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Tropical Wave just off Africa as of 9/2/20: something to monitor in SE for midmonth

The 12z EPS is very bullish on some type of storm developing. The members In the SW quadrant are very interesting considering they're not gaining too much latitude and are heading west. Definitely not a pattern that screams re-curve, just a volatile one that we should watch closely. Also, the op develops 4 storms, so...
ecmwf-ensemble-avg-exatl-mslp_ens_min-0430400.pngecmwf-deterministic-exatl-mslp_anom-9998400.png
 
Ollie Williams said:
The 12z EPS is very bullish on some type of storm developing. The members In the SW quadrant are very interesting considering they're not gaining too much latitude and are heading west. Definitely not a pattern that screams re-curve, just a volatile one that we should watch closely. Also, the op develops 4 storms, so...
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Just to clarify, all but the one just off FL are from a different TW from the one I created this thread about, one that doesn’t come off Africa til Wednesday 9/9. I count ~12-13 of the 51 members in a possibly threatening position and a whopping 75% of the members with a TC from it. But it is way out in cartoonland and the prior run recurved all members OTS.
 
SD said:
I wouldn't write off a lot regarding the Atlantic at the moment. Any changes in the strength/placement of the upper low, changes in the strength of the potential systems, timing changes with the potential systems will have a massive impact on the end game.
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Man I've seen so many times where ensembles showed a huge threat and we watch after a couple days they are all recurve. Then I've seen storms like Isabel and Florence make the weird runs in on the coast.

The pattern evolves and each day brings new insight that changes major components.
 
I would watch for something home grown that latches on to a cold front and gets swept north north east over Florida or east coast maybe a few times this year
 
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