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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

Allan has some great insights on his Patreon page if y’all are not following him already…

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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
Allan has some great insights on his Patreon page if y’all are not following him already…

2fc49f429db832ab6e0110db9784df53.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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As others have mentioned, Allan is pretty levelheaded. I've seen him in the past post stuff showing higher chances of warmth. So, this post is great news for us weather nerds.
 
Mitch West said:
Good video. And I mean he's right. The ridge risk is there & the overnight weeklies really showed it's ugly head with it. I do wonder how everything adjust to the favorable MJO progression.
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Yep, But this certainly changes my expectations from just a couple of days ago. That looked pretty disappointing for our December to remember... lol
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Yep, But this certainly changes my expectations from just a couple of days ago. That looked pretty disappointing for our December to remember... lol
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Hey Frosty,
The first half of Dec in the SE US doesn’t and hasn’t at all looked to be “memorable” per ensemble model consensus. It’s actually been looking mild in the means due to a strong SE ridge. But there’s a realistic possibility that it could be cold dominated in the 2nd half of Dec considering the good chance for phase 8 MJO followed by phase 1 combined with being over 2 weeks past the SSW.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Yep, But this certainly changes my expectations from just a couple of days ago. That looked pretty disappointing for our December to remember... lol
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I think we're outside of the ensemble range, and the weeklies honestly are terrible IMO. I believe it's a complete unknown what comes to pass mid December. BAM was all for cold explosion last week, now they're not. Same as all of us.

I'd like the weeklies to show phase 8/+PNA, and for the jet and the Alaskan ridge to push east, pushing the SE ridge out, but it's not doing it right now on the models, but that doesn't mean it won't. Just all options on the table at the moment for mid Dec. I think if we wait, and phase 8 gets into ensemble range, the models will hopefully correct and start showing cold air getting to us. I'm trying to have patience, but at the same time not get my hopes up.
 
SnowNiner said:
I think we're outside of the ensemble range, and the weeklies honestly are terrible IMO. I believe it's a complete unknown what comes to pass mid December. BAM was all for cold explosion last week, now they're not. Same as all of us.

I'd like the weeklies to show phase 8/+PNA, and for the jet and the Alaskan ridge to push east, pushing the SE ridge out, but it's not doing it right now on the models, but that doesn't mean it won't. Just all options on the table at the moment for mid Dec. I think if we wait, and phase 8 gets into ensemble range, the models will hopefully correct and start showing cold air getting to us. I'm trying to have patience, but at the same time not get my hopes up.
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I couldn’t agree more. This is IMO why I look more at indicies in the long range as opposed to model output. Right now we see both the AO and NAO looking to go back negative after a couple days slightly positive. The PNA, slightly negative right now is already showing signs of going positive just after the first of month. Finally, the MJO while in phase 7, looks to be moving steadily into Phase 8.
 
GaWx said:
Hey Mack,
I know that you know that the extended portions of control runs are of very little value.
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Yes sir! I just find the snow holes on the maps and the totals are amusing! It’s just fun to look at, and the accuracy of my wooly worm!
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yes sir! I just find the snow holes on the maps and the totals are amusing! It’s just fun to look at, and the accuracy of my wooly worm!
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I had someone else here last night talking about their worms mean we're gonna have a historic blizzard like 4 times this winter

I'll be waiting

Just like last February 🤣🤣🤣

I'm trying to be a realist on social media but nobody likes that. Hey if they wanna get mad when it doesn't happen that's not my problem
 
Don't get me wrong it's probably going to snow at some point(it's been over 100 years since we didn't measure in a winter so I'm not exactly worried about it right now)... But most years we struggle to get over 6 inches at once is my point 😂 it's a lot of 1-3 inch storms usually which isn't enough to shut us down and stop everything I think is the issue and why people are never happy but the unrealistic expectations here are just insane. I mean they've lived here longer than I have and I know the late 2010s had some absolutely embarrassing winters here
 
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Brent said:
Don't get me wrong it's probably going to snow at some point(it's been over 100 years since we didn't measure in a winter so I'm not exactly worried about it right now)... But most years we struggle to get over 6 inches at once is my point 😂 it's a lot of 1-3 inch storms usually which isn't enough to shut us down and stop everything I think is the issue and why people are never happy but the unrealistic expectations here are just insane. I mean they've lived here longer than I have and I know the late 2010s had some absolutely embarrassing winters here
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I remember Springfield MO getting some really bad ice storms (and great snows) in the past because I used to service an account there. You would think if they can get drilled with winter weather, certainly Tulsa can.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
I remember Springfield MO getting some really bad ice storms (and great snows) in the past because I used to service an account there. You would think if they can get drilled with winter weather, certainly Tulsa can.
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We've had three storms over 6 inches this decade already... If you take out the snow hole in 23 and 24 it really hasn't been that bad I guess

