Storm5
Member
Early winter, early spring?
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Pattern Winter Discussion
- Thread starter Storm5
- Start date
NCSNOW
Member
for my neck of the woods , Early Winter if going off met winter calendar. Think Dec has a good chance to avg -2 in the temp dept. Not confident in moisture or storm tracks so winter precip is another story. Think NS dominates this winter and the upslope regions do pretty good and my neck of the woods lucks up with lot of novelity cad events(mix) way moreso than a miller A pure snow event. We'll see, think Jan and early Feb averages out normal in the temp dept and spring comes on mid Feb onward.
As opposed to a major SN, the biggest threat to ATL/much of N GA this winter is a major ZR &/or IP as we're pretty much in a neutral negative ENSO (likely to verify just too warm for an official very weak Nina, which requires 5 trimonthlies in a row of -0.5 C or colder anoms). Neutral negative has by far had the most major ZR's/IP's in ATL, ~50% of them! 50% is very high when you consider that the frequency of other ENSO winters having a major ZR or IP there was only about 1 in 6. So, having a neutral negative ups the chances for a major ZR/IP there by ~three times over the chance for all other ENSO combined. The largest concentration of major ZR's there has occurred between late Dec. and early Feb. although the range has been from mid-Dec.to late March!
For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.
Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:
When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.
When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:
When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.
When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
GaWx link said:
Thanks for the stats GaWx. Let's get a cold Dec and then see what Jan has in store. Looks promising.
dsaur
Member
Any correlation with Feb, Larry? I.e., an actual colder winter in general. I'd almost rather have normal all the way to the end of March, than a cold Dec/Jan, then sudden spring onset, lol. At least one of my winters in the last 16 had a very cold late Nov/ Dec, and that was it for winter...don't need that....... And some good rains, I be happy with that, and take my chances with the cold air. Can't live without rain, and snow/sleet in Ga is kind of rare, in that it rarely happens all over, lol. But when it rains, it's usually all over, and most everybody wins..funny how that worksGaWx link said:
Any correlation with Feb, Larry? I.e., an actual colder winter in general. I'd almost rather have normal all the way to the end of March, than a cold Dec/Jan, then sudden spring onset, lol. At least one of my winters in the last 16 had a very cold late Nov/ Dec, and that was it for winter...don't need that....... And some good rains, I be happy with that, and take my chances with the cold air. Can't live without rain, and snow/sleet in Ga is kind of rare, in that it rarely happens all over, lol. But when it rains, it's usually all over, and most everybody wins..funny how that worksDsaur link said:
[/quote]
Hey Tony,
Welcome to the BB, Mr. Sleet! I haven't analyzed Feb. yet though I may later. I suspect there's some but less correlation and it may be pretty small.
dsaur
Member
While you're at it Mr. Abacus, please tell me how I went from two and a half months with out a single drop to 4 1/2 inches when it started raining again. There has got to be a trigger for this. Oct 18th it rains over 3 inches, and didn't rain again until the other day when it rain 2 inches, followed by 2 1/2 more. Something turned it off, and then back on. It's either a misplaced velocity whrowl, or it's those Harrp derainalizers on the Alabama border. Think about it..it's too linear to be natural. On, then off, then on again. This can't be explained with, 'well, it stopped raining, and then later it started raining again". See what I'm saying Larry? It's suspicious..there's got to be a trigger to dump that much rain, then nothing for months, and boom, have another heaping helping. I think there's a pod of whales that lingered way past normal out in the Pac. or some hidden volcano way out there with lots of sulfides but very little smoke....you know, some trigger
Oh, and thanks for the greets T
Oh, and thanks for the greets
TYeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know. Might your moles somehow have something to do with this?
One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
Might your moles somehow have something to do with this?One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
dsaur
Member
Hey, Shawn, good to see you!! Hope this is the winter SC sees something other than hot and dry If it comes thru me, it'll get to you, so here's hoping I get that elusive north central sled enabler Turns out I miscalculated my additions and I got over 5 inches of rain since it started back. Did the drought get you too? And how much did the turning on of the flow bring you? Tony
If it comes thru me, it'll get to you, so here's hoping I get that elusive north central sled enabler Turns out I miscalculated my additions and I got over 5 inches of rain since it started back. Did the drought get you too? And how much did the turning on of the flow bring you? Tony
dsaur
Member
Yep, it's truly weird, Larry. Rain dump, drought, rain dump. It's not like I often get 5.1 in a few days, lol. The 18 inches in 2 weeks in Dec was what started this anomalous string of anomalys, lol. And I ask you, why can't I ever get 18 inches of sleet, or snow over a two week period? It's not like it's physically impossible....well, 18 inches of sleet might be rare, lol. Hard to imagine the contortions the atmosphere would have to make for 18 inches of sleet, lol. The Goldielocks effect gone mole crazyGaWx link said:Yeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know.
