NWS BMX
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST THU DEC 7 2023
*Marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms across west
Alabama starting late Saturday.
A
trough and associated surface
front will swing across the Gulf
Coast region over the weekend as a weak surface low moves toward
the Great Lakes. Saturday morning and afternoon should include a
few clusters of showers due to low- to mid-level lift across the
area.
Upstream, a band of rain and storms is expected to develop
from the Ohio Valley southwestward to the Lower Mississippi River
Valley Saturday afternoon. As this activity moves across central
Alabama late Saturday into early Sunday, the storm environment
will be characterized by high
shear/low
instability, which has
been a consistent theme for many model cycles. MUCAPE around 500
J/kg is modeled to occur in a narrow ribbon against the line of
convection, mainly across west Alabama before becoming more
stunted through the night farther east.
It appears that we`ll experience a band of heavy rain with the
potential for embedded storm elements. The ability for any
cell to
produce a damaging
wind gust or brief
tornado will be especially
dependent on storm evolution and organization given the low-
instability environment. A marginal risk (level 1 of 5) best fits
the situation. The risk area looks good (generally along and west
of the 65). The 4 pm start time is something I was eyeing; if
trends hold, it may be okay to push it back a couple hours, but I
will let the night shift take a look at new cycles of/additional
CAMs that`ll then be within range.
It`ll also be breezy on Saturday from the south/out ahead of the
front and then out of the northwest/behind the
front on Sunday
(plus colder temperatures). Several communities stand to pick up
between one to two inches of rain Saturday into early Sunday.
High pressure then advances across the region during the upcoming
work week, bring days`s worth of quiet weather conditions.
89^GSatterwhite