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Wintry Winter 25-26 Winter Battle Zone

GaWx said:
Looking at the new Euro monthly for Jan vs the prior run, Jan is much colder. I’m guessing that this is due at least partially to the significant % of potential SSWE’s. This SSWE was too far out to be predicted on the prior monthly run. Note that Dec is about the same, which is consistent with the idea that due to lag that Jan wouid be much more affected.
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Yeah, that potentially does make sense. If we can time things out right we may really have something later in December into January. Just so the record is clear, I'm not ruling out things setting up shop earlier, but it doesn't look like a slam dunk to me (which it rarely does 🤣).
 
I am going to Gatlinburg December 11th-14th so I am going to be watching the weeks & days leading up to this timeframe like crazy. Doing the Polar express with the family in Bryson City that Friday the 12th. Going to need a big ole Winter storm to roll in so I can relive the entire movie with my family. Seems pretty simple I think. Lol
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Mitch West said:
I am going to Gatlinburg December 11th-14th so I am going to be watching the weeks & days leading up to this timeframe like crazy. Doing the Polar express with the family in Bryson City that Friday the 12th. Going to need a big ole Winter storm to roll in so I can relive the entire movie with my family. Seems pretty simple I think. Lol
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Gonna be in Blowing Rock same weekend, doing the Tweetsie Christmas train ride. So going to be watching closely too
 
Brent said:
Looks accurate a big snow hole here
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Just like i predicted. You can take it to the bank when i forecast it and now you’re seeing models verify my forecast. I know you haven’t heard of me much but im the new sheriff in town on this forum.


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GaWx said:
Ouch, Tony! Maybe those jackets are mad about last Saturday? But if so, they shouldn’t have taken it out on you of all people!
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I know, I've been a Tech fan since I was a wee tike, but I do hate the actual relatives of their mascot, lol. I try to think of stings as nature's inoculations, and that all that poison fixed something that was out of whack. And it must have really been out of whack to require 20 stings. One was in my pants leg and stung me three hours after the initial attack. Talk about kicking someone when they're down! I'm hoping lows in the 20's will send them underground much deeper, but I don't think one night will do it.
 
Yep you can see the push towards the western hemisphere (as expected) in early December on the weeklies.

Big, slow lumbering MJO events are pretty on brand for a La Niña winter with a warm Indo-Pacific Warm Pool, as westward propagating Rossby Waves more readily couple w/ the MJO while zonal advection of moist static energy is hampered by the dry anomalies over the central pacific & moist anomalies over Indonesia (which interrupt the zonal MSE tendencies of the MJO),

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These zonal wind anomalies are particularly impressive & are setting the stage for subsequent MJO events later in winter to eventually change the ENSO base state.
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BHS1975 said:
Then torch after?
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January could be interesting too, especially if we get the December tropospheric pattern to anchor itself into the stratosphere.

I would heavily favor a milder February with a strong +NAM/AO. Oth, sometimes these winters marked by ENSO transition & heavy doses of +TNH like this year can go off-script and leave us cold anyway. Although I still think the atmosphere will have some sort of “hangover” regardless, if La Niña conditions deteriorate more quickly than expected that could change February’s outcome.

December’s overall forecast feels like a lay-up to me by comparison to the rest of the winter and spring
 
Even going back to this past month over N America, this year really isn’t going out of its way to deviate that much from the La Nina script & I don’t expect that to change much in December either

A ridge anomaly centered near the Hudson Bay with its axis nosing down into New Mexico or so is very on brand
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