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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

Dumbass alert
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Another grand slam
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Storm5 said:
Dumbass alert
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Another grand slam
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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LOL now I hope Invest 92L doesn't do anything on any model anymore. I hope the next storm is that thing the Euro keeps advertising way out in the middle of nowhere.. I want to see his reaction when the entire thing goes POOF! :D
 
25 years ago tonight

HURRICANE ANDREW ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 1992

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ANDREW BEARING DOWN ON SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

HURRICANE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE DRY TORTUGAS INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...THE FLORIDA WEST COAST SOUTH OF VENICE...AND FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD TO TITUSVILLE...AND ON THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF VENICE TO BAYPORT.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF ANDREW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES ...220 KM...EAST OF MIAMI.

ANDREW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. ON THIS PATH THE CENTER OF ANDREW WILL CROSS THE COAST NEAR MIAMI FLORIDA AROUND DAYBREAK MONDAY MORNING.

ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD NOW BE COMPLETED. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...225 KM/HR...AND SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

NASSAU...BAHAMAS...REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85 MPH...WITH GUSTS TO 105 MPH NEAR 830 PM EDT...0030Z. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES... 45 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.
 
Webberweather53 said:
While we're currently preoccupied with Harvey, can't take our eye off the next wave fixing to emerge off the African coast, the ECMWF and GFS are pretty enthused about its development down the road.
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The Euro has had this wave for days, just sent off to the north as a strong hurricane as soon as it came off of Central Northern Africa. Here's to another storm in the shredder.... unless it does what Harvey did, survive and blow up in hotbeds of potential.
 
ForsythSnow said:
The Euro has had this wave for days, just sent off to the north as a strong hurricane as soon as it came off of Central Northern Africa. Here's to another storm in the shredder.... unless it does what Harvey did, survive and blow up in hotbeds of potential.
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We'll see if it heads towards the graveyard, most guidance actually indicates that this system may pass north of the Greater Antilles, obviously this isn't set in stone yet, but if it does, it may have a chance to develop over the southwestern and/or subtropical Atlantic. Fortunately, the planetary wave configuration is pretty favorable to recurvature of this TC over the western Atlantic if it passes north of PR/Hispaniola, with a deep-very deep trough forecast to remain in place over the Great Lakes and southeastern Canada into mid September.
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Aside from Harvey moisture infiltrating most of the SE US, this is just a reminder that we're about at that time of the year where we have keep closer tabs on the eastern Pacific as tropical cyclones here have a greater tendency to recurve into Mexico and bring remnant moisture from these decaying TCs into the southern and/or southwestern US later in the season in September and esp October once the Rockies thermal high begins to weaken/retreat into the Sonoran desert.
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metwannabe said:
Normally I'd Lol too but I swear the way this year is going I'm not laughing at anything anymore..... although it is the crazy uncle
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Yeah it's also within a week of the peak of the season and we have quasi-stationary Indian Ocean forcing, 93L probably won't be by itself for long in spite of what Dr. Ventrice believes...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah it's also within a week of the peak of the season and we have quasi-stationary Indian Ocean forcing, 93L probably won't be by itself for long in spite of what Dr. Ventrice believes...
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I agree. I have a hard time believing it will quiet near peak, and it seems about time we get another round of waves. A few GEFS members also pare picking up a very weak low in that area.
 
Some models hinting at something else in the NW Gulf after Harvey too :confused:

Dallas NWS mentioned it and the Euro does have a weak low around day 8-9 while the GFS has a lot of rain just offshore(just what everyone needs!)
 
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