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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

It seems like we really aren't getting any strong HP to our north at all. They're all dropping from the west
Just a thought.
The cold region includes the NW. With a NW snow pack, the air stays colder as a HP moves east (all we need is that snow pack) ... but given the return flow on a true north strong HP over time as it moves east (absent some substantial blocking), seems that a strong NW high can produce as much cold air and perhaps have it last a little longer before its southerly return flow kicks in.
Just a thought ...
 
Being that we're now within 48 hours of this event for most of us, wouldn't this be about the time to start giving the higher resolution models, such as the NAM, more weight over the globals? I know all should be considered, I've just seen a loooot of comments regarding the inconsistency of say the NAM outside of a certain number of hours.

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Being that we're now within 48 hours of this event for most of us, wouldn't this be about the time to start giving the higher resolution models, such as the NAM, more weight over the globals? I know all should be considered, I've just seen a loooot of comments regarding the inconsistency of say the NAM outside of a certain number of hours.

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Being that we're now within 48 hours of this event for most of us, wouldn't this be about the time to start giving the higher resolution models, such as the NAM, more weight over the globals? I know all should be considered, I've just seen a loooot of comments regarding the inconsistency of say the NAM outside of a certain number of hours.

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The NAM isn't nearly as bad as people tend to claim. It does some wonky things sometimes, like all modeling, of course.
 
Being that we're now within 48 hours of this event for most of us, wouldn't this be about the time to start giving the higher resolution models, such as the NAM, more weight over the globals? I know all should be considered, I've just seen a loooot of comments regarding the inconsistency of say the NAM outside of a certain number of hours.

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I'd rather look at the 3k nam or rgem over the 12k nam

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Agree with burns on this... models wanting go zonal around that frame
Watch the PNA ...

and BTW ...

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The 0Z GEFS based AO forecast this morning is much less negative than it was in recent days. Now the 12/1-15 averaged forecast for it is only down to near -1 vs it having been between -1.5 and -2. Also, it has it rising some afterward. In addition, the PNA forecast is less positive. Furthermore, the 0Z EPS becomes more zonal in the 11-15. This is all consistent with warming trends/more zonal flow. Hopefully, these last few runs are just a burp and the models will revert back to a stronger -AO/+PNA.
 
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