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Tropical TS Dolly

Snowfan

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The invest was designated yesterday.
Shower activity associated with a large low pressure system located
several hundred miles southeast of Cape Cod, Massachusetts, remains
disorganized. The low is moving slowly eastward just north of the
warm waters of the Gulf Stream, and tropical or subtropical
development will remain unlikely if the system remains over
unfavorable ocean conditions. The system is expected to weaken as it
moves over even colder waters late today and on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 

Snowfan

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It's now Subtropical depression four.
000
WTNT34 KNHC 222040
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Subtropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020
500 PM AST Mon Jun 22 2020

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL OFFSHORE OF THE U.S. EAST
COAST...
...FORECAST TO MOVE AWAY FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.2N 65.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Depression Four
was located near latitude 38.2 North, longitude 65.7 West. The
subtropical depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 9
mph (15 km/h) and this motion is forecast to continue through
tonight. A motion toward the northeast is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and early Tuesday,
and the subtropical depression could briefly become a subtropical
storm. Slow weakening is expected to begin by Tuesday afternoon or
evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
 

Brent

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Well it's one storm closer to the record :p

Tropical Storm Dolly Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042020
1215 PM AST Tue Jun 23 2020

...DOLLY FORMS OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that Subtropical
Depression Four has strengthened, and maximum sustained winds are
now 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. In addition, the wind
field has contracted, and the system has made a transition to a
tropical storm.

A Special Advisory on Tropical Storm Dolly will be issued by 100 PM
AST (1700 UTC) to update the intensity forecast.


SUMMARY OF 1215 PM AST...1615 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 61.9W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg/Brown
 

ncskywarn

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Can someone correct me if I'm wrong. But did this not develop from the upper level cut off low that sat over the mid Atlantic coast for 3 or 4 days last week that then moved off the coast?
 
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