Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

[Metwannabe]

The Euro develops this right around where that deep convection currently resides....

 

[Henry2326]

Personally, I would go with a more western track. Until the thing dies, you have to go with the ridge staying strong in the long range which would mean a WNW to NW track across the Central/eastern GOM.

FV3 agrees with you....hangs it up for several days under the ridge as far west as it can go....

 

[Metwannabe]

Euro directing a H at Fl... but it's just one run 10 days out
edit: actually a strong tropical storm

 

[pcbjr]

He did well with the Florence track

That wasn't the point, but yours is well taken ...
At least we have some good conversation going about something that is a mere image at present ...

 

[pcbjr]

Not, not, not, repeat, not, buying it for one minute ...

 

[Henry2326]

Not, not, not, repeat, not, buying it for one minute ...

View attachment 6637

View attachment 6638

If you think that one's hinky, just skip the 18z FV3. lol

 

[Brent]

0z Euro pretty much is storm cancel, barely pops a very weak low near Eastern FL at 240

0z GFS was very weak into the Central Gulf then it dies

 

[ForsythSnow]

0z Euro pretty much is storm cancel, barely pops a very weak low near Eastern FL at 240

0z GFS was very weak into the Central Gulf then it dies

On the other hand, the NAVGEM and CMC have been very consistent on the same path into the gulf and a low forming soon.

 

[Tarheel1]

On the other hand, the NAVGEM and CMC have been very consistent on the same path into the gulf and a low forming soon.

Yeah, our local Mets are on it!! They said none of the models are showing this disturbance affecting any U.S land masses!

 

[ForsythSnow]

Yeah, our local Mets are on it!! They said none of the models are showing this disturbance affecting any U.S land masses!

The EPS suggests at least some kind of activity. No way that this should be shot down at all.

 

[Henry2326]

The EPS suggests at least some kind of activity. No way that this should be shot down at all.

They heard you... 06z .FV3

 

[pcbjr]

They heard you... 06z .FV3

View attachment 6639

Yup and nope ... or rather, no thank you ...

 

[Metwannabe]

12z ICON - nothing
12z GFS - nothing
12z CMC - Tom Petty

 

[pcbjr]

12z ICON - nothing
12z GFS - nothing
12z CMC - Tom Petty

Not the new one from the box set release, "Gainesville," I trust ...

 

[Metwannabe]

Not the new one from the box set release, "Gainesville," I trust ...

Oh no, it's either the classic "I Won't Back Down" or his last release before his untimely departure from this world "Hit Louisiana and Leave Mack High N Dry Again"

 

[GaWx]

12z ICON - nothing
12z GFS - nothing
12z CMC - Tom Petty

ICON: questionable credibility
GFS: some credibility
CMC: very little credibility, especially when Euro has nothing even close to it; has a very strong tendency to overstrengthen

 

[Metwannabe]

ICON: questionable credibility
GFS: some credibility
CMC: very little credibility, especially when Euro has nothing even close to it; has a very strong tendency to overstrengthen

Speaking of credibility.....nah wrong thread

 

[pcbjr]

Oh no, it's either the classic "I Won't Back Down" or his last release before his untimely departure from this world "Hit Louisiana and Leave Mack High N Dry Again"

Actually I figured you were humming "don't come around here no more ..."

 

[Henry2326]

ICON: questionable credibility
GFS: some credibility
CMC: very little credibility, especially when Euro has nothing even close to it; has a very strong tendency to overstrengthen

What do you think of navgem?

 

[Metwannabe]

I'm not Larry but my experience tells me it tends to be TC happy, in other words very often over develops and intensifies tropical systems. I'd put it in the CMC category

What do you think of navgem?

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