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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

So I'm a little confused both the EPS and GEFS show the NAO trending toward negative in mid-Feb, but the Euro & GFS operationals show it going wildly positive.. I genuinely don't get it:
gfs_nao_forecast.png
ecmwf_eps_nao_2018020212.png
 
Euro looks mighty interesting here next weekend o_O

Not so interesting for most of yall to the east, congrats Chicago
 
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whamby said:
So I'm a little confused both the EPS and GEFS show the NAO trending toward negative in mid-Feb, but the Euro & GFS operationals show it going wildly positive.. I genuinely don't get it:
gfs_nao_forecast.png
ecmwf_eps_nao_2018020212.png
Click to expand...

This is showing the same thing. Top imagine has a larger time frame on the X axis which makes it “taller”. Peak at 2/11 and trending downward on both the Op GFS and EPS here


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Gefs is screaming at a big cad event next sunday into monday

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SD said:
Goodbye strat pv.
173d52c84036c3d0c9d7122afe81325b.jpg


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Question is what will the downstream impacts be. I've seen many " experts " this week suggest the impacts wont be near as great for our side of the world

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whatalife said:
Really? Are you snow map loving again Charlie?
4d01cc1ecdb97dc0d6f30831869f6b5f.jpg
c81aa18097a9ca61d2696d328681fb2f.jpg





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Click to expand...
Nope, my toddler decided today would be the first day he slept in past 6 on a Saturday so i I had two hours to kill. Looked at every single gefs member which btw they all seem to handle the trough differently . Either way it will be gone by 12z

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Storm5 said:
Nope, my toddler decided today would be the first day he slept in past 6 on a Saturday so i I had two hours to kill. Looked at every single gefs member which btw they all seem to handle the trough differently . Either way it will be gone by 12z

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Click to expand...

Well at least he slept later.


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Actually the GEFS has shown something small over the past few runs around 2/11. It's not much because it's ensembles are torn about which way to go. 0z was meager but looking at pivotal, it's back on the 6z.

Edit: That's how we got started I believe with the NC special but I've just been burned so much by the GEFS over this winter and last winter.
 
Well no cutoff low for the energy around day 8, so we're trending better (hasn't been one on the 6z or 12z).
 
Robert @ WxSouth has abandoned his prior optimism on the mid term, still holding out hope for the long term.

“As for any snow and ice, right now the trough shape is not quite right most of the Southeast for a while. This is a pattern where there isn't quite enough cold air far to the South, but Kentucky, northern Arkansas and West Virginia will always be close , since they are north of the main storm tracks.The storm track cuts too far inland for the next couple of weeks it appears.Then followed by quick cooldowns, then warm up and rain. Wash , rinse, repeat. Perhaps later on this month we get the perfect balance of good storm track and cold enough air in place for more regions of the Southeast.”
 
A CAD event around 2/11-2/13 might have some legs...North NC had some wintry from it and the GEFS had been showing something small around there.

edit: looool a cutoff does show up but it's in lala land.
 
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