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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Stout -PNA no match for a -NAO. East based -NAO at that in March of 83.
1983_03_24.gif
 
SD said:
First week of mega March looking good

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Yup thinking first 2-3 weeks of March is going to be the time frame of any wintry precip it occurs then... After that warmer temps should begin to prevail again. That said been dupped on long range before

... Carry on


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That vortex over Hudson Bay has been just rotting there but GEFS showing quite the flip with HP extending from the conus all the way to EurAsia.

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Should a "Magnificent March" thread already be created? There have been more posts in here about March than Feb recently since Feb. is already getting pretty close to toast for most of the SE.
 
Kylo said:
Stout -PNA no match for a -NAO. East based -NAO at that in March of 83.
1983_03_24.gif
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That's because we were in the midst of one of the strongest El Niños of the last few centuries, it should be no surprise that the SER and -PNA was non-existent in March 1983. This year is much different
 
Kylo said:
83 big southeast snow above I posted had -PNA. Trough out west is fine, lot of our great -NAO winters, mainly back in the 60's, had -PNA. We won't be fighting NW flow but rather would need the NAO to compress heights enough in the east.
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I don't know where you're getting your March of 1983 PNA info from. Actually, there was a strong +PNA in March of 1983 as a whole and there was at least a solid +PNA every day of the month including on and around the 3/24/1983 snowstorm:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
 
The only real severe threat won’t be until pop up summertime storms start in May-July. As per usual, the -NAO takes over in April, west ridge , east trough dominate the pattern, snooze fest on severe. And if Nino starts ramping up, Hurricane season will be a dud also.
 
Tarheel1 said:
The only real severe threat won’t be until pop up summertime storms start in May-July. As per usual, the -NAO takes over in April, west ridge , east trough dominate the pattern, snooze fest on severe. And if Nino starts ramping up, Hurricane season will be a dud also.
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NAO goes in the tank just in time to kill all of the azaleas before the Masters. Never fails
 
GaWx said:
I don't know where you're getting your March of 1983 PNA info from. Actually, there was a strong +PNA in March of 1983 as a whole and there was at least a solid +PNA every day of the month including on and around the 3/24/1983 snowstorm:

ftp://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.pna.index.b500101.current.ascii
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Thanks for the correction. Always had in my mind that 60/62 and 83 were -PNA/-NAO producing. Missed the ridging up in AK and just focused on trough in west for 83.
 
Lol at the difference between CMC and GFS at 108. Euro 00z looked more like the CMC but warmer. CAD areas may need to keep an eye on this one still.
 
-PNA/-NAO cold neutral-NINA Februarys (which is what we're soon to move towards) are favorable for a lot of open gulf setups and severe weather in the southeast especially over climatologically favored areas of Mississippi, Alabama, Louisiana, etc.
F75Qv4AUBh.png
gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_12.png
cd152.7.224.3.43.10.21.35.prcp.png
cd152.7.224.3.43.10.22.2.prcp.png
 
Nomanslandva said:
Lol at the difference between CMC and GFS at 108. Euro 00z looked more like the CMC but warmer. CAD areas may need to keep an eye on this one still.
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UK might be good for your area. Sliding 1030hp so maybe VA/NC border counties can get something frozen.

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