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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

GaWx said:
12Z EPS: Still a bit of a split with where the surface low forms (just E of FL vs S of FL/GOM). Interestingly, the strongest member is way west in TX just E of Galveston!
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Wouldn't that be something if it ended up in TX.....we've seen stranger things...
 
mrdaddyman said:
For those of you with an unhealthy obsession with Hugo, LOL:

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For those who survived it, you don't have to post this. The memory of it lives on, just as those who survived Dorian. They remember it everyday and you can see the fear in their eyes when talk begins of another major hurricane in Charleston. They are the first ones to leave town. A good friend of mine says he remembers the strong smells of pine where the all the pine trees were laid down for miles.....smells of burning, where they burned the downed trees and brush because it was too much for garbage to haul off.....how hot it was with no electricity for months. Yea, they remember.....
 
JB worried about the ridge next week on his recent tweets. Says they will come “Hugo, Katrina, etc”). So when they don’t come let’s ask him where they at
 
BirdManDoomW said:
JB worried about the ridge next week on his recent tweets. Says they will come “Hugo, Katrina, etc”). So when they don’t come let’s ask him where they at
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Gotta wait and see if they don't come....he might be right. Clearly nothing out there to stop it if it gets in the right place at the right time.... they have an uncanny way of doing that....
 
Henry2326 said:
For those who survived it, you don't have to post this. The memory of it lives on, just as those who survived Dorian. They remember it everyday and you can see the fear in their eyes when talk begins of another major hurricane in Charleston. They are the first ones to leave town. A good friend of mine says he remembers the strong smells of pine where the all the pine trees were laid down for miles.....smells of burning, where they burned the downed trees and brush because it was too much for garbage to haul off.....how hot it was with no electricity for months. Yea, they remember.....
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Yeah, I lived through Fran and it has been permanently singed into my memory. I get that same uneasy feeling every time another hurricane is bearing down on us.
 
A little off topic, but tropic related, I don’t think it happened by chance that another future hurricane is going to go over waters left by Dorian. Seems to happen a lot.
 
This might be 97L soon, it looks healthy on the IR loop:

Another tropical wave is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

No wonder the models are having trouble of late. There's 3 x's close together here:

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If I were a bettor, the one that's mandarin will probably take over and get strong, but also likely curve OTS thankfully. 96L has some pretty good spin but not much to the thunderstorms right now. But if it survives and gets to the gulf, there might be some problems...
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
This might be 97L soon, it looks healthy on the IR loop:

Another tropical wave is located about 600 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

No wonder the models are having trouble of late. There's 3 x's close together here:

View attachment 23555

If I were a bettor, the one that's mandarin will probably take over and get strong, but also likely curve OTS thankfully. 96L has some pretty good spin but not much to the thunderstorms right now. But if it survives and gets to the gulf, there might be some problems...
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Something eventually will come you would think with 3 x's
 
After thinking about it for a minute, I've come to this conclusion:

The storm that I've been seeing on the GFS is not what 96L is. It's occasionally been the wave close to the wave that could get strong developing. Lol yeah...confusing but unless you have one that doesn't deepen and can get closer to the US, we might not have problems here.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
After thinking about it for a minute, I've come to this conclusion:

The storm that I've been seeing on the GFS is not what 96L is. It's occasionally been the wave close to the wave that could get strong developing. Lol yeah...confusing but unless you have one that doesn't deepen and can get closer to the US, we might not have problems here.
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How did you change your mind so fast? Lol, but with 3 areas out there something could shoot west
 
I wasn't calling no development, just said after I looked at that map for a while that I no longer think the other storm is 96L.

But whichever one it is, it needs to be watched if future 97L doesn't absorb it and it stays weak enough to be a Caribbean cruiser and get to the Gulf of Mexico bath tub. If so, all bets are off.

Beware the I storm might not be real this time (edit: at least for the US), but who knows about the future...

Edit: Nevermind lol, as it turns out that other "X" got absorbed, this is confusing lmao and I'm not really fully involved here.
 
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