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Pattern Winter Discussion

for my neck of the woods , Early Winter if going off met winter calendar. Think Dec has a good chance to avg -2 in the temp dept. Not confident in moisture or storm tracks so winter precip is another story. Think NS dominates this winter and the upslope regions do pretty good and my neck of the woods lucks up with lot of novelity cad events(mix) way moreso than a miller A pure snow event. We'll see, think Jan and early Feb averages out normal in the temp dept and spring comes on mid Feb onward.
 
As opposed to a major SN, the biggest threat to ATL/much of N GA this winter is a major ZR &/or IP as we're pretty much in a neutral negative ENSO (likely to verify just too warm for an official very weak Nina, which requires 5 trimonthlies in a row of -0.5 C or colder anoms). Neutral negative has by far had the most major ZR's/IP's in ATL, ~50% of them! 50% is very high when you consider that the frequency of other ENSO winters having a major ZR or IP there was only about 1 in 6. So, having a neutral negative ups the chances for a major ZR/IP there by ~three times over the chance for all other ENSO combined. The largest concentration of major ZR's there has occurred between late Dec. and early Feb. although the range has been from mid-Dec.to late March!
 
For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.

Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.

When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
 
GaWx link said:
For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.

Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.

When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the stats GaWx. Let's get a cold Dec and then see what Jan has in store. Looks promising.
 
GaWx link said:
For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.

Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.

When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Click to expand...
  Any correlation with Feb, Larry?  I.e., an actual colder winter in general. I'd almost rather have normal all the way to the end of March, than a cold Dec/Jan, then sudden spring onset, lol.  At least one of my winters in the last 16 had a very cold late Nov/ Dec, and that was it for winter...don't need that....... And some good rains,  I be happy with that, and take my chances with the cold air.  Can't live without rain, and snow/sleet in Ga is kind of rare, in that it rarely happens all over, lol.  But when it rains, it's usually all over, and most everybody wins..funny how that works :)
 
Dsaur link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=3.msg133#msg133 date=1480795352]
For those hoping for a cold SE US Jan., it is better that Dec. be cold than warm because there is a decent correlation between Dec temps and Jan temps.

Looking at ATL since 1950 as a proxy for the SE as a whole:

When Dec was 42 or colder (3.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 10 out of 14 times.
When Dec was 40 or colder (5.5 or more colder than normal), Jan was 42 or colder 6 out of 7 times.

When Dec was 49 or warmer (3.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 2 out of 15 times.
When Dec was 51 or warmer (5.5 or more warmer than normal), Jan was 42 or colder only 1 out of 5 times.
Click to expand...
  Any correlation with Feb, Larry?  I.e., an actual colder winter in general. I'd almost rather have normal all the way to the end of March, than a cold Dec/Jan, then sudden spring onset, lol.  At least one of my winters in the last 16 had a very cold late Nov/ Dec, and that was it for winter...don't need that....... And some good rains,  I be happy with that, and take my chances with the cold air.  Can't live without rain, and snow/sleet in Ga is kind of rare, in that it rarely happens all over, lol.  But when it rains, it's usually all over, and most everybody wins..funny how that works :)
[/quote]

Hey Tony,
Welcome to the BB, Mr. Sleet! I haven't analyzed Feb. yet though I may later. I suspect there's some but less correlation and it may be pretty small.
 
While you're at it Mr. Abacus, please tell me how I went from two and a half months with out a single drop to 4 1/2 inches when it started raining again.  There has got to be a trigger for this. Oct 18th it rains over 3 inches, and didn't rain again until the other day when it rain 2 inches, followed by 2 1/2 more.  Something turned it off, and then back on.  It's either a misplaced velocity whrowl, or it's those Harrp derainalizers on the Alabama border. Think about it..it's too linear to be natural. On, then off, then on again.  This can't be explained with, 'well, it stopped raining, and then later it started raining again".  See what I'm saying Larry?  It's suspicious..there's got to be a trigger to dump that much rain, then nothing for months, and boom, have another heaping helping.  I think there's a pod of whales that lingered way past normal out in the Pac. or some hidden volcano way out there with lots of sulfides but very little smoke....you know, some trigger :)
  Oh, and thanks for the greets :)  T
 
Yeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know. ;) Might your moles somehow have something to do with this?

One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
 
Well powder me with sugar and call me a Doughnut!  Hey Tony!  This is Shawn from the other boards.
 
