Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

[CaryWx]

I wonder if this will possibly go something like 1998-99 did. If so, someone in NC and SC may be in for a MAJOR icestorm in late Dec or early Jan. Maybe both months just like that winter.

yeeeahh, I fell like this presents ice stormy somewhere later on.

 

[MRKEVIN7575]

Any opinions?

 

[Chazwin]

I wonder if this will possibly go something like 1998-99 did. If so, someone in NC and SC may be in for a MAJOR icestorm in late Dec or early Jan. Maybe both months just like that winter.

I’m not sure that is a good analog because if you remember, December 1998 was very mild for the first half of the month. I think CLT might have had a 80 degree high the first week of that month. Things just flipped very quickly right before Christmas. With MJO following the track it’s on right now, like Webber has noted, we may be setting up to see below average for most of the month. Also as others have mentioned, that
-NAO/-PNA combo later this month is gonna spell a lot of CAD

 

[Myfrotho704_]

All 3 major ens looking rather similar

 

[tennessee storm]

All 3 major ens looking rather similar View attachment 176208View attachment 176209View attachment 176210

Ridge out west not very tall on those… meh kind of

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol finally watched the OKC met who loves to hype try and predict the winter he wasn't very optimistic I was on the very southern edge of the "better conditions". Very average on everything pretty much

I don't trust these forecasts at all but that was quite underwhelming

He also didn't expect much til after Christmas

Southern Plains winters tend to be much more ENSO dependent than the Southeast US when it comes to snow at least.

The Texas Panhandle, west-central Oklahoma into western Kansas is the part of the conus that often consistently responds the most to La Niña and El Niño snowfall-wise

 

[Brent]

Southern Plains winters tend to be much more ENSO dependent than the Southeast US when it comes to snow at least.

The Texas Panhandle, west-central Oklahoma into western Kansas is the part of the conus that often consistently responds the most to La Niña and El Niño snowfall-wise

Yeah I don't really think anyone knows if we're using that

We've had La Ninas barely snow and be absolutely horribly warm and we've also had some of the biggest winters recently on La Nina

I do feel like the better chances will be in January February though. The track record before that has certainly been iffy

 

[Tarheel1]

Ridge out west not very tall on those… meh kind of

They’re ensembles, that’s why they are smoothed out .

 

[Rain Cold]

They’re ensembles, that’s why they are smoothed out .

Which tells you a non-trivial number don't have a big ridge out west.

The signal for blocking in Canada is good though. The pattern being suggested looks like a pretty good pattern for the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and Northeast, with wedging into the Southeast.

 

[tennessee storm]

The lack of snowfall up in Canada this time year is eye catching be honest .