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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion
- Thread starter CyclonicFury
- Start date
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- tropical
Jessy89
Member
From Accuweather
I hope it can bring South Carolina some rain. Especially the upstate. We need a good soaking!
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From Accuweather
This is the entity that would have the best chance to cool some of the Gulf a couple of degrees, especially if it were to lead to several days of clouds/rain. But I'm not counting on much from it and it could easily warm right back up the following week, regardless, especially considering the deep Gulf warmth as well as hot air temps that would likely return. So, not much hope for sig cooling of the Gulf the next 2 weeks.
Yep, this needs to continue to be closely monitored. It could end up being the most significant tropical feature of anything on the map currently for all we know, especially because it will be traversing very warm waters and will not be recurving. Conditions in the atmosphere will become at least marginally favorable for TC genesis.
The 6Z Euro ensemble is tied for the most active of at least the last 4 EPS with 9 of the 51 members with an actual TC. If Weathernerds had the 6Z, they would likely be showing even more than the 15 or so surface lows that they show for the 0Z.
In terms of actual TCs, the 9 on the 6Z compares to 3 on the 0Z, 9 on the last 18Z, and 3 on the last 12Z. Also, there remain 2 pretty distinct camps of tracks with one moving more slowly NW/NNW/N into the E coast of FL and further north without necessarily ever going into the Gulf, similar to the 6Z ICON, while the other camp moves more quickly WNW and then NW with hits in the AL/MS/LA corridor. This second camp would have more potential to eventually become a stronger storm as it would cross about the warmest SSTs in the entire Atlantic basin.
In terms of actual TCs, the 9 on the 6Z compares to 3 on the 0Z, 9 on the last 18Z, and 3 on the last 12Z. Also, there remain 2 pretty distinct camps of tracks with one moving more slowly NW/NNW/N into the E coast of FL and further north without necessarily ever going into the Gulf, similar to the 6Z ICON, while the other camp moves more quickly WNW and then NW with hits in the AL/MS/LA corridor. This second camp would have more potential to eventually become a stronger storm as it would cross about the warmest SSTs in the entire Atlantic basin.
Henry2326
Member
Sounds like the same conversation over a week ago.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Convection from that is looking pretty healthy. I would just like some rain from it, hopefully it doesn't evolve into more of a surprise.
Is this going to steer into TX/MX, or curve up into gulf states, as currently modeled!?
1. It goes into AL/MS at hour 132 as possibly a TD.
2. 2Z UKMET:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.3N 91.7W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 27.4N 92.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 28.1N 93.3W 1005 28
Keep watching this one, folks!
Henry2326
Member
12z Icon brings it up to SC and let's it spin there on the ridge.....
12Z CMC is also a bit stronger with a sfc low in the E central GOM moving NW at hour 96.
Bad news, the 12z GFS has a storm near the SE at day 10. (a little bit of)Good news, it then shows it recurving away. But still too far out. At this point we have to still focus on will there even be a storm.
Edit: LOL, it doesn't recurve the storm. It just parks it off the coast (out to day 11). Way out in never land but I guess all options are on the board.
Edit: LOL, it doesn't recurve the storm. It just parks it off the coast (out to day 11). Way out in never land but I guess all options are on the board.
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Yeah, but this is a clear outlier among the major operationals (I don't count the very low skilled NAM for the tropics). It is splitting off the energy (note that there is a very weak low in the NW GOM even on this map you showed) and concentrating more of it offshore the SE coast, which never really makes landfall. The 6Z and some runs from yesterday were similar. As I recall, the ICON didn't do so well out 5 days or so with Dorian since it had him hit FL on a number of runs when he was in the Bahamas and it has no proven good record for the tropics unlike the Euro. That being said, some EPS members have been doing something similar. So, I'm not fully discounting that idea yet though I consider that ICON type of scenario only a low possiblity right now....perhaps 20%.
Henry2326
Member
Im with ya....just reporting what I see. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut occasionally. Never know. Lol
12Z EPS: Still a bit of a split with where the surface low forms (just E of FL vs S of FL/GOM). Interestingly, the strongest member is way west in TX just E of Galveston!