Wintry Winter Storm Dec 7-10

[Brick Tamland]

The models keep showing a possible winter storm next week. Latest Euro is on board. Hoping to see the first snow this winter.

 

[Webberweather53]

I posted this on the other thread but might as well do it here...

 

[Webberweather53]

Certainly think it was a good call by you to make the thread more general for December 7-9. There's actually pair of frontal waves on this Euro run, the one it showed snow for is the 2nd in a pair that develop along this stalled boundary. The first one comes thru about day 4-5 bringing with it a cold rain to portions of central and eastern North & South Carolina. If the cold air comes in just a hair faster this system could also end up producing some wintry weather...

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Actually I've begun to wonder about this period a little. There's a wave that has been showing in this period for a while, but it's been a late bloomer. Maybe it can hold back a little and phase with that clipper...but if that ends up being a possibility it can't come too soon.

 

[Webberweather53]

Nearly half of the GFS Ensemble suite was picking up on this storm in some way, shape, or form so it has a shot esp being inside day 6-7.

 

[Weatherlover92]

FFC seems interested in this period...

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1206 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 644 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2017/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
A much colder airmass will impact the state behind the front, with
highs Thursday through Saturday only in the 40s across much of
the area. Through the week, the weather pattern remains dominated
by amplified upper level trough over the eastern U.S., with
several disturbances embedded in the flow. Models are advertising
one of these waves to impact north Georgia on Thursday
night/Friday morning, with enough moisture to possibly squeeze out
some wintry precip in the northern counties. As much as I hate to
introduce wintry precip at Day 6/7, forecast parameters are
pointing to the potential for mixed precip or light snow. Have
opted for rain or snow wording in the grids for now, with no
accumulations at this time. The 850 mb temperatures range between
-6C and -8C between the GFS and the ECMWF, with surface temps in
the 20s to low 30s, which would certainly support frozen precip.
Will continue to watch this closely.

31


&&

http://forecast.weather.gov/product...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

 

[Snowfan]

I’ll take e13 for the win.

 

[Webberweather53]

With some snow cover in place from the storm at day 6-7, temps fall into the lower teens single digits over east-central NC when the next shot of arctic air comes on the Euro.

 

[whatalife]

Can’t believe we may be chasing winter wx this early...


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[Jon]

I love seeing it don’t get me wrong, but cold chasing moisture doesn’t seem to work put well for us. Some take this argument as me saying it can’t happen - not saying that at all, just that it’s not ideal for the “snow” on the Euro snowfall maps.

This is the P-type that lays out widespread 10” on the Euro snowfall maps.

Like Eric said I’d like the cold in place a little earlier, otherwise we’ll get a lame mix event.


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[Brick Tamland]

I'll take a sloppy mix this early in the game. It'll be nice just to see some flakes falling already.

 

[WeatherWatch]

This is in the same time period that I think a LP system will develop in the GOM and track along the eastern seaboard. During the time of the late bloomer, there is that positive tilt trough over Mexico that could eventually become the GOM system.
Some people may have been confused with the late bloomer and of what I've been chatting about.

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[Webberweather53]

I love seeing it don’t get me wrong, but cold chasing moisture doesn’t seem to work put well for us. Some take this argument as me saying it can’t happen - not saying that at all, just that it’s not ideal for the “snow” on the Euro snowfall maps.

This is the P-type that lays out widespread 10” on the Euro snowfall maps.

Like Eric said I’d like the cold in place a little earlier, otherwise we’ll get a lame mix event.


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This is not a setup of cold chasing moisture, a pair frontal waves develop and intensify along a stalled frontal boundary off our coast and this is the 2nd frontal wave which spawns a weak coastal low that throws moisture back into the cold air. Definitely would categorize this as a Miller A setup rather than an Anafront. The threat that showed up on day 5 on earlier Euro runs was actually snow associated w/ the initial front itself, this is different

 

[Jon]

This is not a setup of cold chasing moisture, a pair frontal waves develop and intensify along a stalled frontal boundary off our coast and this is the 2nd frontal wave that throws moisture back into the cold air

Gotcha. Haven’t peaked at any vort maps, I stand corrected!


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[Webberweather53]

Gotcha. Haven’t peaked at any vort maps, I stand corrected!


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Even still I think your general point is entirely valid if this is a different setup! Miller As usually screw RDU over, either I-95 corridor or SE NC crush job, or piedmont gradient w/ the Triad and Roxboro taking the brunt and RDU getting fringed. It's hard to find a storm in the historical archives that blasts US 1. January 2002, January 2000, February 1967, & January 1933 are the few rare examples. Of course all 4 of these events occurred in a NINA-cold neutral event so there's a chance...

 

[Snowfan]

 

[whatalife]

Some are asking for the breakdown of the numbers so here they are...

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[Weatherlover92]

Just to put this as a disclaimer, I'm not trying to compare this potential setup exactly to January 28-29, 2014, but didn't that event also start off as a weak SLP developing along an arctic cold front? I know there's probably some much better examples of this, in fact I was wondering what other winter storms in the past 15-20 years have developed from a SLP along an arctic front.

 

[accu35]

Just to put this as a disclaimer, I'm not trying to compare this potential setup exactly to January 28-29, 2014, but didn't that event also start off as a weak SLP developing along an arctic cold front? I know there's probably some much better examples of this, in fact I was wondering what other winter storms in the past 15-20 years have developed from a SLP along an arctic front.

Usually hurricane season we get lows that form from a frontal right? Kinda of weird but good lol.

 

[Snowfan]

I’ll take e18 please.