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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

Wow! FV3! I will do a couple of posts as it runs through the Florida and up the east coast!Screenshot_20181001-145539.jpg
 
Yeah, given how far out it is, is there even something specific to be looking for that's out there now that could spin up?

Hmm, I suppose I'll look and see what's up.

Edit: looks like it'd spin up out of the gulf if it were anything.
 
Yep and obviously I don't have to tell you Phil I'm sure this is why you posted that image, but persistent thunderstorms in that region has been the breeding ground for many of tropical Cyclones over the years.
Henry2326 said:
Yup....origin for all models....they agree on something. :) lol
Click to expand...

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This may end up being fairly messy with the upper low from near leslie moving west southwest and possibly numerous vorticity centers in the Caribbean competing for dominance. The overall better environment for development might be as any system moves into the Bahamas

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SD said:
This may end up being fairly messy with the upper low from near leslie moving west southwest and possibly numerous vorticity centers in the Caribbean competing for dominance. The overall better environment for development might be as any system moves into the Bahamas

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Click to expand...

This article is dated Oct 24, 2017. Its about a possible storm in the western Caribbean. Quote "the track forecast is a mess". :)
Cool map...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...d-one-soon-could-form/?utm_term=.daeb2a61de1f

Developed into tropical storm Phillippe.....topped out at 60 mph, 991 pressure.
From our origination zone....
Screenshot_20181001-194316.jpg
 
We have to be prepared for extreme weather even in it's long duration winterstorms/hurricanes.
 
guess its time to start watching the tropics again, I really zoned out after Florence

1. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next
couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late
week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development when the system
will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
Crazy to think about, but we have 2 category 5s in the pacific right now, and one is headed due north.
Brent said:
guess its time to start watching the tropics again, I really zoned out after Florence

1. Surface observations and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
a broad area of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea a couple hundred miles north of Panama. Shower and
thunderstorm activity is currently limited, and unfavorable
upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development over the next
couple of days while the low drifts generally northward. By late
week and over the weekend, however, upper-level winds are forecast
to become a little more conducive for development when the system
will be moving northwestward into the northwestern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
Yeah with this system, the models seem split on how they want to take the low. The NAVGEM and CMC go for the gulf and the NAVGEM is quite scary for what it shows. The others develop a system and hook it into the coast of FL or GA, except for the FV3 which seems to like the idea of beating up Florida and S GA by crossing over into the Gulf, then back inland.
 
get
 
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