Probably 2 different threats in this window.
Maybe folks are getting tired of the severe threats turning into duds. MS and AL are usually good for severe weather, but there's a lot of crying wolf in NC, SC and GA lately.I'm a little surprised this thread isn't popping. I wouldn't be shocked to see the enh expanded and potentially upgraded in some areas of ms/al.
It'll be interesting to see the nature of this as time progresses alot of divergence and forcing may lead to a well developed mcs that chases cape and rides the theta e boundary cutting off the rain and severe threat in north ga and a part of SC/NC.
We haven't had a legit threat here yet. We've had a couple of good kinematic days and a couple decent thermodynamic days but nothing that overlapped to 2 to really get hypedMaybe folks are getting tired of the severe threats turning into duds. MS and AL are usually good for severe weather, but there's a lot of crying wolf in NC, SC and GA lately.
We haven't had a legit threat here yet. We've had a couple of good kinematic days and a couple decent thermodynamic days but nothing that overlapped to 2 to really get hyped
I completely disagree with SPC's broad area of risk across the deep South, but that small area in southern MS is always juiced in this type of setup. You could go with a 6-8 county MOD risk bullseye, downgrading 1 level as you expand in 1 county rings.One thing about the threat tomorrow that is sticking out is that meal/secondary low some of the models are forming over southern MS. This is the type of setup where for most of us the storm mode is messy with the main threat being the QLCS. In southern MS however, this is the type of event where you get a few supercells to really show out, especially if you get enhanced helicity from that secondary low.
You wouldn't know that by the way WRAL was acting with last week's "threat."We haven't had a legit threat here yet. We've had a couple of good kinematic days and a couple decent thermodynamic days but nothing that overlapped to 2 to really get hyped
I completely disagree with SPC's broad area of risk across the deep South, but that small area in southern MS is always juiced in this type of setup. You could go with a 6-8 county MOD risk bullseye, downgrading 1 level as you expand in 1 county rings.
Not really surprised. This setup is boom or bust for us and is so highly dependent on the evolution of convection to our SW. Given the amount of forcing, divergence and cape over us and to the south this setup on particular has a tendency to be self limiting since more often than not since deep convection and a mcs is likely which either #1 chokes out moisture transport or #2 sends a decaying mcs into the area early in the day leaving us too stable or with subsidence during peak heating. If we didn't have the organized area of storms or it was moving through later in the day the threat would be more substantial (see March 1984 for a similar but not perfect analog. When looking at the at days 2-5 I think it's much better to raise attention to it and back down versus waiting until day 2 to see the convective evolution to our SW then start sounding the alarm.The SPC reduced the severe threat here to a level 1. I know, shocking.
It keeps shifting south though.FFC says some areas could get up to 5” of rain !
South of Macon and Columbus looks to be the bullseye.It keeps shifting south though.