Wintry Winter 26-27

[annunciated]

Admittedly CANSIPs is a bit biased towards a Modoki-Nino here but has indeed strengthened it in its August run, and likewise the atmospheric response. It does appear to favor the transition to a Nina as well later in '27, but we're moreso relying on analogs for favoring that forecast rather than good data lol.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

CanSIPS and the CFS have been bullish on a cold January-March SE winter. Way too early to put much stock in these, but both have been quite persistent. We're due for a banger winter.

 

[SD]

CanSIPS and the CFS have been bullish on a cold January-March SE winter. Way too early to put much stock in these, but both have been quite persistent. We're due for a banger winter.

It's interesting that the get to a similar result with different looks IMO

 

[BullCityWx]

 

[NBAcentel]

View attachment 197155

Looks like a pattern with pacific oriented cold air masses but you involve northern stream energy under the Canadian block with that southern energy you score

 

[NBAcentel]

The golden standard

 

[BullCityWx]

Looks like a pattern with pacific oriented cold air masses but you involve northern stream energy under the Canadian block with that southern energy you score

just to zoom out a little

 

[GaWx]

just to zoom out a little

View attachment 197158

This is a fairly canonical Nino H5 look with NN at 2m in the SE. (see below). But analogs suggest that Dec will likely be much warmer in the SE than this shows. Then cooling becomes more likely within Jan to March.

 

[GaWx]

Jan on the new Euro is NN much of northern SE to slightly BN further S:

 

[SD]

I still 100% believe if this nino were going to peak at weak or mod the hype would be astronomical

 

[Rain Cold]

I'm really interested to see how strong and how persistent blocking is. It's too early to know that. But if we get some big blocking, especially with Nino rapidly collapsing, it's going to be fun.

 

[Rain Cold]

What do the analogos say about a central based super nino that collapses in February with big blicking during the winter?

 

[SD]

What do the analogos say about a central based super nino that collapses in February with big blicking during the winter?

99-00 or insert whatever giant year your want.




Yes I know that's not a nino

 

[annunciated]

What do the analogos say about a central based super nino that collapses in February with big blicking during the winter?

I don't think it'll necessarily collapse in February, and even less-so regarding the atmospheric response. We're likely in for the entire winter wrt the historic Nino.

 

[Stone Cold Heel]

99-00 or insert whatever giant year your want.




Yes I know that's not a nino

Carolina Crusher 2: Snow Boogaloo!

 

[Rain Cold]

Lolol

 

[annunciated]

Lolol
View attachment 197167

The Southeastern frontier I can agree with (aside from "Winter Battle-Zone")...but what in the hell is everything else especially up north lol

 

[Tarheel1]

Too much optimism in here

GSP- cold rain
RAH - cold rain
CAE- cool rain
ATL- cold rain
CLT- 10 min of sleet, then cold rain
Ames- 25”, mostly in Dec/Jan
Lets cook!

 

[CaryWx]

Lolol
View attachment 197167

Beat me by 18 lousy mins RC.

 

[SD]

Lolol
View attachment 197167

Mild butting up against the polar vortex is really something

 

[Arcc]

What do the analogos say about a central based super nino that collapses in February with big blicking during the winter?

It gonna rain?

 

[NBAcentel]

I will say this El Niños are more seasoned to poking at the poplar vortex due to the PT or sometimes the PT getting misplaced around the Bering sea. Remember last winters PV disruption was due to a constant barrage of troughing in around Alaska/bering sea. Pattern during is is normally mild. Anyway we can get blocking especially mid/later on in winter is important

 

[Snowfan]

I will say this El Niños are more seasoned to poking at the poplar vortex due to the PT or sometimes the PT getting misplaced around the Bering sea

I wonder how this Godzilla El Nino will do this winter. We've never seen any big El Nino like this ever.

 

[BullCityWx]

Lolol
View attachment 197167

I mean it does kinda follow 85

 

[ChrisAMB]

I wonder how this Godzilla El Nino will do this winter. We've never seen any big El Nino like this ever.

Fun reading about the (probable) next biggest one in 1877-1878. American Elm was leafing out in Lexington, KY in February 1878. https://chadevansweather.substack.com/p/local-weather-history-the-nearly

 

[ChrisAMB]

Box elder budding in Iowa in February 1878.

 

[ChrisAMB]

Meanwhile,

 

[Snowfan]

I'll take it.

 

[annunciated]

View attachment 197185
I'll take it.