And yeah we had a big ice storm in 2007

But the last part of the 2010s had 3 or 4 winters in a row not even measure more than 2 inches the whole winter. It must have been horrible
 
Brent said:
We've had three storms over 6 inches this decade already... If you take out the snow hole in 23 and 24 it really hasn't been that bad I guess

And yeah we had a big ice storm in 2007

But the last part of the 2010s had 3 or 4 winters in a row not even measure more than 2 inches the whole winter. It must have been horrible
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We have not had a below normal Dec in 12 years! 🤔👀👀
 
Tarheel1 said:
We have not had a below normal Dec in 12 years! 🤔👀👀
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Jan-Feb have always been the snowiest/coldest months here in the SE. I get wanting cold early and can appreciate it but it doesn’t match up to averages. Some say it has to happen early now or it won’t happen but I thought we were going to a neutral state. I get your no longer living in the SE also!
 
jeremyt said:
Jan-Feb have always been the snowiest/coldest months here in the SE. I get wanting cold early and can appreciate it but it doesn’t match up to averages. Some say it has to happen early now or it won’t happen but I thought we were going to a neutral state. I get your no longer living in the SE also!
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The longer this holds off until later in Dec the better. If it is to cycle. We just aren't climo until at least the Solstice
 
jeremyt said:
Jan-Feb have always been the snowiest/coldest months here in the SE. I get wanting cold early and can appreciate it but it doesn’t match up to averages. Some say it has to happen early now or it won’t happen but I thought we were going to a neutral state. I get your no longer living in the SE also!
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Yeah cold weather on December is such a waste anyways …. January February right time
 
CaryWx said:
The longer this holds off until later in Dec the better. If it is to cycle. We just aren't climo until at least the Solstice
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I think we will take what we can get , when we can get it but I know the past few years the December cold has been real cold and led to suppression. I would love to see a 2000 Jan-Feb snow storm, I’d even settle for a 2010 Christmas event ! 😂. Either way we’ll get what we get .
 
By the way, screw the bias corrected Euro MJO plot. If they want to bias correct it, they need to be adding amplitude, not reducing it on these diagrams given how it normally behaves.

Anyway, the GEFS and Euro seem to have a consistent idea here of pushing the MJO east out of the MC/W Pac, then after the initial surge east, there is renewed convection in the W Pacific (Phase 7), before a secondary push out into what I believe will be Phase 8-1-2. The GEFS is the slowest of the models with that progression, and it often does a pretty good job with that.

Nov 26 EPS MJO.png

Nov 26 GEFS MJO.png



Here on the Euro plots you can see this progression with the push east, then the slowdown and renewed convective signal in the W Pac in the 3rd image, before a renewed progression to the east (images are from late Nov to late Dec).

Nov 26 VP Loop.gif


Here are Paul Roundy's thoughts (on X) on the MJO progression thru December (seems pretty typical with a sizable MJO wave moving east during a La Nina):

"The signal is presently being controlled by superposition of a slow eastward-moving signal now entering the West Pacific, and a fast signal superimposed on it that results in loops out and in along the trajectory in RMM space. The low frequency part will contribute toward a very slow progression through phases 6, 7, 8, 1, and possibly 2, but the faster signal superimposed will lead the index to surge outward to high amplitude, then back toward the center, then out again. The biggest wildcards regard the faster signal superimposed on the slow one. If they're strong enough, they could cause the signal to move into the circle, then surge outward again toward high amplitude. It's likely that the last week of December will be in phases 8-1."


So, overall, the good news is that this is a slow moving MJO wave that is getting out of the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific, but with complex interactions that are causing the loop de loops. In the end, I believe it will be a net positive for the pattern as we go thru the second half of Dec into early Jan.

After this first week of Dec, I still believe there will be some jet retraction due to -EAMT-like conditions with low pressure running thru E Asia, but we'll see as SE ridging is losing that battle here in early Dec.

But thereafter, hopefully the MJO progression combined with what should be improving conditions in E Asia with the EAMT situation should help to extend the Pac jet more and get us into improving western ridging.

Blocking is always hard to predict, so we'll have to see on that, but I think there's more reason than not to believe we see some renewed blocking in mid to late Dec.
 
