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Pattern Winter severe thread

SD

SD

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Looks like the upcoming 10 days or so will support the threat of severe weather across the region. Obviously mesoscale factors aren't going to be ironed out this far but the overall setup would favor more than 1 threat. The roaring pac jet is what really gets my attention

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DustinWX said:
Which areas? Alabama/Miss westward?
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It'll be in the west initially but eventually the whole region will see some type of threat

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DustinWX said:
Which areas? Alabama/Miss westward?
Click to expand...
It'll be in the west initially but eventually the whole region will see some type of threat

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DustinWX said:
Which areas? Alabama/Miss westward?
Click to expand...
It'll be in the west initially but eventually the whole region will see some type of threat

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Models continue to show more than 1 severe threat over the coming 10 days or so but there are some timing differences.
 
As I stated yesterday I'm another thread if the models keep bringing these broad based troughs into warm moist airmasses someone is going to get rocked.
 
6z gfs and 0z cmc would point to a big threat days 9 and 10

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Yeah still many questions during this period the further east you go

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Tornado warning this morning near Houston with a threat of some severe storms in parts of Tn/MS/AR today. I think the bigger severe threat is lining up to be next weekend.
 
F-5 said:
SPC has parts of the area outlined on Day 6 (Saturday).
Click to expand...

Dang I didnt see that this morning 
gfs_uv250_us_26.png
 
Yeah , instability remains the wildcard as to how this is going to play out

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January Discussion

CAPE values Sun. 1am
eac40bfeb3adae6d070763ee1b6bdb77.jpg


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This is just a test post so I can see if I could see it right after I post it while still logged on.

Edit: test passed. I obviously can see it since I can edit it. So, the problem may be just with the January thread being too long???
 
GaWx said:
This is just a test post so I can see if I could see it right after I post it while still logged on.

Edit: test passed. I obviously can see it since I can edit it. So, the problem may be just with the January thread being too long???
Click to expand...

Ditto on getting it and it appearing when I click on "Last Post" - Let our Mod/Admin know in the Troubleshooting thread!
 
pcbjr said:
GaWx said:
This is just a test post so I can see if I could see it right after I post it while still logged on.

Edit: test passed. I obviously can see it since I can edit it. So, the problem may be just with the January thread being too long???
Click to expand...

Ditto on getting it and it appearing when I click on "Last Post" - Let our Mod/Admin know in the Troubleshooting thread!
Click to expand...
Started a new January thread. Hopefully that works. There is still a weird bug in the forum software we are looking at

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still am ugly looking weekend as far as the severe weather goes . still lots of questions as far as the coverage area . plenty of time watch . might need a specific thread by tomorrow

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Storm5 said:
still am ugly looking weekend as far as the severe weather goes . still lots of questions as far as the coverage area . plenty of time watch . might need a specific thread by tomorrow

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It's a messy setup if you believe the 18z gfs with the initial system Thursday into Friday potentially suppressing moisture. But the southerly flow with the second system later in the weekend still drives 60+ dewpoints well northward. With the late weekend system stacked to the west certainly will be some impressive soundings. I wonder if we see a cellular event go linear with both lows.

I agree about the specific thread. Can probably fire that up at any point imo
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getting very concerned for parts of the midsouth and Dixie... late this weekend... bulk shear is off the chart on the both gfs and euro... euro tad more south with slp... and instability at all... bomb goes off
 
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