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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Does anyone else get tired of seeing these same old forecasts every year? I wish someone would go out on a limb and not just use the usual suspects. I’d actually respect it more if someone just called for a foot in Florida.

Right? It's basically showing average here down to Texas... Like whats the point 🤣

Predict nothing or predict 2 feet then I might be impressed
 
CJ hopped on the hype train this morning 🚂 View attachment 175372

Yeah I don’t put much stock in ANY long range forecasting but clown maps are fun. 6 inches of snow for mby would be the best winter in Im not sure how long.

Not sure why it came out pretty bullish considering the Nina, negative statistics. We got any more of them -epo/+tnh patterns we liked last year?
 
This map is absolutely useless, it tells me nothing. Show me how it compares to a model climatology and maybe you got something

Lol I keep telling people here its just climo

I've never seen so many people get hyped over a simple climo map... Maybe the hot and dry pattern and it's never been this hot before is getting to people
 
Raindance from americanwx is trying to throw us a bone for winter fwiw

Those that follow Raindance know he’s well respected due to his pretty good record and very extensive research/detailed presentation. The highlight for the SE and nearby areas is a cold January that’s nearly as cold as Jan of 2025 (mainly 4-5 BN). This is a result a 40% weighting of each of 2014, the coldest SE Jan since 1986, and the cold 2025:

IMG_4837.png
 
This looks Farmers Almanacish and is not Accuweather’s forecast as it isn’t a forecast:

Whoever actually put this together says things for all regions that always occur. My favorite is “some rain” in NC/VA. Really? Cold periods in the N Plains? Imagine that! Mainly dry in the desert SW? Shocking!

Rain, snow, or ice in Ohio Valley to NE US? What a revelation! Will there also be sunshine? Severe storms in GA, AL, and FL? It usually occurs at least once per winter though I suppose this may be the closest thing to halfway resembling a forecast.
IMG_4838.png
 
This looks Farmers Almanacish and is not Accuweather’s forecast as it isn’t a forecast:

Whoever actually put this together says things for all regions that always occur. My favorite is “some rain” in NC/VA. Really? Cold periods in the N Plains? Imagine that! Mainly dry in the desert SW? Shocking!

Rain, snow, or ice in Ohio Valley to NE US? What a revelation! Will there also be sunshine? Severe storms in GA, AL, and FL? It usually occurs at least once per winter though I suppose this may be the closest thing to halfway resembling a forecast.
View attachment 175470
Brilliant
 
This looks Farmers Almanacish and is not Accuweather’s forecast as it isn’t a forecast:

Whoever actually put this together says things for all regions that always occur. My favorite is “some rain” in NC/VA. Really? Cold periods in the N Plains? Imagine that! Mainly dry in the desert SW? Shocking!

Rain, snow, or ice in Ohio Valley to NE US? What a revelation! Will there also be sunshine? Severe storms in GA, AL, and FL? It usually occurs at least once per winter though I suppose this may be the closest thing to halfway resembling a forecast.
View attachment 175470
This is the most ridiculous map I’ve ever seen.
 
This looks Farmers Almanacish and is not Accuweather’s forecast as it isn’t a forecast:

Whoever actually put this together says things for all regions that always occur. My favorite is “some rain” in NC/VA. Really? Cold periods in the N Plains? Imagine that! Mainly dry in the desert SW? Shocking!

Rain, snow, or ice in Ohio Valley to NE US? What a revelation! Will there also be sunshine? Severe storms in GA, AL, and FL? It usually occurs at least once per winter though I suppose this may be the closest thing to halfway resembling a forecast.
View attachment 175470
No winter battlezone. Toss it.

rain, snow, or ice? I'll make that prediction for the whole continent and be correct.
 
Those that follow Raindance know he’s well respected due to his pretty good record and very extensive research/detailed presentation. The highlight for the SE and nearby areas is a cold January that’s nearly as cold as Jan of 2025 (mainly 4-5 BN). This is a result a 40% weighting of each of 2014, the coldest SE Jan since 1986, and the cold 2025:

View attachment 175463
Larry, I hope he realizes we will have a -qbo for this winter, which I'm not sure he factored that in.
 
Larry, I hope he realizes we will have a -qbo for this winter, which I'm not sure he factored that in.

Dang, Kevin, you’re right as 2 rabbits. It looks like he didn’t factor in the strongly -QBO! Good catch! His 2 prime analogs of 2024-5 and 2013-4 were exact opposites of 2025-6 with solid +QBOs. :(
I plan to post a question to him shortly about that.
 
Dang, Kevin, you’re right as 2 rabbits. It looks like he didn’t factor in the strongly -QBO! Good catch! His 2 prime analogs of 2024-5 and 2013-4 were exact opposites of 2025-6 with solid +QBOs. :(
I plan to post a question to him shortly about that.
I still am cautiously optimistic that we will have a few real cold shots this winter or a few weeks stretch of cold weather here
 
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Dang, Kevin, you’re right as 2 rabbits. It looks like he didn’t factor in the strongly -QBO! Good catch! His 2 prime analogs of 2024-5 and 2013-4 were exact opposites of 2025-6 with solid +QBOs. :(
I plan to post a question to him shortly about that.
From a quick research stint on the web, an easterly (or negative) QBO would lead to a weakened PV and more chances for cold air to push very far south. We have already seen this happening around the globe as the polar vortex is almost non-existent.
 
I'll be curious to see how much these coastal storms we've had will aid in mixing/dropping temperatures in the western Atlantic later into autumn and early winter. Those temps have a decent moderating impact on our weather for those of us within ~1 hour of the coast. This past January we got down to 45F at North Myrtle Beach and we know how that turned out with our borderline blizzard. Just anecdotal when the water temps are above normal we seems to get fronts hanging up on the coast more often and not clearing out and really letting the continental airmass take over.

As a side note it's funny to see the northerners shocked the water gets that cold here. Seems like they're told they can take a dip year round by realtors before they move down. Lol.
 
Past 7-8 years the NPAC ridge has been a staple...hopefully the building a NPAC low on the ensembles has some staying powers into winter

js9FvcGrcu.pngecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_10day-1609600.png
 
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