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Tropical TS Imelda

Mike_96 said:
This is a very touchy setup with this storm. Do not be surprised if there are still more shifts to come.
Click to expand...

Yep... NHC 5pm

"The NHC track forecast at days 4-5 maintains a
consensus approach and shows a slower eastward motion, but future track adjustments are likely as confidence increases."
 
Stormsfury said:
Euro firing warning shots about that kickback west at the end. 2nd run in a row
Click to expand...
It’s a definite possibility if Humberto leaves it behind. I know someone was mentioning Dennis in 1999 that got left behind by a trough after moving parallel to the coast, sat southeast of Cape Hatteras for a few days before swing back west and landfalling near Myrtle Beach as a strong tropical storm
 
If it gets left behind, the Euro shows some pretty stout ridging building in over top, which would force it back west for a while. It's a plausible solution.

Maybe it stays so weak and disorganized that it doesn't get pulled away as much by Humberto and stays closer to the coast. No model really shows that, though. And conditions don't really favor it.

I don't trust the Euro or the GFS, outside of 72 hours, tbh. Both got an absolute beat-down with this one.

Hurricane season is turning into winter. Go with the model that shows least snow. And go with the model that shows no landfall.
 
TD 9 had hardly been moving. This slower than expected movement has increased the chance it will stay away from US:

From the 11PM NHC discussion:

It is
notable to point out the system has been moving slower than
anticipated over the last 12-24 hours, and this could have
significant implications on its ultimate track. Even in the first
48 hours of the track, there is quite a bit of spread in the
north-south direction in both the deterministic and ensemble model
guidance. Faster tracks appear to interact more with the upper-level
trough to the west, resulting in a track closer to the Carolina
coastline, while slower tracks largely miss a direct interaction
with this feature, and turn sharply east faster as Hurricane
Humberto approaches from the east, eroding the mid-level ridging
steering TD9 northward. Because it has been moving slower than
expected, its becoming more likely its ultimate track will fall in
the slower and sharper east camp. In response, the overall track
guidance this cycle shifted slower and further east, and the NHC
track forecast was shifted in that direction.
 
I was getting a bit confident until the end of NHC discussion....two important "ifs"....

"Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if
the storm center remains offshore."
 
Henry2326 said:
I was getting a bit confident until the end of NHC discussion....two important "ifs"....

"Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if
the storm center remains offshore."
Click to expand...
Sounds like they are saying regardless of whether or not this ever gets to landfall heavy rain and gusty wind is possible if not likely for central and eastern portions of both North and South Carolina. Along with Eastern Florida and Georgia

Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk
 
Henry2326 said:
I was getting a bit confident until the end of NHC discussion....two important "ifs"....

"Even if this further offshore track pans out, the wind field is
expected to expand quite a bit, and given the expected storm
structure, a risk of significant heavy rainfall, storm surge, and
wind impacts is still possible for the southeast U.S. coast even if
the storm center remains offshore."
Click to expand...
Would make sense you'd pack the gradient with that big high over NE and the storm to the south.
 
0Z UKMET: stays OTS like every other UKMET and every Icon has done.

Reminder: Coincidentally or not, the UKMET and Icon were the two best models by far for Ian by being the furthest to the right/SE coming into SW FL.


0Z UKMET

ROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 76.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2025 0 22.0N 76.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 28.09.2025 12 23.2N 76.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 29.09.2025 24 24.6N 76.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 29.09.2025 36 26.7N 77.1W 998 43
0000UTC 30.09.2025 48 28.5N 77.4W 994 42
1200UTC 30.09.2025 60 29.2N 77.3W 991 38
0000UTC 01.10.2025 72 29.0N 75.9W 989 41
1200UTC 01.10.2025 84 29.7N 73.4W 987 47
0000UTC 02.10.2025 96 30.3N 69.6W 985 57
1200UTC 02.10.2025 108 31.6N 64.5W 984 54
0000UTC 03.10.2025 120 33.5N 59.8W 986 67
1200UTC 03.10.2025 132 34.8N 57.0W 992 48
0000UTC 04.10.2025 144 36.3N 56.0W 995 43
1200UTC 04.10.2025 156 37.7N 54.4W 999 39
0000UTC 05.10.2025 168 41.4N 49.5W 999 41
 
5am NHC discussion

"While it is too early to feel extremely confident, almost all of the reliable ensembles now keep the system offshore of the southeastern United States, though some impacts are still anticipated."

"The latest NHC forecast is shifted to the south and east, but is not nearly as far to the southeast as the latest consensus models due to continuity constraints."
 
All major 6Z models including hurricane models stay away from the US. As of the 5AM advisory, it finally started moving a little faster and that’s continuing now on the 8AM with SLP dropping to 1002 mb:

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE
BAHAMAS, WITH WINDS SOON INCREASING OVER THE BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 77.3W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
 
JalenW25 said:
Each run before it inches closer to the coast then this run gets yanked hard to the East

Sent from my A600DL using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah, watch the Levi Cowan video on Tropical tidbits. Great explanation.

I think we will see more of it today. There is no historical precedence built in the models for them to solidify. It's never happened before on the southeast coast. The models are adjusting to reality now and will continue through Monday-
 
Might be more more misses coming in the forecast.


NHC 11am

Structurally it has become better organized but not a tropical storm yet.

It has not accelerated and is moving slowly.

Because it has not accelerated it has remained south of the model tracks. So now to stay on the model tracks, it requires large speed changes in days 4 and 5 “and this still might not be fast enough” quote by NHC.

I’m assuming fast enough to catch the ride out of town.

Intensity in guidance is now a cat2, with NHC stating in 3-4 days expect additional intensification.
 
Henry2326 said:
Might be more more misses coming in the forecast.


NHC 11am

Structurally it has become better organized but not a tropical storm yet.

It has not accelerated and is moving slowly.

Because it has not accelerated it has remained south of the model tracks. So now to stay on the model tracks, it requires large speed changes in days 4 and 5 “and this still might not be fast enough” quote by NHC.

I’m assuming fast enough to catch the ride out of town.

Intensity in guidance is now a cat2, with NHC stating in 3-4 days expect additional intensification.
Click to expand...
Not really what they were saying. The entire context is that the east turn and rapid eastward acceleration might not be fast enough on their forecast and may need future changes. At no point to they even hint at a turn back to any direction other than east

The track guidance this cycle
has made another south and eastward shift, and the NHC track
forecast has been moved in that direction. In particular, the
track guidance continues to show much more east-northeastward
acceleration at the end of the forecast, requiring large speed
changes in days 4 and 5, and this still might not be fast enough.
The latest track forecast
 
Shaggy said:
Not really what they were saying. The entire context is that the east turn and rapid eastward acceleration might not be fast enough on their forecast and may need future changes. At no point to they even hint at a turn back to any direction other than east

The track guidance this cycle
has made another south and eastward shift, and the NHC track
forecast has been moved in that direction. In particular, the
track guidance continues to show much more east-northeastward
acceleration at the end of the forecast, requiring large speed
changes in days 4 and 5, and this still might not be fast enough.
The latest track forecast
Click to expand...
I just read it again. I disagree with you....but let's move on. There will be another writeup in 6 hours.
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
200 PM EDT Sun Sep 28 2025

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM IMELDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WNW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
ABOUT 370 MI...600 KM SE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

@SD
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Imelda Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025
800 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025

...IMELDA CONTINUES NORTHWARD AND A LITTLE STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 77.0W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
Deep convection over the center. 60mph at 11am. Wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a hurricane before the end of the day
 
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