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Pattern Jarring January

I don't see Larry's stupid cold high coming down, but there is some significant cold on the 18z GFS. Looks to be above average for hours 192-222. Not much of a warm up. I'll be interested to see how it verifies and the final tally for the winter.
 
Here's hour 312. Looks like lots of "potential."
prateptype_cat.us_ma.png
 
I wouldn't call this a true clipper but that's just me. We saw a similar situation in Jan 2000 and December of 2000 where an upper trough dropped in and strong energy drove down the backside of the trough while the northern part of the trough exited stage right. This allowed the southern part to slow, close off and spawn a sfc low. Perhaps I'm wrong but that's how I see it. It's a real butt clinching scenario since we are waiting on a negative tilt and precip to essentially blossom over the area. Not my favorite but the net result can be awesome if all goes well

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NW trend may be unlikely here with the depth of the cold push. The low that spawns off the coast of North Carolina needs to be figured out, though. A further South and Western development (faster amplification) will lead to massive forecast challenges for the Carolinas.
 
In fact if you take a look at some members of the ensemble runs, they show a much different scenario with the formation of the low and how much moisture really gets involved. See "E11" from the 12z GEFS.
 
Shawn said:
NW trend may be unlikely here with the depth of the cold push. The low that spawns off the coast of North Carolina needs to be figured out, though. A further South and Western development (faster amplification) will lead to massive forecast challenges for the Carolinas.
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I'm much more concerned about a later negative tilt and an eastward end result. Hard to get excited about this outside of 72 hours until there is some model agreement on how the energy is dispersed and handled in the trough construct

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This gives you a good picture of what I'm talking about with how the trough starts leaving elongates the strong energy at the base of the trough gets left behind and goes nuts instead if just rushing through if the trough was more full latitude and really carved out

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Looks like a good run for the 18z GEFS. Looks better on the initial wave in AL, N GA, and NW SC. Also looks like there were not as many that bombed the coastal up the east coast. I'm sure someone will post the better maps in a bit, but here's one of the snow depth maps:
snod.conus.png
 
Storm5 said:
Not gonna get a NW trend with this . If anything squash city is a higher risk

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If we don't get a NW trend, I don't see this as being a meaningful event. I was at least shooting for a 2-3+ event for most possibly with temps in the 20s but looks like we.cant get any bigger than that this season it seems. Okay then
 
packfan98 said:
Looks like a good run for the 18z GEFS. Looks better on the initial wave in AL, N GA, and NW SC. Also looks like there were not as many that bombed the coastal up the east coast. I'm sure someone will post the better maps in a bit, but here's one of the snow depth maps:
snod.conus.png
Click to expand...

That looks better then the 12z GEFS overall. Wxbell maps are slow coming out...


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