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Pattern Ah-choo April Discussion

It's azalea planting day! Got 3 Girard's Hot Shot plants delivered by FedEx Thursday. I ordered these Feb. 25th, and naturally, they weren't delivered until we were going to have a couple of cold nights. I'll be glad to get them out of the garage and in the ground today. :)
 
pcbjr said:
Enjoy! I'll get mine @ 5:30 or so tomorrow AM, as per usual.
Gonna ZZZZzzzz soon, so hopefully will catch your thoughts in the AM early, and hopefully - I'll need a light sweatshirt then ... :cool:
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My walk was great & I'm looking forward to this evening's.

On another subject, Gainesville has had much better nights:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pit...gB&biw=568&bih=232&dpr=2#imgrc=ZHj-IlAmkbdayM:

The low got down only to
42 (30 drop from the 72 high) vs my prediction of 35, the NWS prediction of 39, and the GFS prediction of 48. So this was a big humbling bust for me but it also shows how unpredictable can be radiational cooling. Palatka, which is only 40 miles to the east and isn't an especially colder spot, got down to 37 by 5AM!

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/1704080047.fxus62.html

Looking ahead, the 6Z GFS has their high at 73. I'm going with 76. Tonight it has a low of 51 while the NWS has 46. I'm going with 45. This is fun.
 
GaWx said:
My walk was great & I'm looking forward to this evening's.

On another subject, Gainesville has had much better nights:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pit...gB&biw=568&bih=232&dpr=2#imgrc=ZHj-IlAmkbdayM:

The low got down only to
42 (30 drop from the 72 high) vs my prediction of 35, the NWS prediction of 39, and the GFS prediction of 48. So this was a big humbling bust for me but it also shows how unpredictable can be radiational cooling. Palatka, which is only 40 miles to the east and isn't an especially colder spot, got down to 37 by 5AM!

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/1704080047.fxus62.html

Looking ahead, the 6Z GFS has their high at 73. I'm going with 76. Tonight it has a low of 51 while the NWS has 46. I'm going with 45. This is fun.
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big bust for yours truly as well and i'm hiding under a rock ... :oops:

but, yes, it is fun and educational ... :)

thanks for all of your input on everything .... ;)

best,
phil
 
GaWx said:
My walk was great & I'm looking forward to this evening's.

On another subject, Gainesville has had much better nights:

https://www.google.com/search?q=pit...gB&biw=568&bih=232&dpr=2#imgrc=ZHj-IlAmkbdayM:

The low got down only to
42 (30 drop from the 72 high) vs my prediction of 35, the NWS prediction of 39, and the GFS prediction of 48. So this was a big humbling bust for me but it also shows how unpredictable can be radiational cooling. Palatka, which is only 40 miles to the east and isn't an especially colder spot, got down to 37 by 5AM!

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KJAX/1704080047.fxus62.html

Looking ahead, the 6Z GFS has their high at 73. I'm going with 76. Tonight it has a low of 51 while the NWS has 46. I'm going with 45. This is fun.
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1:00 PM and still under 70º !!!!!!!! :D
 
skywatcher said:
I can't think of one single purpose on this earth that wasps serve, other than to freak me out
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they serve one other purpose - making my son do world record sprints on the trail when hiking ... moves his otherwise slow rear end ... LOL
 
GaWx said:
It is absolutely a wonderful spring day! This weekend's combo of cool and Masters is awesome!

Gainesville, a city I've been closely following, often seems to be a good illustration of GFS biases (using MeteoStar at the airport station):

1) The 6Z GFS had their low only down to 50 whereas it actually got down to 44. So, it was a whopping 6 too warm on a run from just 6 hour ago!

2) That same run has their high for today at only 69. It was already 70 as of 2 PM vs the GFS prediction of only 68 for then. I'm guessing 72-3 for a high (still a beautiful day, regardless). Let's see what the high ends up being.

3) That run has their low tonight only down to 47! This is setting up to be a huge bust of 8-12 considering its warm bias there when there are good radiational cooling conditions and considering that its dewpoint is now 9 lower than the 6Z GFS prediction.
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74º and beautiful, Larry; pretty spot-on call ... :D
 
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Looking at the GFS runs out to the horizon - almost seems to wanna be seasonal and behave for a while ...

(another pcbjr bust???? :eek:)
 
... and back to weather - draw your own conclusions :D:

NCPE_phase_21m_full.gif


combined_image.png

Let's see ... o_O
 
... and more back to weather - summer coming soon and hot and dry? CPC is suggesting a start that way -

summary_CFSv2.Na_Prec_Prob.201705.gif


summary_CFSv2.Na_T2m_Prob.201705.gif
 
Larry/Webb/Jon - MJO thoughts?
Phil

(back to learnin' in other words) :cool:
 
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Time for some warm weather. I'm over this cold crap in April.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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