One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
Just right, for days and days. Wow, that just made my list of things I'd like to see before I shuffle off this mortal coil. T
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yep, it's truly weird, Larry. Rain dump, drought, rain dump. It's not like I often get 5.1 in a few days, lol. The 18 inches in 2 weeks in Dec was what started this anomalous string of anomalys, lol. And I ask you, why can't I ever get 18 inches of sleet, or snow over a two week period? It's not like it's physically impossible....well, 18 inches of sleet might be rare, lol. Hard to imagine the contortions the atmosphere would have to make for 18 inches of sleet, lol. The Goldielocks effect gone mole crazyDsaur link said:[quote author=GaWx link=topic=3.msg400#msg400 date=1481079784]
Yeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know.
One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
Just right, for days and days. Wow, that just made my list of things I'd like to see before I shuffle off this mortal coil. T[/quote]
If it isn't the ole sleet man himself. Good to see you buddy. Better get the moles working on digging us up a winter storm...
dsaur
Member
Hey, Cad Good to see you! Counting on you to provide your name sake for us all. Well, I'm not sure Shawn gets cad, but he should. When I was in Columbia in the late 60's there was a huge snow storm, and I was driving down to Atl from Columbia, and started out in sleet in Columbia, pretty good sleet, and there was a good 6 inches of snow by the time I got to Greenville, and pouring snow.... and it stopped just past the Welcome station going in toward Atl. Nothing for Atl but some dust. Coming back was a hoot because it froze down solid. I was in a 50's Volkswagon and it just laughed at snow and ice. What a great weekend that was down and back on a deserted Interstate. I could drive with my lights off it was so bright. They'd closed the road, and I had to find an access road south of Greenville. I forgot to put that in my favorite list, lol. But I digress, lol...please, sir, get us some cad!! And another storm like that. I have snow tires now..some with studs. The older you get the more you want to be sure not to miss out on taking in all of the good ones. They don't happen often enough to take them for granted. Got to be able to get to the good hills, lol. T
Good to see you! Counting on you to provide your name sake for us all. Well, I'm not sure Shawn gets cad, but he should. When I was in Columbia in the late 60's there was a huge snow storm, and I was driving down to Atl from Columbia, and started out in sleet in Columbia, pretty good sleet, and there was a good 6 inches of snow by the time I got to Greenville, and pouring snow.... and it stopped just past the Welcome station going in toward Atl. Nothing for Atl but some dust. Coming back was a hoot because it froze down solid. I was in a 50's Volkswagon and it just laughed at snow and ice. What a great weekend that was down and back on a deserted Interstate. I could drive with my lights off it was so bright. They'd closed the road, and I had to find an access road south of Greenville. I forgot to put that in my favorite list, lol. But I digress, lol...please, sir, get us some cad!! And another storm like that. I have snow tires now..some with studs. The older you get the more you want to be sure not to miss out on taking in all of the good ones. They don't happen often enough to take them for granted. Got to be able to get to the good hills, lol. T
Dsaur link said:Hey, Shawn, good to see you!! Hope this is the winter SC sees something other than hot and dry
It was pretty dry around here for a while. Garden died, couldn't keep it watered enough.
Finally got 2 or three inches of rain within the last little bit, but still dry though.
Just keep that ice storm away, I don't want to be scared of pine tree limbs coming through my roof like gun shots in the dark and cold.
dsaur
Member
I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry. I'll always take too wet over too dry If it turns to ice I'll deal with it...I've cut down all the pines that can make the house, so I don't cringe as much..until one of those oaks near the house cracks a big limb... but if it's going be real cold at times, that lets sleet in the mix, and snow. Meteostar had me with some pretty good minus numbers out in lala. I'd love to see some of those actually happen. Haven't seen a bitter cold Christmas in a while. 12 or 16 on Christmas eve would be different, lol. Does it a lot at New Years Eve, but usually not Xmas. It's fighting climo, I guess. T
If it turns to ice I'll deal with it...I've cut down all the pines that can make the house, so I don't cringe as much..until one of those oaks near the house cracks a big limb... but if it's going be real cold at times, that lets sleet in the mix, and snow. Meteostar had me with some pretty good minus numbers out in lala. I'd love to see some of those actually happen. Haven't seen a bitter cold Christmas in a while. 12 or 16 on Christmas eve would be different, lol. Does it a lot at New Years Eve, but usually not Xmas. It's fighting climo, I guess. T
Dsaur link said:I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry. I'll always take too wet over too dry
I'd be ecstatic if we could get a nice little snow starting on Christmas Eve with temps 20-25 degrees. I just can't recall anytime in my life that it snows here that cold, or at least starts that way. Usually we are just above freezing and the melting flakes cool it down on the surface and we see a changeover. It really would be nice to not have to worry about temperatures for a change.
