Tarheelwx
Member
This isn’t the North Pole Jimmy. Maybe a few inches though.
TW
TW
I checked the UGA site for soil temps and basicly everything roughly north of the " Fall Line" was near or below freezing at the 2" and 4" depths. So with limited solar heating anything that falls will glaze/stick until WAA takes over. . Personally glad that moisture is limited with this.This isn’t the North Pole Jimmy. Maybe a few inches though.
TW
Interesting how HRRR says pretty much meh
How was HRRR with that early December snow?
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To your point, NAM through hour 10 much juicer and low NE of 18Z position.Radar returns look awfully impressive to our west... I’m not sure what to think about that. I would guess it could increase WAA. If it doesn’t there could be more widespread freezing rain problems.
As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.
Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.
Yes, if anything makes it there, would be late afternoon, and too warmI take it this storm system is a non issue in the triad and triangle areas of nc?
Yeah, looking at the soundings, current temps, dew points, dryness in the mid levels and surface, I honestly wouldn't be surprised if some of us in the ATL start of as snow briefly actually. Not to mention evaporative cooling in the mid levels and surface that would drop temps even more aloft and at the surface. So snow at onset is not out of the realm of possibility.As it stands at the moment, the current soundings, if fully saturated, would support snow barely in BMX and ATL, however, we know the dew point in the mid level is going to rise and the temp will not as much, so it should be an onset of sleet as the 925 MB level is deep into GA, but not for long. The surface is what I am worried about. We could see another bust, but I'm not wagering HRRR over the NAM and others at the moment. I think that each have a valid case, the NAM side being we see another ice storm here, and I would think that a constant rain = constant ZR all day until the end, while the HRRR has a gap to nothing here and across the area.
Looks like a lot of returns on the radar back into AL to evaporatively cool the air for now, so the temp may drop some or stay the same. Once we get more and heavier and constant returns, if that happens, we will see from there. Until then, we are riding the chance of a good icing or another flop of the NAM.