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Tropical TS Bret

EURO falls apart near the islands, or at least last run did right?
 
deltadog03 said:
EURO falls apart near the islands, or at least last run did right?
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Totally gone and never gets lower than 1005mb. I doubt now its going to do anything

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_eatl_52.png
 
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a broad area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the early to middle portion of next week while the system
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci
Click to expand...
50/70
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 172310
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 17 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of showers and
thunderstorms. This activity is starting to show some signs of
organization and environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development. A tropical depression is likely to form by
the early to middle portion of next week while the system moves
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
Click to expand...
60/80
 
Brent said:
I definitely see Bret coming from this but still doubt it'll be anything major or threatening. Very uncharacteristic for June either way
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Looking better tonight and starting to get that look for sure. Outflow seems to be improving a bit as well
 
Looks like a ton of uncertainty with this one as the models take it anywhere from the middle of the Atlantic to the western Caribbean. The one definite is that there is a lot unusually warm water that it will be moving over.
 
Water temps decline the further west this goes, combine that with El Niño tropical forcing over the Atlantic basin, and it being June this likely falls apart over the eastern Caribbean or curves north. Could definitely change but that seems like the most logical path right now
 
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in
association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles
southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the next day or two. This system is expected to
move westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic through the middle part of the week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake
Click to expand...
80/90
 
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
Showers and thunderstorms have become better organized in
association with a broad area of low pressure located several
hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the
next day or so. This system is forecast to move westward at 15 to
20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic with further
development through the middle part of the week. Additional
information on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Click to expand...
90/90
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 40.3W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of
this system.
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1687186942198.png
 
Moved kido down to Brunswick County. Caught a Forest Fire Day1/week 1. Surely not a Hurricane/ TS week 2.
 
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