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Tropical Hurricane Gert

Poor Larry :(. 2 runs straight at him.
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Yikes, if that were to happen the coast of GA/SC would be getting a beating from surge.

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Personally think the 12z GFS is a bit more realistic w/ the overall structure of 99L in the short range... There's less random/spurious PV lobes rotating around the broader circulation at least up until 72 HR
 
99L moves northwest initially in the short term due to Beta Advection out of the monsoon trough (as is often the case w/many TCs in this part of the Atlantic) and there's a tiny weakness north of the Cape Verde Islands, but a more general W-WNW course will probably resume in this GFS run
 
Massive western Atlantic ridge building overhead as a retrograding anticyclone just south of Iceland is coming into view... This retrograding anticyclone is what ultimately does the US in on the GFS in the longer term... This individual rossby wave doesnt retrograde towards North America but the packet of Rossby waves associated with this ridge does as each anticyclone "breaks" further west of its predecessor... This retrogressive behavior is pretty common around ~45-50N and is also commonly observed in the North Pacific during the heart of winter...
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That ridge out in the Atlantic would cause wind shear to the topical wave wouldn't it? And also there is a trough to it's northwest which would help steer the wave to the NE then to a ENE track.

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WeatherWatch said:
That ridge out in the Atlantic would cause wind shear to the topical wave wouldn't it? And also there is a trough to it's northwest which would help steer the wave to the NE then to a ENE track.

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Not necessarily, while accelerating trade wind flow underneath burgeoning upper level ridges can shear TCs that's not liable to the case here. The trough to the northwest over the central plains will direct it northwestward into the US coast (not northeast/ENE) verbatim on this GFS, plus that kind of track isn't climatologically favored until at least the 2nd half of September or October and/or in big El Nino seasons when the westerlies are stronger and more extensive over the western hemisphere >>> more troughs >>> more recurvatures...
 
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