Hey, Shawn, good to see you!!  Hope this is the winter SC sees something other than hot and dry :)  If it comes thru me, it'll get to you, so here's hoping I get that elusive north central sled  enabler :)  Turns out I miscalculated my additions and I got over 5 inches of rain since it started back.  Did the drought get you too?  And how much did the turning on of the flow bring  you?  Tony
 
GaWx link said:
Yeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know. ;) Might your moles somehow have something to do with this?

One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
Click to expand...
  Yep, it's truly weird, Larry.  Rain dump, drought, rain dump.  It's not like I often get 5.1 in a few days, lol.  The 18 inches in 2 weeks in Dec was what started this anomalous string of anomalys, lol.  And  I ask you, why can't I ever get 18 inches of sleet, or snow over a two week period?  It's not like it's physically impossible....well, 18 inches of sleet might be rare, lol.  Hard to imagine the contortions the atmosphere would have to make for 18 inches of sleet, lol.  The Goldielocks effect gone mole crazy :)  Just right, for days and days.  Wow, that just made my list of things I'd like to see before I shuffle off this mortal coil.  T
 
Dsaur link said:
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=3.msg400#msg400 date=1481079784]
Yeah, Tony, sometimes wx works in mysterious ways. That's my way of saying I don't know. ;) Might your moles somehow have something to do with this?

One thing I'll note is that the dry spell was during a climo relative dry part of the year. It really doesn't like to rain much in Oct in ATL outside of the rare Oct tropical cyclone big influence as you must know. Outside of El Nino, it doesn't typically rain much in Nov in ATL.
Click to expand...
  Yep, it's truly weird, Larry.  Rain dump, drought, rain dump.  It's not like I often get 5.1 in a few days, lol.  The 18 inches in 2 weeks in Dec was what started this anomalous string of anomalys, lol.  And  I ask you, why can't I ever get 18 inches of sleet, or snow over a two week period?  It's not like it's physically impossible....well, 18 inches of sleet might be rare, lol.  Hard to imagine the contortions the atmosphere would have to make for 18 inches of sleet, lol.  The Goldielocks effect gone mole crazy :)  Just right, for days and days.  Wow, that just made my list of things I'd like to see before I shuffle off this mortal coil.  T
[/quote]
If it isn't the ole sleet man himself. Good to see you buddy. Better get the moles working on digging us up a winter storm...
 
Hey, Cad :) Good to see you!  Counting on you to provide your name sake for us all.  Well, I'm not sure Shawn gets cad, but he should.  When I was in Columbia in the late 60's there was a huge snow storm, and I was driving down to Atl from Columbia, and started out in sleet in Columbia, pretty good sleet, and there was a good 6 inches of snow by the time I got to Greenville, and pouring snow.... and it stopped just past the Welcome station going in toward Atl. Nothing for Atl but some dust.  Coming back was a hoot because it froze down solid.  I was in a 50's Volkswagon and it just laughed at snow and ice.  What a great weekend that was down and back on a deserted Interstate.  I could drive with my lights off it was so bright.  They'd closed the road, and I had to find an access road south of Greenville.  I forgot to put that in my favorite list, lol.  But I digress, lol...please, sir, get us some cad!! And another storm like that.  I have snow tires now..some with studs.  The older you get the more you want to be sure not to miss out on taking in all of the good ones.  They don't happen often enough to take them for granted.  Got to be able to get to the good hills, lol.  T
 
Dsaur link said:
Hey, Shawn, good to see you!!  Hope this is the winter SC sees something other than hot and dry :)  If it comes thru me, it'll get to you, so here's hoping I get that elusive north central sled  enabler :)  Turns out I miscalculated my additions and I got over 5 inches of rain since it started back.  Did the drought get you too?  And how much did the turning on of the flow bring  you?  Tony
Click to expand...

It was pretty dry around here for a while.  Garden died, couldn't keep it watered enough. :(
Finally got 2 or three inches of rain within the last little bit, but still dry though.
Just keep that ice storm away, I don't want to be scared of pine tree limbs coming through my roof like gun shots in the dark and cold.
 
