Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Sep 9, 2018.
Post any you make or have ideas for here.
I'l have a map posted within the next half hour, I want to see the 11pm advisory first in case I need to make any slight adjustments to my map.
I'm pretty much in line with NHC on the intensity, but it's subject to change depending on whether or not Florence does go through RI soon.
I will give it a go. EURO still a bit on southern end....I think that looks pretty good for now, IMO
You think their will big shift south?
I wouldn't say a big shift south....but possible on the southern edge...will adjust if needed.
Here's my idea, which probably like I thought with Irma will not verify close. Main things I've noted :
1. The wind intensity is what I believe is the MAXIMUM potential sustained winds. I'm going on the assumption that ERCs will occur around 67 W 28 N and 74 W 32 N. The decrease nearing land happens with most TCs as land friction makes the storm lose strength.
2. I believe the storm will track close to the magenta line OR the blue line in the end. However, I tend to feel the blue line will be most correct unless the storm has issues gaining latitude tomorrow.
3. I believe the storm will stay within the pink cone except for the next 6 hours at the beginning. The blue part is the uncertainty area and many scenarios are in play, so the storm could go North and stall, or it could go west and dissipate versus stalling.
I'll probably update the map within 2 days to adjust what happened and the trends from there.
Well cannot do graphic right now, but my thought on NHC 5 am products.. I feel they will have to post Hurricane Watch from near Charleston noth to Norfolk, possibly across the Bay... with TS Watch down to GA/SC Line and all of the Bay into MD... Surge watch from Georgetown SC to Lower Bay.. .. I just think they wil have to go "wide" with products due to the Ridge strength factor at this time
disregard my second map. I had a long day yesterday and the American model was screwing with my head. As George W once said “There's an old saying in Tennessee I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee that says, fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again."
I stand by my first landfall map
So far, my map hasn't verified too well, and the path has been relatively north of my cone. I'll revise my map after the 12Z runs today to see if current trends hold or change.
Here's my last map.
1. Intensities are not ranges, they are 2 different scenarios. One is the storm keeps weakening, the other is the storm strengthens back to a cat 4.
2. The yellow line is where the models want to take it at the moment averaged to some degree and where the current trend may take it.
In case you can't read the numbers because the colors are hard to see :
125 mph (Now)
120 - 140 mph
115 - 145 mph
100 - 130 mph
90 - 115 mph
45 - 60 mph
25 - 35 mph
I actually didn't do too bad on the last part of the map. Florence followed almost in the dead center of the cone I made except for crawling down the coast a bit further. The intensity on the weakening scenario was pretty close too. I should keep in mind with what models predicted and how some were too far north and others too far south. Taking the middle road may be the way to go, but next year we won't have the GFS, as the FV3 replaces it.
Ya did real good, FS! Kudos ...