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What is needed this winter

Mr. Golf

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Hi everyone. This year is going by fast with many things that have happened so far, which some are a little interesting to say the least. I know it's a little premature, but it looks like at least a weak niña this fall into winter. My question is based on the sst profile and experience that some have on this currently, what do we want to see happen or change before winter starts to have a better winter here instead of another ratter this year?
 

Ollie Williams

It's Rainin' Sideways!
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As @Myfrotho704_ put it, we need a +TNH. I don't know what we could look at in this range for that, but if anybody has more knowledge, please share.
The past few years when it seems like we’re gonna get a -EPO, tropical forcing moves into a bad phase, and instead of the -EPO, we just straight up get a +TNH, and get locked with a suppressed ridge around the gulf of Alaska, Which forces the PNA negative, idk why this bad timing thing happens often but it’s annoying
 

GaWx

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Mr. Golf

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The mjo is always concerning in winter and where it focuses. Perhaps it won't focus in the warm phases too much this winter.
 

superjames1992

Rates Will Overcome All
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In the end, we really just need the right ingredients to come together for a week or so for pretty much everyone on the board to meet their snowfall averages. A good pattern for much of the winter isn’t a guarantee of anything, and a bad pattern for most of the winter doesn’t preclude us from getting a lucky storm sandwiched in there somewhere.
 

Mr. Golf

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I saw a few flakes last winter in jonesboro. Nothing even close to any accumulation. I don't think we had one WWA here. Our average snow is always so low in my area that one event can make or break winter season. I believe if it is cold, December should be the month like most niñas are typically.
 
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I saw a few flakes last winter in jonesboro. Nothing even close to any accumulation. I don't think we had one WWA here. Our average snow is always so low in my area that one event can make or break winter season. I believe if it is cold, December should be the month like most niñas are typically.
Well if you are counting on it happening December. You can forget that... when was last December we had snow ice accumulations mount to anything around here lol
 
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