Wintry December 28-29th Possible Winter Storm

[Oconeexman]

Nope awaiting 0z runs

 

[MBell]

This is what I would call threading the needle with such small shifts and big changes as a result. Yikes!


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[SoutheastRidge]

Im not sure if it was mentioned, but the NAVGEM was less suppressed.

 

[Shawn]

Im not sure if it was mentioned, but the NAVGEM was less suppressed.

That's a good thing if you're looking for a storm. It's usually way too much suppressed, so another score against the GFS.

 

[Webberweather53]

Just more evidence that the GFS is full of crap and should be tossed. Its replacement model (FV3) has our storm

 

[BPATL]

I just do not understand watching the GFS how it is so bi-polar, one run or two is epic, the others are blowtorch???

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Since there is already a replacement for the GFS why not just retire the GFS already ?

 

[Snowfan]

Because the replacement model is in 2019.

 

[Cad Wedge NC]

Since there is already a replacement for the GFS why not just retire the GFS already ?

Is there a link to the FV3?

 

[BPATL]

These winter storms in the South have a mind of their own, don't rely on one model run on any model. The mets in ATL forecast 1 inch a few hours before the bottom fell out a few weeks ago..

 

[Webberweather53]

Since there is already a replacement for the GFS why not just retire the GFS already ?

They're still making adjustments to the model and in-house verification but I would agree with u that NCEP should have made a new model to replace the GFS long ago.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

These winter storms in the South have a mind of their own, don't rely on one model run on any model. The mets in ATL forecast 1 inch a few hours before the bottom fell out a few weeks ago..

I dont even get my weather info from tv mets any more like i used to. I think the people on here are much more reliable and accurate than they are.

 

[Webberweather53]

For those that are curious where to find a prototype page that provides the FV3 model that'll replace the GFS after this upcoming year.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html

 

[Shawn]

For those that are curious where to find a prototype page that provides the FV3 model that'll replace the GFS after this upcoming year.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/cguastini/fv3/fv3images.html

Thank you, I was looking for this everywhere!

 

[Shawn]

Nice! So, the FV3 is like the Euro:

GFS on left, FV3 on the right same time:

 

[BPATL]

Nice! So, the FV3 is like the Euro:

GFS on left, FV3 on the right same time:

That is insane, WTF, why do we even look at the GFS anymore??

 

[Shawn]

That is insane, WTF, why do we even look at the GFS anymore??

The FV3 is going to take time to work all the kinks out; but this is a good sign that we have a model that has a similar Euro solution; since we know how good the Euro is as a whole, regardless of individual storm scores.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

That is insane, WTF, why do we even look at the GFS anymore??

Great question, it’s absolutely worthless

 

[BPATL]

The FV3 is going to take time to work all the kinks out; but this is a good sign that we have a model that has a similar Euro solution; since we know how good the Euro is as a whole, regardless of individual storm scores.

Agree, but look at the upper Midwest, almost identical to the GFS, the GFS just has a difficult with the SE...

 

[Nam0806]

That is insane, WTF, why do we even look at the GFS anymore??

I don't look at the GFS anymore, it's had multiple solutions and been so inconsistent over the last few days, it's not even reliable. You'd think the closer we get to actual verification time, it would translate to something remotely close to what is happening.