I do like how DW explains a few things but this is not a great forecast to be making, especially as we still yet do not know the smaller patterns that may affect snow totals, especially in the East Coast. I am perhaps nitpicking as well, but it also isn't great to label the southern portions of the mild West Coast as higher chances of snow. I get his message, though.

 

[Brent]

I know it's been warm but I couldn't believe this when I pulled up the stats earlier

At some point this has to end? Right? We can't just torch for 2 years in a row without people asking questions

September 2025 41st warmest
October 2025 8th warmest
November 2025 11th warmest
December 2025 7th warmest
January 2026 72nd warmest(only because of one week still had near record highs several times)
February 2026 2nd warmest
March 2026 all time warmest
April 2026 13th warmest
May 2026 41st warmest
June 2026 38th warmest
July 2026 18th warmest

 

[GaWx]

Box elder budding in Iowa in February 1878.

View attachment 197182

Meanwhile the SE had a cold Jan of 1878, which gave Asheville >8” of snow.

 

[superjames1992]

Drama!

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Apparently this is from the Euro seasonal data from the August run showing slightly above normal snowfall anomalies(cm not in) for the northern SE US into the mid Atlantic/Appalachians. If we get periodic episodes of cold air dropping down into the active southern stream wave train, I could see it, but also am cautious at the same time. We’ll see how it changes over the next few months.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[GaWx]

Drama!

1. This almost sounds like sarcasm from Maue. Otherwise, this sounds like it’s overly dramatic looking for likes/clicks. But I’m not trying to downplay this upcoming extraordinary event either as it’s projected to obliterate the previous on record strongest Nino.
Opinions about Maue here?

2. He originally said this way back in April:

Weather expert fears this year’s ‘mega El Nino’ could rival 1877 record

Meteorologist Ryan Maue says the upcoming 'mega El Niño' could be the strongest since the 1877 event that wiped out 4% of the Earth's population due to heat waves, drought and pestilence

Weather expert fears this year’s ‘mega El Nino’ could rival 1877 record - The Tribune

Scientists are raising concerns about a possible “mega” El Niño event developing in 2026–2027, which could rank among the most powerful in recorded history and potentially rival the devastating 1877–78 El Niño.

www.tribuneindia.com

 

[Rain Cold]

1. This almost sounds like sarcasm from Maue. Otherwise, this sounds like it’s overly dramatic looking for likes/clicks. But I’m not trying to downplay this upcoming extraordinary event either as it’s projected to obliterate the previous on record strongest Nino.
Opinions about Maue here?

2. He originally said this way back in April:

Weather expert fears this year’s ‘mega El Nino’ could rival 1877 record

Meteorologist Ryan Maue says the upcoming 'mega El Niño' could be the strongest since the 1877 event that wiped out 4% of the Earth's population due to heat waves, drought and pestilence

Weather expert fears this year’s ‘mega El Nino’ could rival 1877 record - The Tribune

Scientists are raising concerns about a possible “mega” El Niño event developing in 2026–2027, which could rank among the most powerful in recorded history and potentially rival the devastating 1877–78 El Niño.

www.tribuneindia.com

Probably engagement farming. The anomaly might break all records, but will it do so relative to the warmer waters around 3.4? That's what matters.

 

[GaWx]

Probably engagement farming. The anomaly might break all records, but will it do so relative to the warmer waters around 3.4? That's what matters.

I agree 100% with you about the importance of how warm it will be in relation to surrounding tropical waters! But even taking that into account (aka “RONI”), it’s currently projected to obliterate even RONI records that go back to 1950 by nearly one full degree C! The current record monthly warm RONI is the 1982-3 Nino, which peaked in the mid +2 range. This one is projected to peak in the mid +3 range!!

 

[Wulfer]

Lolol
View attachment 197167

Didn't we see this last year? As usual TN looks like a Blizzard and Ga. is faked into thinking they might get a snowstorm.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

The CFS consistently says patience will be in order come December. If true, cliff diving straight into the El Niño will be rampant here for the holidays lol.

 

[Tsappfrog20]

The CFS consistently says patience will be in order come December. If true, cliff diving straight into the El Niño will be rampant here for the holidays lol.
View attachment 197191

I think all of us would be ok with a repeat of last year for Winter at least I would


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[Drizzle Snizzle]

The CFS consistently says patience will be in order come December. If true, cliff diving straight into the El Niño will be rampant here for the holidays lol.
View attachment 197191

I don't like how it shows the coldest anomalies will be in March. I just hope the cold doesn't wait until Late February which will be too late for snow lovers in most areas.