I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry.  I'll always take too wet over too dry :)  If it turns to ice I'll deal with it...I've cut down all the pines that can make the house, so I don't cringe as much..until one of those oaks near the house cracks a big limb... but if it's going be real cold at times, that lets sleet in the mix, and snow.  Meteostar had me with some pretty good minus numbers out in lala.  I'd love to see some of those actually happen.  Haven't seen a bitter cold Christmas in a while.  12 or 16 on Christmas eve would be different, lol.  Does it a lot at New Years Eve, but usually not Xmas. It's fighting climo, I guess.  T
 
Dsaur link said:
I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry.  I'll always take too wet over too dry :)  If it turns to ice I'll deal with it...I've cut down all the pines that can make the house, so I don't cringe as much..until one of those oaks near the house cracks a big limb... but if it's going be real cold at times, that lets sleet in the mix, and snow.  Meteostar had me with some pretty good minus numbers out in lala.  I'd love to see some of those actually happen.  Haven't seen a bitter cold Christmas in a while.  12 or 16 on Christmas eve would be different, lol.  Does it a lot at New Years Eve, but usually not Xmas. It's fighting climo, I guess.  T
Click to expand...

I'd be ecstatic if we could get a nice little snow starting on Christmas Eve with temps 20-25 degrees.  I just can't recall anytime in my life that it snows here that cold, or at least starts that way.  Usually we are just above freezing and the melting flakes cool it down on the surface and we see a changeover.  It really would be nice to not have to worry about temperatures for a change.
 
Starburst link said:
[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=3.msg702#msg702 date=1481229090]
I just hope it rains all winter, I'm tired of dry.  I'll always take too wet over too dry :)  If it turns to ice I'll deal with it...I've cut down all the pines that can make the house, so I don't cringe as much..until one of those oaks near the house cracks a big limb... but if it's going be real cold at times, that lets sleet in the mix, and snow.  Meteostar had me with some pretty good minus numbers out in lala.  I'd love to see some of those actually happen.  Haven't seen a bitter cold Christmas in a while.  12 or 16 on Christmas eve would be different, lol.  Does it a lot at New Years Eve, but usually not Xmas. It's fighting climo, I guess.  T
Click to expand...

I'd be ecstatic if we could get a nice little snow starting on Christmas Eve with temps 20-25 degrees.  I just can't recall anytime in my life that it snows here that cold, or at least starts that way.  Usually we are just above freezing and the melting flakes cool it down on the surface and we see a changeover.  It really would be nice to not have to worry about temperatures for a change.
[/quote] Remember the January 2014 snowstorm where it was 20 degrees and snowing the whole time ?
 
I'd be ecstatic if we could get a nice little snow starting on Christmas Eve with temps 20-25 degrees.  I just can't recall anytime in my life that it snows here that cold, or at least starts that way.  Usually we are just above freezing and the melting flakes cool it down on the surface and we see a changeover.  It really would be nice to not have to worry about temperatures for a change.
[/quote]

That's why I love a reinforcing high.  Funneling in that extra cold stuff, although that can lead the zmonster in too, if the second high isn't cold enough.  That was what made that 80's storm that shut down Atlanta's in town thruways so good/ bad.  It stayed super cold while a gom low was working up. Everything froze instantly at mid day.  Perfecto!! Just doesn't happen enough...down here it's always on the edge, it seems. In that space where patterns change.  What I hate is we often get the best snows in Spring, when the ground just melts it as fast as it falls.  Six, seven, eight inches onto warm ground...it's heartbreaking while being beautiful, lol.
 
ATL over the last hundred years has averaged only 0.3" of SN/IP in Dec (0.1" 1st half and 0.2" 2nd half). That is only ~15% of its average seasonal total of ~2". Only 18 of the last 100 ATL Decembers have had measurable SN/IP. In contrast, 0.8" has fallen on average in Jan over the last 100 years with 45 of them having had measurable. In Feb, 0.4" avg/30 of them had measurable. Mar: 0.4" avg/15 of them. Note that most of this is based on the airport, which is south of town. A few of the years are based on downtown. The northside is obviously higher in freq/amts though I have no hard stats. My guess would be that the northside gets ~3"/year on avg. Regardless, this gives one the idea about Dec being relatively quiet.

Aside: Back in the late 1800's/early 1900's, Feb was a big SN/IP month with close to 1.5"/month!! Jan was near 1.4". Dec was near 0.7". (Mar was only near 0.1".). So, seasonal SN/IP was ~3.8" or about double the subsequent 100 years' rate! One reason: it was colder then on average, esp. in Feb. Also, the station was in the city, not south of town.

  Looking at history, ZR's don't pick up there too much in frequency til the last week of Dec. I will reiterate that due to us being in neutral negative ENSO that this winter's chances for a major ZR or IP are ~50%, which is about 3 times the chance for other winters. Most major ZR's there have occurred between late Dec and early Feb.
 
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