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Pattern Ah-choo April Discussion

And as for weather -

For the next week or two - GFS is saying generally normal; MJO is looking cool; CPC is baking. Gotta clue?
 
skywatcher said:
I keep my AC set at 76° unless I'm doing something like cleaning, cooking, or have been working outside and need a cool down, then I'll bump it down for a bit. But I lower it to 74° or a bit lower at bedtime. Y'all are about to find out that I'm a summertime fan :D
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I would LOVE summer if i lived in say Minnesota or Maine. They have beautiful summers. I just can't say that I enjoy summers in the south. I think it's the length of summer that gets me. If we could just have 3 months of summer I would be fine with that. Just not another summer like last year.
 
Weather was great today for my sons baseball games
 
pcbjr said:
Larry/Webb/Jon - MJO thoughts?
Phil

(back to learnin' in other words) :cool:
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Well, Phil, to be honest, I have done none of my own analysis of the correlation of April MJO with SE temps. So, I have nothing to add to the charts you showed, which suggest it may not get hot anytime soon. I hope that is right. Also, I recommend you go with EPS over GEFS as it is more accurate.
 
skywatcher said:
Mine too. Not to mention the unfrigginbelievable rates they charge for watering the lawn.
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Do you happen to have a separate water meter for the water used to water the lawn? If not and if you plan to remain in your home for at least several more years, you should at least look into getting a 2nd meter if that is an option at your location. Although not cheap (it would run 500-1000+), it could pay for itself within 1-2 years depending on your water usage for irrigation and the sewer rates for that.
I'm sure Powerstroke knows all about this as he is in the lawn biz.
 
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GaWx said:
Do you happen to have a separate water meter for the water used to water the lawn? If not and if you plan to remain in your home for at least several more years, you should at least look into getting a 2nd meter if that is an option at your location. Although not cheap (it would run 500-1000+), it could pay for itself within 1-2 years depending on your water usage for irrigation and the sewer rates for that.
I'm sure Powerstroke knows all about this as he is in the lawn biz.
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Evidently, the water meters here are made from gold. It costs upwards of $2000 for a separate meter. Oh, and the water must be laced with gold, too. Highest water rates I've ever seen anywhere. Crazy.
 
GaWx said:
Well, Phil, to be honest, I have done none of my own analysis of the correlation of April MJO with SE temps. So, I have nothing to add to the charts you showed, which suggest it may not get hot anytime soon. I hope that is right. Also, I recommend you go with EPS over GEFS as it is more accurate.
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Thanks, Man!
My feeble attempt was/is to get some weather discussion going by folks like you and Webb and Jon ... ;)
Best!
Phil
 
GaWx said:
Well, Phil, to be honest, I have done none of my own analysis of the correlation of April MJO with SE temps. So, I have nothing to add to the charts you showed, which suggest it may not get hot anytime soon. I hope that is right. Also, I recommend you go with EPS over GEFS as it is more accurate.
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PS - I have bad EPS karma and jinx it for the whole region every time I rely on it ... it's just me and not the model, btw ... :eek:
 
Looks like spring has sprung ...

curtmp.png
 
accu35 said:
i rather it hurry up and come and go, im pretty bored right now lol
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Judging from the activity (as I sit here in my office getting ready for the upcoming week) -- looks like everyone is bored - at least with current weather ... LOL :(
 
GaWx said:
On another subject, Gainesville has had much better nights

The low got down only to
42 (30 drop from the 72 high) vs my prediction of 35, the NWS prediction of 39, and the GFS prediction of 48. So this was a big humbling bust for me but it also shows how unpredictable can be radiational cooling. Palatka, which is only 40 miles to the east and isn't an especially colder spot, got down to 37 by 5AM!

Looking ahead, the 6Z GFS has their high at 73. I'm going with 76. Tonight it has a low of 51 while the NWS has 46. I'm going with 45. This is fun.
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Gainesville's highs continue to be easier to predict than its lows. I missed yesterday's high by only 1 with its 75 vs my 76 guess.

However, the hard to predict radiational cooling played a trick on me again and also stumped NWS. It went down to 40 this morning vs my 45, NWS' 46, and GFS' 51. What's extra interesting is that this was 2 cooler than yesterday's 42 and that was coming off of a high that was 3 warmer! This was only 1 warmer than Palatka vs 5 warmer than Palatka the prior night.

Last night it dropped a whopping 35 vs "only" 30 the night before and what appeared during the evening to be not quite as good radiational cooling conditions! The evening dewpoints and temperatures were a few degrees warmer. Both nights had clear skies and light winds. I think what happened was that winds picked up slightly the prior late night. What really may have happened was that GNV, after being embarrassed the night before, decided to show folks that it still is King of Deep South rad. cooling!
 
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