Tropical Hurricane Dorian

[Henry2326]

Chris ... I haven't written off the Space Coast just yet ...

I haven't written off any option that has been presented...

 

[pcbjr]

This?

Yup and I'm confused

 

[gawxnative]

I keep getting this "nagging/gut feeling" that Dorian may be what Floyd was feared to be ..No offense to what NC when through with him.

 

[pcbjr]

Phil,
Thanks for posting this updated. Like the map you posted earlier, it would be better to post the steering for under 940 mb. This one is for 1000-1010 mb.

Larry - Says 200 - 700 <940 ... what am I missing?

 

[deltadog03]

Yup and I'm confused

That is the correct one since our hurricane is so strong. Different steering level vs the one you had posted before.

 

[pcbjr]

That is the correct one since our hurricane is so strong. Different steering level vs the one you had posted before.

Thanks!

 

[KyloG]

18z ICON would be a fairly rough option.

 

[GaWx]

This?

One can see here that the westerly steering is starting to weaken/collapse as the high weakens and the trough to the north passes by. So, we have to make sure that the semi-stall happens by about the western edge of Grand Bahama island by tomorrow evening. If so, FL should avoid a landfall.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

I think right now I would blend the 12z Euro with Hurricane Mathew and Hurricane Floyd and that’s your track

 

[ForsythSnow]

One can see here that the westerly steering is starting to weaken/collapse as the high weakens and the trough to the north passes by. So, we have to make sure that the semi-stall happens by about the western edge of Grand Bahama island by tomorrow evening. If so, FL should avoid a landfall.

Southern Florida should. The Northern part can still be impacted as demonstrated by the HWRF. Of course it never fully stops, but it slows considerably enough to turn.

 

[packfan98]

18z GFS looks to be a slight tick further west compared to 12z out to hour 33. Maybe 10 miles? Every mile counts on this one when it comes to sensible weather over land.

 

[pcbjr]

We're all giving it our best shot ... somewhere in here is the "answer" ... likely not mine but as we all are ... tryin' ...

Edit: and we all bring a bunch of knowledge, experience, differing perspectives, and a good bit of gut to the table ... carry on ...

 

[packfan98]

18z looks very similar to the ICON through hour 60. It's definitely closer to the coastline than 12z.

 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS center

18z looks very similar to the ICON through hour 60. It's definitely closer to the coastline than 12z.

Only 50 miles offshore Daytona paralleling the coast.

 

[packfan98]

18Z GFS center


Only 50 miles offshore Daytona paralleling the coast.

Yes. I would think that hurricane conditions would be met on the immediate coastline of N FL and GA at hr 69.

 

[jackendrickwx]

Definitely west on the 18z GFS

 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS: I think it will hit Mrytle into NC.

 

[Ethan80963]

GFS-Legacy also a bit southwest

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Seems like a Wilmington landfall here on the GFS.

Still fairly strong as well although not as strong as it is today (obvious).

 

[dsaur]

No it would just become burning Godzilla

If one got big enough in conjuntion with an earth quake to break up the methane hydrates, with all that lightening, ........oh, the humanity for sure. Burning hurricane sharknado. I'm going to write the script right now...as soon as I don't wash the car again