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Severe DEEP SOUTH Severe Weather threat 18-20th

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Webberweather53 said:
I'm starting to have thoughts that this should not have been upgraded to a MDT, the performance of these cells thus far is pretty lackluster to say the least in comparison to what could have happened and they've grown upscale into a linear mess in a hurry
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Yeah, SPC seems to have picked up the habit of being overboard in recent times, and I think this time we can owe it to the HRRR and other SR models not picking up on that development in Central AL earlier.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm starting to have thoughts that this should not have been upgraded to a MDT, the performance of these cells thus far is pretty lackluster to say the least in comparison to what could have happened and they've grown upscale into a linear mess in a hurry
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I'm agreeing with you. I don't want to keep harping on this but that dry slug at 850mb over central AL is impressive. Bust potential growing quickly for BHM and southward in a hurry.
 
Looks like the chance of this causing discrete supercells seems very low at this point. It all just formed and melted together. However, I think that may cause the system to turn into a damaging wind threat in the form of a line. It's either that or a line with several kinks and tornadoes embedded.
 
At 535 PM CDT, a potential large and extremely dangerous tornado was
located over Russellville, moving east at 30 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!
 
Glenn Burns is hyping this event. He just said this: The potential for devastating storms is so great tonight, even the Hurricane Hunters have been deployed!
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Glenn Burns is hyping this event. He just said this: The potential for devastating storms is so great tonight, even the Hurricane Hunters have been deployed!
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I think he's a severe lover at heart because he loves being paid overtime for extended coverage. He'll hype up a windstorm if it means some extra pocket money.
 
Phillip l said:
Glen burns now talking about long track tornados in the northern ga area.
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Someone needs to throw a hammer into the camera lens to shut him up so he can go look at what is really happening. On the other hand, the line is strong and has a tornado on the ground, so can't write this off. Also, I don't know if we can call this a bust yet since it's just entered the moderate risk area. Have to give it an hour I'd say. Looks like the supercell cluster is moving SE too.
 
Mesoscale Discussion 0147
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0506 PM CDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Areas affected...Northern AL

Concerning...Tornado Watch 13...

Valid 192206Z - 200000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 13 continues.

SUMMARY...Greatest tornado threat will be focused along warm front
in northern AL through about 00z. Significant tornadoes will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Supercells are intensifying along a surface trough
across northeast MS, and these storms will spread across northern AL
through the late afternoon/evening. The southwest-northeast
orientation of the initiating surface trough has supported some
storm interactions. However, even with a supercell cluster mode,
the ongoing storms will move into a more favorable environment for
tornadoes with time in AL. Low-level shear will be strongest near
and north of the warm front, which also denotes the northeast edge
of the most unstable portions of the warm sector (MLCAPE at or above
2000 J/kg). This corridor along the warm front will provide the
most favorable environment for significant tornadoes for the next
few hours as the supercells mature and begin to move
east-southeastward along the boundary.
 
Yeouch, the latest HRRR doesn't have anyone south of BHM even getting rain except for spotty showers in Far East AL. Pretty much the two main cells and maybe another is all that forms and the tracks into GA.
 
Xtreme Weather said:
For now going to respectively disagree even HRRR amps this up around I-65 the E. Small area but violent long track TOR's possible. Confined area yes but good grief
View attachment 4620 View attachment 4621 View attachment 4622 View attachment 4623
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HRRR also showed there being discrete cells already and that didn't happen (the resolution of the model is likely still too coarse to resolve storm mode). Good luck with that if your cells cold pools are constantly interfering with one another, it's going to be a tall order to get these cells to split into discrete sups during the late evening and early overnight unless some dramatic changes take hold in the next hour or so
 
Arcc said:
Yeouch, the latest HRRR doesn't have anyone south of BHM even getting rain except for spotty showers in Far East AL. Pretty much the two main cells and maybe another is all that forms and the tracks into GA.
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Guess is depends on how you feel and location, I-65 East and North of I-20 definitely got to be aware
 
Arcc said:
Yeouch, the latest HRRR doesn't have anyone south of BHM even getting rain except for spotty showers in Far East AL. Pretty much the two main cells and maybe another is all that forms and the tracks into GA.
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So far the HRRR is doing horrible. I'm still going to look at it, but it seems to be suggesting the main line will have no trouble developing and causing issues, while in reality, its a mess and it's not developing. I've already thrown the NAM in the trash.
 
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