So I'm a little confused both the EPS and GEFS show the NAO trending toward negative in mid-Feb, but the Euro & GFS operationals show it going wildly positive.. I genuinely don't get it:
Pattern Freezing Ferocious February
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Euro looks mighty interesting here next weekend 
Not so interesting for most of yall to the east, congrats Chicago
Not so interesting for most of yall to the east, congrats Chicago
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For the majority of the southeast, a chance to come out of this winter with above normal snowfall, below normal temps and no drought. In a nina at that.
So I'm a little confused both the EPS and GEFS show the NAO trending toward negative in mid-Feb, but the Euro & GFS operationals show it going wildly positive.. I genuinely don't get it:
This is showing the same thing. Top imagine has a larger time frame on the X axis which makes it “taller”. Peak at 2/11 and trending downward on both the Op GFS and EPS here
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Euro looks mighty interesting here next weekend
Not so interesting for most of yall to the east, congrats Chicago
I honestly can’t believe this is the same model inside 10 days and a single run later.
Terrible.
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Goodbye strat pv.
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Question is what will the downstream impacts be. I've seen many " experts " this week suggest the impacts wont be near as great for our side of the worldGoodbye strat pv.
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Would be a close call to your area verbatim. But the gefs has been showing day 8 plus systems all year only to back off so i wouldn't get excited
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Most MJO forecasts now seeing Phase 8. It’s time to start the upward climb on the winter roller coaster. It’s not over yet.
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Nope, my toddler decided today would be the first day he slept in past 6 on a Saturday so i I had two hours to kill. Looked at every single gefs member which btw they all seem to handle the trough differently . Either way it will be gone by 12zReally? Are you snow map loving again Charlie?
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Nice SE ridge! That's purdy!Really? Are you snow map loving again Charlie?
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Actually the GEFS has shown something small over the past few runs around 2/11. It's not much because it's ensembles are torn about which way to go. 0z was meager but looking at pivotal, it's back on the 6z.
Edit: That's how we got started I believe with the NC special but I've just been burned so much by the GEFS over this winter and last winter.
Edit: That's how we got started I believe with the NC special but I've just been burned so much by the GEFS over this winter and last winter.
Well no cutoff low for the energy around day 8, so we're trending better (hasn't been one on the 6z or 12z).
Robert @ WxSouth has abandoned his prior optimism on the mid term, still holding out hope for the long term.
“As for any snow and ice, right now the trough shape is not quite right most of the Southeast for a while. This is a pattern where there isn't quite enough cold air far to the South, but Kentucky, northern Arkansas and West Virginia will always be close , since they are north of the main storm tracks.The storm track cuts too far inland for the next couple of weeks it appears.Then followed by quick cooldowns, then warm up and rain. Wash , rinse, repeat. Perhaps later on this month we get the perfect balance of good storm track and cold enough air in place for more regions of the Southeast.”
“As for any snow and ice, right now the trough shape is not quite right most of the Southeast for a while. This is a pattern where there isn't quite enough cold air far to the South, but Kentucky, northern Arkansas and West Virginia will always be close , since they are north of the main storm tracks.The storm track cuts too far inland for the next couple of weeks it appears.Then followed by quick cooldowns, then warm up and rain. Wash , rinse, repeat. Perhaps later on this month we get the perfect balance of good storm track and cold enough air in place for more regions of the Southeast.”
A CAD event around 2/11-2/13 might have some legs...North NC had some wintry from it and the GEFS had been showing something small around there.
edit: looool a cutoff does show up but it's in lala land.
edit: looool a cutoff does show up but it's in lala land.