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griteater said:
By the way, screw the bias corrected Euro MJO plot. If they want to bias correct it, they need to be adding amplitude, not reducing it on these diagrams given how it normally behaves.

Anyway, the GEFS and Euro seem to have a consistent idea here of pushing the MJO east out of the MC/W Pac, then after the initial surge east, there is renewed convection in the W Pacific (Phase 7), before a secondary push out into what I believe will be Phase 8-1-2. The GEFS is the slowest of the models with that progression, and it often does a pretty good job with that.

View attachment 177276

View attachment 177277



Here on the Euro plots you can see this progression with the push east, then the slowdown and renewed convective signal in the W Pac in the 3rd image, before a renewed progression to the east (images are from late Nov to late Dec).

View attachment 177278


Here are Paul Roundy's thoughts (on X) on the MJO progression thru December (seems pretty typical with a sizable MJO waving moving east during a La Nina):

"The signal is presently being controlled by superposition of a slow eastward-moving signal now entering the West Pacific, and a fast signal superimposed on it that results in loops out and in along the trajectory in RMM space. The low frequency part will contribute toward a very slow progression through phases 6, 7, 8, 1, and possibly 2, but the faster signal superimposed will lead the index to surge outward to high amplitude, then back toward the center, then out again. The biggest wildcards regard the faster signal superimposed on the slow one. If they're strong enough, they could cause the signal to move into the circle, then surge outward again toward high amplitude. It's likely that the last week of December will be in phases 8-1."


So, overall, the good news is that this is a slow moving MJO wave that is getting out of the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific, but with complex interactions that are causing the loop de loops. In the end, I believe it will be a net positive for the pattern as we go thru the second half of Dec into early Jan.

After this first week of Dec, I still believe there will be some jet retraction due to -EAMT-like conditions with low pressure running thru E Asia, but we'll see as SE ridging is losing that battle here in early Dec.

But thereafter, hopefully the MJO progression combined with what should be improving conditions in E Asia with the EAMT situation should help to extend the Pac jet more and get us into improving western ridging.

Blocking is always hard to predict, so we'll have to see on that, but I think there's more reason than not to believe we see some renewed blocking in mid to late Dec.
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Thank you! The GFS is already showing a return of the block. But it IS the GFS OP, after all.
 
griteater said:
By the way, screw the bias corrected Euro MJO plot. If they want to bias correct it, they need to be adding amplitude, not reducing it on these diagrams given how it normally behaves.

Anyway, the GEFS and Euro seem to have a consistent idea here of pushing the MJO east out of the MC/W Pac, then after the initial surge east, there is renewed convection in the W Pacific (Phase 7), before a secondary push out into what I believe will be Phase 8-1-2. The GEFS is the slowest of the models with that progression, and it often does a pretty good job with that.

View attachment 177276

View attachment 177277



Here on the Euro plots you can see this progression with the push east, then the slowdown and renewed convective signal in the W Pac in the 3rd image, before a renewed progression to the east (images are from late Nov to late Dec).

View attachment 177278


Here are Paul Roundy's thoughts (on X) on the MJO progression thru December (seems pretty typical with a sizable MJO wave moving east during a La Nina):

"The signal is presently being controlled by superposition of a slow eastward-moving signal now entering the West Pacific, and a fast signal superimposed on it that results in loops out and in along the trajectory in RMM space. The low frequency part will contribute toward a very slow progression through phases 6, 7, 8, 1, and possibly 2, but the faster signal superimposed will lead the index to surge outward to high amplitude, then back toward the center, then out again. The biggest wildcards regard the faster signal superimposed on the slow one. If they're strong enough, they could cause the signal to move into the circle, then surge outward again toward high amplitude. It's likely that the last week of December will be in phases 8-1."


So, overall, the good news is that this is a slow moving MJO wave that is getting out of the Maritime Continent and Western Pacific, but with complex interactions that are causing the loop de loops. In the end, I believe it will be a net positive for the pattern as we go thru the second half of Dec into early Jan.

After this first week of Dec, I still believe there will be some jet retraction due to -EAMT-like conditions with low pressure running thru E Asia, but we'll see as SE ridging is losing that battle here in early Dec.

But thereafter, hopefully the MJO progression combined with what should be improving conditions in E Asia with the EAMT situation should help to extend the Pac jet more and get us into improving western ridging.

Blocking is always hard to predict, so we'll have to see on that, but I think there's more reason than not to believe we see some renewed blocking in mid to late Dec.
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That small area of renewed convection looks like a Kelvin wave, which is what’s probably messing with the RMM charts
 
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