Starburst link said:[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=3.msg702#msg702 date=1481229090]
I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry. I'll always take too wet over too dry
I'd be ecstatic if we could get a nice little snow starting on Christmas Eve with temps 20-25 degrees. I just can't recall anytime in my life that it snows here that cold, or at least starts that way. Usually we are just above freezing and the melting flakes cool it down on the surface and we see a changeover. It really would be nice to not have to worry about temperatures for a change.
[/quote] Remember the January 2014 snowstorm where it was 20 degrees and snowing the whole time ?
dsaur
Member
I'd be ecstatic if we could get a nice little snow starting on Christmas Eve with temps 20-25 degrees. I just can't recall anytime in my life that it snows here that cold, or at least starts that way. Usually we are just above freezing and the melting flakes cool it down on the surface and we see a changeover. It really would be nice to not have to worry about temperatures for a change.
[/quote]
That's why I love a reinforcing high. Funneling in that extra cold stuff, although that can lead the zmonster in too, if the second high isn't cold enough. That was what made that 80's storm that shut down Atlanta's in town thruways so good/ bad. It stayed super cold while a gom low was working up. Everything froze instantly at mid day. Perfecto!! Just doesn't happen enough...down here it's always on the edge, it seems. In that space where patterns change. What I hate is we often get the best snows in Spring, when the ground just melts it as fast as it falls. Six, seven, eight inches onto warm ground...it's heartbreaking while being beautiful, lol.
[/quote]
That's why I love a reinforcing high. Funneling in that extra cold stuff, although that can lead the zmonster in too, if the second high isn't cold enough. That was what made that 80's storm that shut down Atlanta's in town thruways so good/ bad. It stayed super cold while a gom low was working up. Everything froze instantly at mid day. Perfecto!! Just doesn't happen enough...down here it's always on the edge, it seems. In that space where patterns change. What I hate is we often get the best snows in Spring, when the ground just melts it as fast as it falls. Six, seven, eight inches onto warm ground...it's heartbreaking while being beautiful, lol.
ATL over the last hundred years has averaged only 0.3" of SN/IP in Dec (0.1" 1st half and 0.2" 2nd half). That is only ~15% of its average seasonal total of ~2". Only 18 of the last 100 ATL Decembers have had measurable SN/IP. In contrast, 0.8" has fallen on average in Jan over the last 100 years with 45 of them having had measurable. In Feb, 0.4" avg/30 of them had measurable. Mar: 0.4" avg/15 of them. Note that most of this is based on the airport, which is south of town. A few of the years are based on downtown. The northside is obviously higher in freq/amts though I have no hard stats. My guess would be that the northside gets ~3"/year on avg. Regardless, this gives one the idea about Dec being relatively quiet.
Aside: Back in the late 1800's/early 1900's, Feb was a big SN/IP month with close to 1.5"/month!! Jan was near 1.4". Dec was near 0.7". (Mar was only near 0.1".). So, seasonal SN/IP was ~3.8" or about double the subsequent 100 years' rate! One reason: it was colder then on average, esp. in Feb. Also, the station was in the city, not south of town.
Looking at history, ZR's don't pick up there too much in frequency til the last week of Dec. I will reiterate that due to us being in neutral negative ENSO that this winter's chances for a major ZR or IP are ~50%, which is about 3 times the chance for other winters. Most major ZR's there have occurred between late Dec and early Feb.
Aside: Back in the late 1800's/early 1900's, Feb was a big SN/IP month with close to 1.5"/month!! Jan was near 1.4". Dec was near 0.7". (Mar was only near 0.1".). So, seasonal SN/IP was ~3.8" or about double the subsequent 100 years' rate! One reason: it was colder then on average, esp. in Feb. Also, the station was in the city, not south of town.
Looking at history, ZR's don't pick up there too much in frequency til the last week of Dec. I will reiterate that due to us being in neutral negative ENSO that this winter's chances for a major ZR or IP are ~50%, which is about 3 times the chance for other winters. Most major ZR's there have occurred between late Dec and early Feb.
