• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

Jon said:
The GEFS can’t even get the 10-day right, it’s not going to accurately predict the 11-16 mean heights for the NH.

And sure enough the model corrected the trough.

The positive thing I do see out of that 11-16 day mean in the quote is a stout -AO, which models have also caught onto the last 1-2 or so
Click to expand...

The SOI has really tanked as well. Many signs point to a window of opportunity. Nobody seems to have much hope because it's getting late into our winter season and the models just don't seem show anything compared to the decent look of the teleconnections. Hopefully, the operational models will catch up and start showing something better over the next week of runs.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
#WinningView attachment 3862
Click to expand...

RDU is 79 in the image you just posted...

That’s why mean temperatures are important here and why looking at operational temp maps that far out doesn’t verify well.

Op: 79F
GFS ensemble mean temp: 54
GEFS warmest member: 66
GEFS Inner Quartile Range (25-75%): 45-63F
5170c373138840c022d46962b2bbcc07.jpg


That kind of warmth is highly unlikely.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Kylo said:
GEFS has been, so far, incorrectly trying to take the AO negative and PNA positive. Yes, models could be wrong but doesn’t mean it will correct to cold in the southeast.
Click to expand...
Yeah I don’t think it means cold southeast (more like climo for now), and we’d have to see if models continue to hold trend, it’s just not a torch. I do think a +PNA will form but that’s just me.

Euro is the first operational to trend up in the PNA as of last night.
95478a39732fbbc41e549028ba08c0d4.jpg


I looked and it seems both the Euro and GFS have tried to dip the AO and were wrong. We’ll see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Jon said:
Yeah I don’t think it means cold southeast (more like climo for now), and we’d have to see if models continue to hold trend, it’s just not a torch. I do think a +PNA will form but that’s just me.

Euro is the first operational to trend up in the PNA as of last night.
95478a39732fbbc41e549028ba08c0d4.jpg


I looked and it seems both the Euro and GFS have tried to dip the AO and were wrong. We’ll see.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The bigger concern in the long range ensembles is that the trop PV tries to consolidate towards Alaska. Blocking does try and form from Scandinavia but the trop PV is messing up the pacific pattern. If, and that's a big IF, the EPS and GEFS are correct about this then that would be pretty much winter over for us in the south. The time it would take to get out of that pattern would take us into March.

Still have 3 weeks left in February and then maybe another 10 days into March where realistically Raleigh could see snow. Outside of another 83 or 93 type fluke big storm.

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height 336.png

GEFS Ensembles Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa Height 384.png
 
packfan98 said:
The SOI has really tanked as well. Many signs point to a window of opportunity. Nobody seems to have much hope because it's getting late into our winter season and the models just don't seem show anything compared to the decent look of the teleconnections. Hopefully, the operational models will catch up and start showing something better over the next week of runs.
Click to expand...

I don't get it either. I keep waking up and checking the ensembles and expecting positive changes and it's not happening. I am probably just being impatient I guess or naive.
 
Kylo said:
I don't get it either. I keep waking up and checking the ensembles and expecting positive changes and it's not happening. I am probably just being impatient I guess or naive.
Click to expand...
It's interesting for sure. Almost every variable has to be positive for us to get into a productive pattern. It only takes one fly in the ointment to screw everything up (ie. crappy pacific, no cold air on this side of the pole, etc...). I haven't really seen anyone talk about why the pattern is not producing a better setup with this look. I'm sure someone will figure it out. It's not sunspots this year.
 
GEFS must have heard my incessant whining. Just need the pac ridge to go up with a stout -EPO.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_fh312_trend.gif
 
The GEFS looks good for mid month on from what I just looked at on the temp anomaly. Ik along ways out but it looks to be good. EPS was totally opposite tho
 
Tarheel1 said:
Didn't somebody say a ridge all around through half the world couldn't happen? Looks like it in that model! Sad end to winter
Click to expand...

Yes I did and it's also a GEFS 11-16 day forecast, name one EPS/GEFS coast-to-coast torch that they've been advertising on end for the past few weeks beyond day 6-7 that's verified, I'll be waiting...
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top