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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

GaWx said:
Well hot dog, Phil would get his long awaited bug killing 1st freeze next week on Thu 12/14 per the 0Z GFS!
The tall western ridge means business on this run for next week.
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We need to get some pellets down to Phil. I sort of told him it was coming, lol. Meanwhile, I'm still in the sweet spot, which is making me very paranoid. I still remember with great pain being under a heavy snow warning, and having it go Miller B and miss me altogether in the 70's. Impressionable minds can be warped by such as that. I'd much rather it sneak up on me, lol. T
 
dsaur said:
We need to get some pellets down to Phil. I sort of told him it was coming, lol. Meanwhile, I'm still in the sweet spot, which is making me very paranoid. I still remember with great pain being under a heavy snow warning, and having it go Miller B and miss me altogether in the 70's. Impressionable minds can be warped by such as that. I'd much rather it sneak up on me, lol. T
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Tony,
Thanks!
You get yours!
Hope springs eternal down here, but actually I'd prefer waiting until late month or early next, since usually early frozen down here leads to a fairly big warm up afterwards (least ways down in this neck of the woods) ... which I wouldn't wish on anyone here!
BTW - you may get a 2nd shot next week, and the probabilities are somewhat encouraging ...
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

:eek:
 
pcbjr said:
Tony,
Thanks!
You get yours!
Hope springs eternal down here, but actually I'd prefer waiting until late month or early next, since usually early frozen down here leads to a fairly big warm up afterwards (least ways down in this neck of the woods) ... which I wouldn't wish on anyone here!
BTW - you may get a 2nd shot next week, and the probabilities are somewhat encouraging ...
sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif

sfc_count_sup814_prec.gif

:eek:
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Lol, January chances in early/mid Dec. who'd have thunk it...well, besides Larry :) Maybe this is the year we all of us get well. T
 
I have been following long enough to know not to trust the NAM outside 36-48 hours, but why do people follow its output beyond that time frame if it is inaccurate at best? Might be entertainment purposes but it seems like some people always point to NAM output with a disclaimer that it sucks. Why even bring it up outside its wheelhouse? Just curious.
 
Roswellian said:
I have been following long enough to know not to trust the NAM outside 36-48 hours, but why do people follow its output beyond that time frame if it is inaccurate at best? Might be entertainment purposes but it seems like some people always point to NAM output with a disclaimer that it sucks. Why even bring it up outside its wheelhouse? Just curious.
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Couple of reasons I can think of, inevitably somebody is going to post it so might as well go ahead and post it with the disclaimer in other words there's no way NAM clown maps don't show up so explain them. Other reason, it's a weather discussion board so discuss it, no different then discussing 384 hr GFS maps, we know they won't verify but hey that's what we do on weather forums.

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metwannabe said:
Couple of reasons I can think of, inevitably somebody is going to post it so might as well go ahead and post it with the disclaimer in other words there's no way NAM clown maps don't show up so explain them. Other reason, it's a weather discussion board so discuss it, no different then discussing 384 hr GFS maps, we know they won't verify but hey that's what we do on weather forums.

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Got it and I appreciate the reasoned response. Trying to soak in as much as I can at this board.
 
Would be nice to see that storm on the 20th verify colder with time! Pattern certainly looks like its starting to get active.
 
50’s here and sun in north miss, 30’s and cold rain close to the coast in south miss. so far this pattern has brought me very slightly below normal temps. And looks like I will have to wait till the next pattern change for a good snow chance here, hope there is one, yes I know, that’s life. I gave up on winter in 2015 at the end of February, 2 days later 7 inches of snow.
 
whamby said:
MRX taking out any small chance for snow shower activity this weekend for southern Tn valley.. guess I can't blame them:
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)...The theme for Thursday
through Friday Night will be that the Tennessee Valley/southern
Appalachians will be between the northern stream storm track (over
the Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley) and southern stream (from Texas
across the southeast United States). Plenty of high level clouds
will remain, but precipitation will be rather limited.

For Saturday, latest GFS and ECMWF agree with taking a fast moving
short-wave farther north across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and
just brushing southwest virginia and northeast Tennessee with light
precipitation. A mixture of snow and rain showers are expected.
Limited snow accumulations are possible across the higher
elevations, such as High Knob, especially Saturday night.

For Sunday and Monday, dry west to northwest flow aloft and
surface ridging will produce dry conditions and milder
temperatures for Monday.

For Monday night and Tuesday, another short-wave dives toward the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Precipitation in for the form of snow is
possible, but the evolution of the system will likely change, so will
not get too specific.

--------for what it's worth, nrgjeff over at americanwx basically put the poo-poo on this 12 hours ago for the CHA area. Good call. He's a damn good met/poster btw, wish he posted over here too.
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Sadly us folks in Tennessee don’t have much skin in the game for this winter wx coming up. Good news is that it’s still early December and the pattern is great. Hopefully our friends to the south score on the current storm that is on the horizon.
 
Storm5 said:
Anyone with the eps, please post your thoughts on the pattern as we roll forwArd in time
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Looks like we may get a brief break in the pattern for a day or two around the 20ish but both the 12z GEFS and 12z EPS bring us right back to below normal by the end of their runs.


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Webberweather53 said:
Here's the storm we've been looking for... Goes right over the Apps and into the mid Atlantic
View attachment 1911
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Nice to see it on both the gfs and Euro. If you take the GFS bias of scooting systems too fast in the southern stream at this range we have a good shot at something really nice coming up. Gives that cold push more time to work in and perhaps keeps the system south.
 
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