With the consensus showing for the SE US near normal when averaging days 1-10 (warmer more SE, cooler more NW), and warmer than normal 11-15 all despite much colder much of the country to our NW including the MW, the current projections for Dec as a whole reflect a SE ridge pattern with warmest relative to normal there vs most of the rest of the country with above normal most likely nearer to the coast and near normal further NW in the SE. I looked at Dec's with a similar pattern and found these 9 with ENSO noted:
Here's how the nine averaged for Dec.: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.344.13.47.44.prcp.png
1897 (WLN), 1916 (SLN), 1919 (WEN), 1924 (WLN), 1926 (NP), 1961 (NN), 1983 (WLN), 2008 (WLN), 2013 (NN)
So, interestingly enough, an impressive 6 of these 9 (bolded) were near our current ENSO (NN/WLN). I'll concentrate on those 6. How were those 6 for the rest of winter?
Temp's:
Jan: 1898 was mild; 1925 was near normal to mild; 2009 was near normal; 1962, 1984, and 2014 were cold...so a crapshoot
Feb: 1925 and 1962 were mild; 1984, 2009, and 2014 were near normal; 1898 was cold..again a crapshoot
So, for Jan-Feb: 1925 remained mild while 1984/2014 didn't have another mild month. 1962 & 1898 were on a rollercoaster. 2009 was near normal. So, a crapshoot!
Wintry precip at ATL for these 6:
Dec: 1961 had 1" SN. No other Dec had sig wintry precip.
Jan: 1898 had 0.8" SN. 1962 was a great month with a 3.5" SN followed by a major ZR (yes, it was neutral negative ENSO) just 10 days later! 2014 had the memorable snowjam from 2.6" of SN. The other three had no measurable. Overall though, the 6 Jan's averaged more wintry than average with 1.15" of SN & a major ZR. Two of the three cold Jan's were well above the average of wintry precip.
Feb.: 1984 had 1.3" of SN. 2014 had a major ZR on the south and east sides (yes, during the other NN ENSO) with 2" of IP/SN though 3"+ was measured on the northside. The other 4 had no measurable though the 6 Feb.'s averaged more wintry than normal.
Mar: 2009 had a 4.2" SN. Though the other 5 had no sig wintry, the 6 averaged 0.7", which is nearly double the longterm avg.
Dec-Mar (normal SN/IP is 2"): 1897-8 had 0.8" SN (below normal). 1924-5 had 0". 1961-2 was a banner season with 4.5" of SN & a major ZR. 1983-4 had 1.3" of SN (not terrible but below normal). 2008-9 had 4.2" of SN, making it well above normal. 2013-4 was the other banner year with 4.6" of SN/IP & a major ZR. So, the two NN ENSO's were the two banner winters for ZR/IP. Coincidence? I don't know.
So, of the 6, only one was a shutout. Two had below normal SN. But three had well above normal SN/IP and 2 of those 3 also had a major ZR. The 6 averaged 2.6" of SN/IP (vs normal of 2") with 1/3 of them having a major ZR (vs 1 every 4.5 years). So, overall good enough stats to at least give ATL and much of the SE US hope.
Here's how the nine averaged for Dec.: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/tmp/climdiv/cd73.182.20.43.344.13.47.44.prcp.png
1897 (WLN), 1916 (SLN), 1919 (WEN), 1924 (WLN), 1926 (NP), 1961 (NN), 1983 (WLN), 2008 (WLN), 2013 (NN)
So, interestingly enough, an impressive 6 of these 9 (bolded) were near our current ENSO (NN/WLN). I'll concentrate on those 6. How were those 6 for the rest of winter?
Temp's:
Jan: 1898 was mild; 1925 was near normal to mild; 2009 was near normal; 1962, 1984, and 2014 were cold...so a crapshoot
Feb: 1925 and 1962 were mild; 1984, 2009, and 2014 were near normal; 1898 was cold..again a crapshoot
So, for Jan-Feb: 1925 remained mild while 1984/2014 didn't have another mild month. 1962 & 1898 were on a rollercoaster. 2009 was near normal. So, a crapshoot!
Wintry precip at ATL for these 6:
Dec: 1961 had 1" SN. No other Dec had sig wintry precip.
Jan: 1898 had 0.8" SN. 1962 was a great month with a 3.5" SN followed by a major ZR (yes, it was neutral negative ENSO) just 10 days later! 2014 had the memorable snowjam from 2.6" of SN. The other three had no measurable. Overall though, the 6 Jan's averaged more wintry than average with 1.15" of SN & a major ZR. Two of the three cold Jan's were well above the average of wintry precip.
Feb.: 1984 had 1.3" of SN. 2014 had a major ZR on the south and east sides (yes, during the other NN ENSO) with 2" of IP/SN though 3"+ was measured on the northside. The other 4 had no measurable though the 6 Feb.'s averaged more wintry than normal.
