Tropical Major Hurricane Humberto

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GaWx said:
I count 16 of the 51 (32%) 12Z EPS that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
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This is kinda worrisome as it was just 2 ENS showing anything making it back to the US yesterday I believe....still is not likely but if it is the start of a trend to speed up the trough or slow down the storm etc......usually the ENS diverging in the 3-5 day range after being all together means trouble is brewing....
 
Downeastnc said:
This is kinda worrisome as it was just 2 ENS showing anything making it back to the US yesterday I believe....still is not likely but if it is the start of a trend to speed up the trough or slow down the storm etc......usually the ENS diverging in the 3-5 day range after being all together means trouble is brewing....
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Probably nothing but it is interesting that theres more spread than before as we approach that timeframe where thentrough captures it. Wonder if the models are getting more and better data ingested into them?
 
I guess this threat isn’t dead yet! All the media has written it off as a fish storm!
 
Tarheel1 said:
I guess this threat isn’t dead yet! All the media has written it off as a fish storm!
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Well I wouldn't get to interested until we see an OP run or two start showing the trough missing humberto. A handful of ens members is interesting but only gets concerning if we see more show that or op runs giving it more weight or credit as well. Until then it's just a wait and see what the consensus shows.
 
12K NAM has the storm moving SW and would miss Bermuda to the south by a decent bit if it doesnt turn NE soon after the last frame....all the others have the center going over or north of Bermuda....

The 3K NAM is also further NW with the storm by a decent amount at the end of the run

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ICON is pretty much unchanged.....its going to go north of Bermuda but not by much and the pressure is 940ish...
 
GFS might get really close to missing the trough.
Edit: GFS misses the trough. Very far north, not really a hurricane though. Maybe the beginning of a trend?
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Legacy does too but very far north as well.
 
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I guess 00z flipped the switch. Here comes the CMC with a NC/VA hit.
Edit: doesn’t make landfall but would be bad for the beaches after stalling there for days
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Yeah i think if it gets that far east by Bermuda the odds of getting back to the US are nil

I'm still leaning heavily OTS until I see some more solid evidence, it has to stay further west for one(like the CMC)
 
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He looks to haul butt to the east eventually. He is also looking very good right now and I wouldn't be surprised to see him really crank up today.
 
The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. The latitude of Canaveral is about where he was at 8 AM per my eyeballs. The 6Z Euro was a little east of the 0Z...so good news. So, as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying.
Up next: 6Z EPS, which I think will show fewer US hits.
 
GaWx said:
The hour 6 of the 6Z Euro/GFS and hour 12 have him due east of Cape Canaveral. Note that the 6Z GFS/Euro took him safely away from the US. The latitude of Canaveral is about where he was at 8 AM per my eyeballs. The 6Z Euro was a little east of the 0Z...so good news. So, as of now, I’m feeling good about the favored US miss verifying.
Up next: 6Z EPS, which I think will show fewer US hits.
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At this point there seems very little chance this thing gets any closer to the US than it is right now....would be a big miss at this point in the modeling and I think there is no way the modeling is that wrong inthis range but then there was this....

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24 hrs later this was the cone....

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The 6Z Euro ensemble hath just spoken. It is far less threatening than any of the last 3 runs. It has only 1 member with a N.C. hit and only about 2 members with weak TCs hitting FL. There’s only one other member at the end of the run with a weak TC 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral moving WNW at the end. So, it has only about 4 of 51 (8%) members with a US hit or threat and only 1 strong TC.
Folks, the fat lady is stepping up to the mic. The trend is your friend. I’m at only a 5% chance of a US hit now though I’m still going to watch his movement closely the rest of today and tonight to make sure the SE coast is safe.
 
GaWx said:
The 6Z Euro ensemble hath just spoken. It is far less threatening than any of the last 3 runs. It has only 1 member with a N.C. and only about 2 members with weak TCs hitting FL. There’s only one other member at the end of the run with a weak TC 200 miles east of Cape Canaveral moving WNW at the end. So, it has only about 4 of 51 (8%) members with a US hit or threat and only 1 strong TC.
Folks, the fat lady is stepping up to the mic. The trend is your friend. I’m at only a 5% chance of a US hit now though I’m still going to watch his movement closely the rest of today and tonight to make sure the SE coast is safe.
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Yeah one would think is there is a big shift in modeling it will happen during the near stall turn to the east....one thing to look for is a early slowdown or east turn.....but yeah the fat lady is warming up.....I would have to not get very far past 75W IMO to stay a threat.....
 
- NHC 5AM position: 28.3 N, 77.7 W
- 8 AM position: 28.6 N, 77.8 W
- NHC 11 AM position: 28.9 N, 77.9 W
- NHC 5 AM prog for 2 PM: 29.0 N, 77.9 W

So, right on track and no need to worry right now and hopefully for good in the SE US.
 
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GaWx said:
- NHC 5AM position: 28.3 N, 77.7 W
- 8 AM position: 28.6 N, 77.8 W
- NHC 11 AM position: 28.9 N, 77.9 W
- NHC 5 AM prog for 2 PM: 29.0 N, 77.9 W

So, right on track and no need to worry right now and hopefully for good in the SE US.
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Amazing, once was a gulf threat with some nice tropical rain to a safely OTS. Thanks Larry for staying on top of this lol.
 
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Fortunate...2 hurricanes, or soon to be, that's tucked in to the SE coast that will miss land. Guess Dorian clipped the OBX, but to miss plowing into SE coast seems fortunate.

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