it would be front loaded . Just trying to figure out if you're being an ass and calling him out or if you're actually trying to learn why we might end up colder vs what we previously thought and the reasons behind it

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
honestly, he's half-trolling,half trying to be cute.. I'm guilty of the same thing sometimes, so I recognize it when others do it..
 
whamby said:
honestly, he's half-trolling,half trying to be cute.. I'm guilty of the same thing sometimes, so I recognize it when others do it..
Click to expand...
I've done it before as well. I was just trying to understand what the end game was for the question. Maybe it's just late and I didn't read it correctly

Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
 
One thing is for sure, if you don't put your thoughts out there for everyone to see, you can never be wrong (or right for that matter). That is the real reason I still pay some attention to JB, he doesn't hesitate to take a stand and is pretty good at pattern recognition. Local or area forecasting, meh not so much
 
Just saw this on facebook from RAH.

1200 pm... We're getting several reports of trees falling in the Triad and Person County with wind gusts of 35 to 45 MPH. Those strong winds will spread east this afternoon. We will be issuing a Wind Advisory for much of central NC through 600 pm. #ncwx
 
GaWx said:
Fwiw since so far out: the 12Z EPS says don't sleep on the period around 1/3-4 for a possible THIRD SE wintry threat, including near the coast due to still another surface low that is modeled to track well offshore the SE coast along with a possible wedge preceding that and continued ample supply of cold.
Click to expand...

I'm bumping this 12/25 post to show that the EPS had a run 9 days in advance of the 1/3/18 historic coastal winter storm showing that threat. Actually, it had hints of snow just offshore going back several days even before that! Those even older runs, which went back some 12-13 days prior to the 1/3 storm, kept showing snow offshore far NE FL/GA/SC about 50 miles out into the Atlantic.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top