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Severe Severe threat May 3-5

JHS said:
Yep this looks nasty for both Carolinas and in parts of east GA too. 1 big question will be where the CAD front sets up. Areas along and just south of it will have an increased tornado risk. If GSP is right, most of both states will be in the warm sector when that line comes through. The front will probably be farther south for the super cells though. I suspect the area from Athens Ga to Columbia SC up towards Fayetteville NC will have to deal with those.
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That's what I'm wondering and how will the squall line/outflow tonight affect the northward surge of the warm front if at all. Also will there be convective development along and North of the warm front tomorrow to slow it's progression The one thing I find interesting is the fact that will be looking at SE winds tomorrow versus SW, which would bring in plenty of atlantic moisture. Personally I think the slight gets expanded and we may see a mgnl for parts of Ga, SC, NC


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Not too pretty for some folks now as we enjoy dinner .... time sensitive

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JHS said:
The model Brad Panovich shows on his Facebook page shows a major line of storms moving over much of NC and SC tomorrow evening into the overnight Friday morning. If that verifies and we do NOT have CAD I could see a decent wind threat occurring with this line. I think that slight risk could get larger as we get closer. He did mention a warm front possibly being somewhere close to the NC SC border area though. If that front is there, things could get complicated
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There always seems to be a wedge magically appear and save us, like the high risk event a few week back and we stuck in the 50s and models were not picking that up!?
 
Another thing will be gulf coast convection possibly cutting into our moisture supply. If we get SE winds though through a deep enough layer, that may not be as big of an issue as it could be. I agree about convection along and north of the warm front. That is the big reason why the big outbreak forecasted a few weeks ago wasn't as bad as it could have been especially for north GA, northwest SC and much of NC. All of the convection we had kept that front from coming north like it was supposed to.
 
SD said:
That's what I'm wondering and how will the squall line/outflow tonight affect the northward surge of the warm front if at all. Also will there be convective development along and North of the warm front tomorrow to slow it's progression The one thing I find interesting is the fact that will be looking at SE winds tomorrow versus SW, which would bring in plenty of atlantic moisture. Personally I think the slight gets expanded and we may see a mgnl for parts of Ga, SC, NC


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I think you meant enhanced and yeah I agree that the slight gets expanded and enhanced added for some of us.
 
JHS said:
Another thing will be gulf coast convection possibly cutting into our moisture supply. If we get SE winds though through a deep enough layer, that may not be as big of an issue as it could be. I agree about convection along and north of the warm front. That is the big reason why the big outbreak forecasted a few weeks ago wasn't as bad as it could have been especially for north GA, northwest SC and much of NC. All of the convection we had kept that front from coming north like it was supposed to.
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If I remember correctly, it was the wedge that prevented the stronger weather more than the convection robbing. The environment would have been there, and was for Northern Alabama, but the wedge stopped the storms dead in their tracks from being severe.
 
Can we start a poll on who really wants severe weather?
And then ask about IMBY as a follow-up?
 
Tarheel1 said:
There always seems to be a wedge magically appear and save us, like the high risk event a few week back and we stuck in the 50s and models were not picking that up!?
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The NAM had it but the NWS and all of us here chose to ignore it. Ignoring the NAM that day was a mistake.
 
ForsythSnow said:
If I remember correctly, it was the wedge that prevented the stronger weather more than the convection robbing. The environment would have been there, and was for Northern Alabama, but the wedge stopped the storms dead in their tracks from being severe.
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In that case it certainly was the warm front not getting north that kept the event from getting out of hand. For this event though, both of them may come into play.
 
JHS said:
The NAM had it but the NWS and all of us here chose to ignore it. Ignoring the NAM that day was a mistake.
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As it is in winter storms, as well!
 
ForsythSnow said:
Enhanced is way too far for this event. Marginal or slight at the most for the areas, except the south parts of Georgia maybe.
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I'm not sure about that. The NAM 3K has a very nasty look to it and has a line coming through that would support an enhanced risk for wind. Another thing is that there will be a wedge front somewhere and that could support enough of a tornado threat to verify an enhanced risk. Of course if that wedge front is farther south and or coastal convection does its thing the slight and marginal would be the way to go.
 
JHS said:
I think you meant enhanced and yeah I agree that the slight gets expanded and enhanced added for some of us.
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You are correct. The new categories and colors still have me confused

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ForsythSnow said:
Enhanced is way too far for this event. Marginal or slight at the most for the areas, except the south parts of Georgia maybe.
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I think it's very possible depending on how gungho SPC is about the wind damage potential

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SD said:
I think it's very possible depending on how gungho SPC is about the wind damage potential

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Just saw the 18Z NAM and I could now agree based on trends that Georgia East should be watching this. Hopefully the SPC learned from the past events to take things a bit slower and look over things more when calling risks, but still fast enough to alert the public.
 
Anybody expect a moderate risk tomorrow from SPC? I think if we see a lot of stratiform rain tomorrow morning/afternoon, that will quell the severe threat! The last line on Monday, was definitely over~Hyped in the Carolinas, in my opinion. We are supposed to see SE winds tomorrow , so I guess it will be now-casting time
 
Tarheel1 said:
Anybody expect a moderate risk tomorrow from SPC? I think if we see a lot of stratiform rain tomorrow morning/afternoon, that will quell the severe threat! The last line on Monday, was definitely over~Hyped in the Carolinas, in my opinion. We are supposed to see SE winds tomorrow , so I guess it will be now-casting time
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I might be getting a little bullish but I could see it especially for east Ga most of SC and SE NC

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I'm not quite sure what to think on this one. As you folks have mentioned the warm front is supposed to lift north in the morning bringing some convection with it, local mets have even mentioned some super cells at random places through most of Georgia during the day. Also, there is supposed to be coastal convection but with the SE winds that shouldn't matter. Finally, the cold front is supposed to pass and be led with more supercells and then a linear line. The front is supposed to pass through Ga in the late evening hours meaning that it would make the Carolinas after midnight.

So far no one is really playing it up, I just wonder how it's all going to boil down. Lots of factors at play on this one. As always though, hope it doesn't hit here.
 
Hrrr is cutting off the dew point surge with the remant outflow/ rain band but dewpoints start to recover behind it and by the end of the run you can see what will be tomorrow afternoon and nights line forming in Al

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