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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SD said:
Can't wait to get a SE ridge for Christmas

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:(

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_65.png
 
SD said:
Can't wait to get a SE ridge for Christmas

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It’s coming. I don’t think we see the pattern repeat...I could be wrong and we’ll see.


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whatalife said:
It’s coming. I don’t think we see the pattern repeat...I could be wrong and we’ll see.


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Not sure about a pattern repeat as that is a ways out and things are a bit murky (and frankly, not looking so swell at this particular point in time). No doubt around the 19th things have a probability of getting N to AN in our neck of the woods.
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

What will be interesting to watch over the next several days is what the PNA does, as well as the AO and NAO (either or both).
For now, the PNA looks to go negative from about the 16th to 20th, but then tick back up to slightly positive (nothing like what we've seen recently); the NAO looks to stay positive, but not horribly so as we move past the 20th.
4indices.png

A lot to watch, but as Larry has pointed out, there are fish swimming upstream; just hoping they swim down and give all of us a winter from Christmas Eve until at least mid to late January.
Stay tuned ...
 
Shawn said:
Sadly, I haven't seen much if any fantasy storms on the GFS in recent days. This does not bode well through Christmas. What happened to the 13-16th time-frame!
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I am a little bummed that it doesn’t look like I have many snow chances in the next few weeks even though there’s plenty of cold. As I’ve said before though I really don’t except to see much snow until mid January most years. Hopefully the NINA doesn’t mess that up.
 
olhausen said:
I am a little bummed that it doesn’t look like I have many snow chances in the next few weeks even though there’s plenty of cold. As I’ve said before though I really don’t except to see much snow until mid January most years. Hopefully the NINA doesn’t mess that up.
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I think we're going to have to hope this doesn't verify as a front-loaded winter
 
pcbjr said:
Not sure about a pattern repeat as that is a ways out and things are a bit murky (and frankly, not looking so swell at this particular point in time). No doubt around the 19th things have a probability of getting N to AN in our neck of the woods.
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

What will be interesting to watch over the next several days is what the PNA does, as well as the AO and NAO (either or both).
For now, the PNA looks to go negative from about the 16th to 20th, but then tick back up to slightly positive (nothing like what we've seen recently); the NAO looks to stay positive, but not horribly so as we move past the 20th.
4indices.png

A lot to watch, but as Larry has pointed out, there are fish swimming upstream; just hoping they swim down and give all of us a winter from Christmas Eve until at least mid to late January.
Stay tuned ...
Click to expand...

That potential late Dec cold into the N US would initially be driven mainly by a -EPO but we could use a +PNA to help drive it down here.
 
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