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Wintry Winter 26-27

Looking at only very strong Ninos:

QBO table goes back only to the 1957-8 very strong Nino:

+QBO dominating DJF like it almost definitely will in 2026-7: 2015-6, 1982-3, 1957-8
-PDO DJF average <0:
- only 1972-3 and that averaged only barely -PDO (-0.1)…I classify that as neutral;
-1965-6 averaged barely +, which I adding count as neutral
Its not many for sure with a really good match for this winter
 
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Here’s the Oct run of the Euro seasonal snowfall for the SE (DEC-FEB) thanks to severe wx Europe for the graphs.


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My friend in Montana had 10 inches of snow while we were having tornadoes last weekend. However, looks like the southeast could have more snow than them this winter if the outlook is right
 
Oh Lawd, Brent gone be saving receipts for this one

Haha. I wish I liked the analogs but none are that great here. Though I do like the idea it'll be wet but last time that didn't help us either

Oh well I got a backup plan to go into the mountains west of Denver if I have to at the end of the winter. I don't really want it to come to that and not even sure I will go but I'm not gonna sit here and wait til it's too late to do anything about it either
 
Haha. I wish I liked the analogs but none are that great here. Though I do like the idea it'll be wet but last time that didn't help us either

Oh well I got a backup plan to go into the mountains west of Denver if I have to at the end of the winter. I don't really want it to come to that and not even sure I will go but I'm not gonna sit here and wait til it's too late to do anything about it either
Go see the giant Sequoias in the Sierra Nevadas, after this winter they will probably have snow on the higher trails around 10,00 ft until July.
 
Go see the giant Sequoias in the Sierra Nevadas, after this winter they will probably have snow on the higher trails around 10,00 ft until July.

That's interesting but I went to Tahoe once and it didn't even really snow haha. Went to Breckenridge in early December 2 years ago and it was like the middle of winter and snowed the entire 4 days... Half the stuff wasn't even open yet because it was so early in the year and yet they had snow covered everything even in the city. It was weird

Like I said I don't even know if I'm gonna go it's more just if I really get annoyed haha. I already have like no expectations for this winter honestly how can I get annoyed maybe unless we like barely miss out or something

Or the snow hole from 23-24... Horrible memories
 
Yuck, I wore shorts and a tank top on Christmas that year

Oh we had the warmest Christmas on record last year and I don't think I can do it again. All these people online also think it can't possibly happen again or that were guaranteed something because of how bad the summer was...

And I've also seen a couple more reliable mets here talk about they aren't feeling this winter at all in general... Like at least last year had average snow here despite all the warmth. That's the part that is scaring me. We've actually had two solid winters for snow in a row... It's the same thing with the Gulf storms over there I feel like. Y'all been lucky over there even if a lot of people got shafted. Just the whole broad idea of big storms back to back

At some point we're both gonna have a truly sucky winter
 
The winter of 2015-2016 was awful. This is the only event I remember and it was all-sleet while DC-NYC got a thousand inches of snow for the third time in like six years. 💀

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I have absolutely no memory of anything frozen in Dallas that year

There was a killer tornado on the day after Christmas though! Actually the closest I've come... Even from growing up in Alabama! So that's great
 
The winter of 2015-2016 was awful. This is the only event I remember and it was all-sleet while DC-NYC got a thousand inches of snow for the third time in like six years. 💀

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The timing was good though. I enjoyed tailgating before the NFC Championship game in Charlotte with snow on the ground
 
The winter of 2015-2016 was awful. This is the only event I remember and it was all-sleet while DC-NYC got a thousand inches of snow for the third time in like six years. 💀

january_22-23_2016_nc_snowmap.gif


January_2016_United_States_blizzard_RSI_map.png
Hot take - I loved that storm. Thundersleet with the convective line as well, and around 3” of pure sleet which took a long time to melt. I’d take that all over again. When it comes to wintry wx I am not picky about ptypes anymore. I even enjoyed that all sleet event last winter
 
Hot take - I loved that storm. Thundersleet with the convective line as well, and around 3” of pure sleet which took a long time to melt. I’d take that all over again. When it comes to wintry wx I am not picky about ptypes anymore. I even enjoyed that all sleet event last winter
That was the storm that got me into weather -- it was a bust, but Euro predicting 2ft in central NC got me hooked.
 
That was the storm that got me into weather -- it was a bust, but Euro predicting 2ft in central NC got me hooked.
That one just ultimately ended up with the primary low to far north before the transfer, but as the theme of El Niños go, it’s was a haymaker for the MA. southern stream bowling ball with confluence. can always try that again in a better way or worse way. Typically big El Niño events make this more possible
 
Hot take - I loved that storm. Thundersleet with the convective line as well, and around 3” of pure sleet which took a long time to melt. I’d take that all over again. When it comes to wintry wx I am not picky about ptypes anymore. I even enjoyed that all sleet event last winter

Tony @dsaur and I would take that in a heartbeat! And then came the amazing historic >2” of sleet that I got here in Jan of 2025. My total incl. snow was 2.9”. I never thought I’d see that much down here! It took 4-5 days to melt in the shade and kept shaded roads in bad shape for several days.
 
Hot take - I loved that storm. Thundersleet with the convective line as well, and around 3” of pure sleet which took a long time to melt. I’d take that all over again. When it comes to wintry wx I am not picky about ptypes anymore. I even enjoyed that all sleet event last winter

Yea I would totally take that storm and there were multiple chances that winter at least several times where work closed because of the ice


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That was the storm that got me into weather -- it was a bust, but Euro predicting 2ft in central NC got me hooked.
I think that was my big issue with it. I was in GSO then and it was looking like it was going to be a big snowstorm, and then it became all sleet and DC got another million inch snow storm, and that was hard to bear after how much it snowed in DC in the first half of the 2010s. Plus, the DC crowd over at AmericanWx could be a "spicy" bunch and it was hard to bear them getting rewarded yet again.

I'm not against big sleetstorms in and of themselves.
 
January 2016 did have an okay stretch here(I see 2.5 inches one day) but February was 🗑️

Still way below normal on our average snow. That looks to be the only real event here

Not great. Sounds like this year. Winter was over after January

Id rather have 82/83 or 97/98. At least there was more than one day it did something. That would be annoying to only have one marginal event

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