Pattern Jarring January

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Webberweather53 said:
Lol idk why you're getting angry about this it's actually warmer in earlier frames at the surface. We need enough time to push the isothermal melting layer to the ground with surface temps in the mid 30s and light QPF won't cut it. Taking the surface output from the models verbatim this far out isn't a good idea even if it's warmer by a degree or two than advertised that will lead to more mixing
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Let's not argue guys. But @1300 does have a point. There seems to be inaccuracies with the cold air aloft supportive if snow all through the column on the Euro, but yet it shows rain and mixing well inland. Seems wrong and suspicious.
 
Well here's part 1 of the equation on the NAM, our clipper

namconus_ref_frzn_us_41.png
 
Clayton Reid said:
Let's not argue guys. But @1300 does have a point. There seems to be inaccuracies with the cold air aloft supportive if snow all through the column on the Euro, but yet it shows rain and mixing well inland. Seems wrong and suspicious.
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It's showing rain because the temps are above freezing at the surface and the QPF is too light... I'd like to see a storm where RDU doesn't get shafted and observes all snow because historically that almost never happens. Even the infamous Jan 88 event where snow fell with temps in the 10s at RDU we changed over to ZR near the end
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's showing rain because the temps are above freezing at the surface and the QPF is too light... I'd like to see a storm where RDU doesn't get shafted and observes all snow because historically that almost never happens. Even the infamous Jan 88 event where snow fell with temps in the 10s at RDU we changed over to ZR near the end
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Well dang! I imagine the rain must have froze on the surface instantly! Okay I see your point. Understood. It needs to fall heavier to support snow to fall all the way down from the column in this situation otherwise it's just sleet and freezing rain. Gotcha. It's like what happened in Atlanta back in early December. We started as rain but the heavier precip changed it over to snow while you got shafted with just rain.
 
Clayton Reid said:
I mean it's a big deal I guess especially for Macon. I might be spoiled because I live in the ATL and I haven't seen a 4+ snow in a while since 2011. Really wanna see that again. And I hope for the day when I have 6+ possibly in my backyard. I've researched a couple of storms that were 5-8 inches officially in the ATL. Would love for that to happen again soon in my lifetime and backyard haha.
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I live near Northside Hospital ITP. It happened five weeks ago.
 
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Clayton Reid said:
Well dang! I imagine the rain most have froze on the surface instantly! Okay I see your point. Understood. It needs to fall heavier to support snow to fall all the way down from the column in this situation otherwise it's just sleet and freezing rain. Gotcha. It's like what happened in Atlanta back in early December. We started as rain but the heavier precip changed it over to snow while you got shafted with just rain.
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It's a risky proposition to claim we're gonna be all snow here even with a fantastic large scale setup, it rarely if ever happens for a reason. Sure it could be a majority snow but if surface temps are warmer than forecast by the Euro that will delay the changeover to all snow.
1300m said:
It's just an error in the ptype-algorithm (probably just a WxBell thing), that precip would be snow in real life. With temps from 925 to 850mb well below freezing, the 1000-850mb thickness is most assuredly below 1300m (hey, that looks familiar!), and even colder from 850 to 700mb, so the ptype would be snow.
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Again have to be careful here, even if the temps are below 32F to the ground light-very light QPF depicted at the onset on this Euro run is often just freezing drizzle until legitimate precipitation moves in.
 
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Clayton Reid said:
Well dang! I imagine the rain must have froze on the surface instantly! Okay I see your point. Understood. It needs to fall heavier to support snow to fall all the way down from the column in this situation otherwise it's just sleet and freezing rain. Gotcha. It's like what happened in Atlanta back in early December. We started as rain but the heavier precip changed it over to snow while you got shafted with just rain.
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I'll try not to take this too off topic, but I remember when I experienced the Christmas snow of 2010, in the evening there was very light drizzle (and no it wasn't even freezing drizzle as it was 34-35).
It didn't hurt it but then again there was another half inch to an inch of snow that fell overnight on top of the about 4" that we saw during that day.
 
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