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Wintry January 8-9, 2018 Ice threat
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
Uncle Nasty
Member
MRX put a winter weather advisory up in our area for freezing drizzle overnight Sunday, changing to freezing rain before switching over to rain early afternoon. If that's the case they are seeing it colder for a much longer time than before. Earlier forecasts from MRX had us at slight chance for a few hours of mixture before changing to rain. We'll see how it plays out but the Monday morning commute could be interesting in some areas.
What again is keeping this from effecting East GA and SC?
gawxnative
Member
Mostly the dry air at mid levels, so any precip will mostly evaporate as it passes through that layer.. And the total amount of moisture to too little to saturate that layer
Thanks for replying. Crazy it looks like that wont be a problem the day after. Smh lol
drfranklin
Member
- Joined
- Dec 1, 2016
- Messages
- 472
- Reaction score
- 679
the dry air at GL is insane - I've lived in the Upstate for 10 years and don't ever recall such dry air - my DP last night was -10!
At this point, I welcome the moister air and rain - we need it!
At this point, I welcome the moister air and rain - we need it!
Xtreme Weather
Member
From BMX
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...
.Rain will overspread central Alabama tonight as an upper level
system approaches the area from the west. Light rain will move
into areas east of I-65 after midnight. Surface temperatures
across the northeast counties will be near freezing. A light glace
of freezing rain is possible for areas along and north of a line
from Gadsden, to Jacksonville, to Fruithurst, mainly on elevated
surfaces like bridges, trees and power lines.
ALZ018>021-072100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.180108T0600Z-180108T1500Z/
Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-
Including the cities of Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, and Heflin
351 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Light freezing rain expected. The ice will result in a
light glaze on bridges, trees and power lines.
* WHERE...Etowah, Calhoun, Cherokee and Cleburne Counties.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight until 9 AM CST Monday.
From HUN
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
252 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...Light ice accumulations are possible late tonight and Monday
morning...
.An approaching weather system will spread light rain across the
Tennessee Valley tonight into Monday. Temperatures will be cold
enough in eastern portions of southern middle Tennessee and
northeast Alabama for freezing rain to occur late tonight into
Monday morning.
ALZ009-010-TNZ097-072200-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.180108T0600Z-180108T1800Z/
Jackson-De Kalb-Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Rainsville,
Winchester, Sewanee, Decherd, Estill Springs, and Cowan
252 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in difficult
travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of one tenth of an
inch or less are expected.
* WHERE...In Alabama, Jackson and De Kalb Counties. In Tennessee,
Franklin County.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing rain will change to rain
sometime late Monday morning as temperatures warm above
freezing.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
...A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA...
.Rain will overspread central Alabama tonight as an upper level
system approaches the area from the west. Light rain will move
into areas east of I-65 after midnight. Surface temperatures
across the northeast counties will be near freezing. A light glace
of freezing rain is possible for areas along and north of a line
from Gadsden, to Jacksonville, to Fruithurst, mainly on elevated
surfaces like bridges, trees and power lines.
ALZ018>021-072100-
/O.NEW.KBMX.WW.Y.0001.180108T0600Z-180108T1500Z/
Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-Cleburne-
Including the cities of Gadsden, Anniston, Centre, and Heflin
351 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
9 AM CST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Light freezing rain expected. The ice will result in a
light glaze on bridges, trees and power lines.
* WHERE...Etowah, Calhoun, Cherokee and Cleburne Counties.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight until 9 AM CST Monday.
From HUN
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
252 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...Light ice accumulations are possible late tonight and Monday
morning...
.An approaching weather system will spread light rain across the
Tennessee Valley tonight into Monday. Temperatures will be cold
enough in eastern portions of southern middle Tennessee and
northeast Alabama for freezing rain to occur late tonight into
Monday morning.
ALZ009-010-TNZ097-072200-
/O.NEW.KHUN.WW.Y.0001.180108T0600Z-180108T1800Z/
Jackson-De Kalb-Franklin TN-
Including the cities of Scottsboro, Fort Payne, Rainsville,
Winchester, Sewanee, Decherd, Estill Springs, and Cowan
252 AM CST Sun Jan 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO
NOON CST MONDAY...
* WHAT...Freezing rain expected. The ice will result in difficult
travel conditions. Total ice accumulations of one tenth of an
inch or less are expected.
* WHERE...In Alabama, Jackson and De Kalb Counties. In Tennessee,
Franklin County.
* WHEN...From midnight tonight to noon CST Monday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The freezing rain will change to rain
sometime late Monday morning as temperatures warm above
freezing.
MRX issues Winter Advisory. RGEM continues indicating heavy icing late tonight first alert weather monday
Xtreme Weather
Member
From FFC
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018
GAZ001>003-011-019-030-041-071645-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.180108T0600Z-180108T1500Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Chattooga-Floyd-Polk-Haralson-
Including the city of Rome
334 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
334 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018
GAZ001>003-011-019-030-041-071645-
/O.NEW.KFFC.WW.Y.0002.180108T0600Z-180108T1500Z/
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Chattooga-Floyd-Polk-Haralson-
Including the city of Rome
334 AM EST Sun Jan 7 2018
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
MONDAY...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Seems like a lot of models are increasing the amount of moisture again, including the NAM. Seems to fire up a few ZR showers up throughout the day.
RGEM / NAM increased moisture
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Last 3 NAM runs have significantly shifted the low NE, and one more run doing this and we won't see a cutoff low near GA. If that happens, there will be more ZR than expected, and we will be where we were a few days ago.
Showmeyourtds
Member
3K Name does show the wedge hanging around & more moisture further east...worth watching for sure
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The mean has practically doubled here from .13 to .21 QPF FWIW. Seems to reflect what the other SR models are showing.
Remember, the last event did the same thing, kinda. NAM/SREF/RGEM was a bigger deal around here and we ended up with zilch. ZR isn't something to play with though.
we will be fine in CAE I'm not worried.
Xtreme Weather
Member
Also 3k NAM 2m temps remain around 32 degrees most of the day now in the affected areas including Atlanta areas
Yep. They even note moisture is too shallow; might not even see rain! Thunderstorms possible next week, though.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Y
Yep. But as you said, ZR cannot be messed with. In addition, we were looking at snow, which has longer to fall than rain. Rain can form at lower levels, so there is less distance and less dry air the moisture needs to go through. Just have to monitor the 500MB level over the next 12 hours as well as moisture flow and the radar plus dewpoints.