Mar: 2009 had a 4.2" SN. Though the other 5 had no sig wintry, the 6 averaged 0.7", which is nearly double the longterm avg.
Dec-Mar (normal SN/IP is 2"): 1897-8 had 0.8" SN (below normal). 1924-5 had 0". 1961-2 was a banner season with 4.5" of SN & a major ZR. 1983-4 had 1.3" of SN (not terrible but below normal). 2008-9 had 4.2" of SN, making it well above normal. 2013-4 was the other banner year with 4.6" of SN/IP & a major ZR. So, the two NN ENSO's were the two banner winters for ZR/IP. Coincidence? I don't know.
So, of the 6, only one was a shutout. Two had below normal SN. But three had well above normal SN/IP and 2 of those 3 also had a major ZR. The 6 averaged 2.6" of SN/IP (vs normal of 2") with 1/3 of them having a major ZR (vs 1 every 4.5 years). So, overall good enough stats to at least give ATL and much of the SE US hope.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Dsaur link said:
That's why I love a reinforcing high. Funneling in that extra cold stuff, although that can lead the zmonster in too, if the second high isn't cold enough. That was what made that 80's storm that shut down Atlanta's in town thruways so good/ bad. It stayed super cold while a gom low was working up. Everything froze instantly at mid day. Perfecto!! Just doesn't happen enough...down here it's always on the edge, it seems. In that space where patterns change. What I hate is we often get the best snows in Spring, when the ground just melts it as fast as it falls. Six, seven, eight inches onto warm ground...it's heartbreaking while being beautiful, lol.
[/quote]Remember the white Christmas of 2010?
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Larry, have you found any correlation with years that have had major at in the N GA area? (2001,2005,2015,etc)GaWx link said:
Larry, have you found any correlation with years that have had major at in the N GA area? (2001,2005,2015,etc)GainesvilleWX link said:
[/quote]
Dustin,
I haven't done an analysis of major ZR well N/NE of ATL though many of these major ATL ZR's likely extended NE to Gainesville and east to Athens.
W
WeatherLC
Guest
Welcome. Glad you are here.Rain Cold link said:
GaWx link said:
Well, per progs as well as actuals for 12/1-25, it looks like Atlanta will end up with near 48-49 for December. Based on winters since 1950, that means that the odds of a 42 or colder Atlanta January are low for 2017. Normal there is 43. However, low chance doesn't mean no chance and I still am hoping for a 2013-4 type of sudden change. That winter had a mild Dec (48 F, which means December of 2016 will be very close) due to dominating SE ridge but then a quite cold January including significant wintry precip as the SE ridge gave way. The longterm based odds are against this though and, therefore, I can't bet on it. But I will continue to hope for it based on the strong similarities to Dec of 2016: mild temperatures in SE due to ridge, much colder in the Midwest, strong +AO, and neutral negative ENSO.
I don't know if the Atlanta area is going to get a ZR and/or IP out of the mess ~1/6-10 but I continue to think they have a much above average chance for one sometime this winter because we're in a neutral negative (NN) ENSO. I counted a total of 36 ATL major ZR and/or IP. It is very impressive that half of these (18) were during NN ENSO, alone, when one considers that NN have occurred only about 1 every 5 years. I counted 28 NN's. Of these 28, 16 (57%) had at least one major ZR and/or IP. In contrast regarding the other 109 winters, only 15 (14%) had at least one major ZR and/or IP. So, the % of NN winters with a major ZR and/or IP is a whopping four times as high as those for non-NN winters!
Dates of 18 ATL major ZR and/or IP during NN ENSO:
12/11-3
12/14-5
12/24-5
12/25
1/13-4
1/17-8
1/18-9
1/21
1/23
1/30
1/30-1
2/6-7
2/9-11
2/12
2/14-5
2/17-8
3/2
3/9
Dates of 18 ATL major ZR and/or IP during NN ENSO:
12/11-3
12/14-5
12/24-5
12/25
1/13-4
1/17-8
1/18-9
1/21
1/23
1/30
1/30-1
2/6-7
2/9-11
2/12
2/14-5
2/17-8
3/2
3/9
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Looks like I missed out on the 12z GFS fun. Geez that's a classic southern winter storm there but its kind of in lala land.
GaWx link said:
Based on the above, I think it is pretty clear that betting on a cold January right now would be going out on a limb at this stage despite some pretty strong cold that appears to be on the way for late week and into the weekend. However, that doesn't mean we should give up on that chance and even a near normal January, which would still be possible, can easily allow for a big SE wintry event. For that matter, even a warm January could allow for it.